Four NFL Honors candidates for the Falcons in 2024
Four NFL Honors candidates for the Falcons in 2024
The NFL Honors is a prestigious ceremony recognizing the best talent the NFL has to offer. From Lamar Jackson to Christian McCaffrey to Myles Garrett, these awards are a symbol of excellence revered by the football community. While Calais Campbell did win the Alan Page Community Award last year, the Atlanta Falcons haven’t been able to celebrate a winner of an NFL award earned on the field since legendary quarterback Matt Ryan swept the MVP and Offensive Player of the Year awards in 2016.
The Falcons have a litany of talented players and coaches who could find themselves holding some hardware, and in this exercise, we pinpoint four who could hear their names called at the next NFL Honors ceremony.
Kirk Cousins - Comeback Player of the Year
In 2023, Kirk Cousins was playing like a top-five quarterback in the NFL. The Vikings were able to start 4-4 and were fifth in yards per play despite having one of the worst running games (22nd in EPA/rush) because of Cousins’ stellar play. Then, Cousins’ magical run ended with a torn Achilles and questions about what could’ve been for the Minnesota Vikings.
This year, Cousins is back to continue his late-career success in a new area code, but a Comeback Player of the Year award would mean more than just a comeback after a devastating injury. It would be vindication against several narratives that surround the 35-year-old quarterback. With four primetime games on the schedule, Cousins can’t debunk the notion that he can’t perform when the lights are brightest. With a tough opening slate, Cousins can prove he can get the ball rolling early and often. With a strong season, Cousins can stage his comeback against the narrative that he is just a system quarterback.
Currently, Cousins sits third in the current odds (+500) to win Comeback Player of the Year behind the New York Jets’ Aaron Rodgers (+125) and Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow (+250).
Bijan Robinson - Offensive Player of the Year
If Cousins is going to shine, he will need support from his supporting cast. While the feature presentation for the passing game should be Drake London, running back Bijan Robinson should be a fun cameo for the Falcons.
Head coach Raheem Morris has made it abundantly clear that he wants to get the football in Robinson’s hands as early and as often as possible.
"In the simplest form you can put it, get the ball to Bijan as much as possible in the most ideal situations as possible.”
Robinson says that he expects his role in offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s offense to be akin to Christian McCaffrey’s role for the San Francisco 49ers, a do-it-all back made to cause matchup problems for linebackers..
Lightning doesn’t usually strike twice and the odds have Robinson as a longshot (8th-best odds, +2000) for the award. The odds look especially bleak when you compare it to his production from last season.
It’s important to remember that last season’s Falcons offense didn’t have much of a passing game to take the onus away from Bijan and Tyler Allgeier in the running game. The Falcons were one of the worst teams running the ball on early downs (27th in rushing EPA, 29th in rushing success rate) despite running the ball the third-most of any team in the NFL, only behind the Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears. Offenses rely on balance, and the imbalance between the running and passing games for Atlanta in 2023 cost them more than enough games to end things with now-Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. With the addition of Cousins, the hope is that the scales tip back toward the middle so that everyone in the offense can reap the benefits.
Raheem Morris - Coach of the Year
Okay, enough about the offense. Now, we flip over to the defensive side of the ball.
Head coach Raheem Morris's last task was as defensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams, and his job was simple: Ensure the defense was competent and did not overpower the offense's success.
While the numbers for the Rams are mediocre at best (19th in points allowed, 20th in EPA/play), the defense was still 11th in overall success rate and 8th in success rate on 3rd and 4th down. When the team needed the defense to step up, they were up to the task.
When you look at their roster, outside of Aaron Donald, the defense was not exceedingly talented. Third-year linebackers Ernest Jones and Michael Hoecht, along with rookies Byron Young and Kobie Turner, played at a clip nobody expected, combining for 27.5 sacks and creating havoc for the offenses they faced.
Morris got every ounce of production he could from that offense and is tasked to do the same with a slightly more talented Falcons defense. There may not be an Aaron Donald on the roster, but there are certain pieces to be excited about, like Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata on the interior, Jessie Bates and A.J. Terrell on the back end, along with an underrated linebacking corps of Kaden Elliss, Troy Andersen and Nate Landman. Morris is tasking defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake to help replicate that same production in Atlanta, and if he can, mixed with the projected offensive production from offensive coordinator Robinson, Morris’ sixth-best odds (+1300) to win Coach of the Year may be looked at a bit differently come the end of the year.
Bralen Trice - Defensive Rookie of the Year
To find Bralen Trice’s odds for Defensive Rookie of the Year, you have to scroll down to the likes of Tyler Nubin, Maason Smith, Braden Fiske, Javon Bullard, you get the idea (all +5000). All of this to say, Trice is much farther than a long shot to win the award, but there is a path.
In college, Trice was an effort pass-rusher who used his motor and strength to affect quarterbacks and ultimately became known for having the most pressures of any college edge rusher over the past three years.
Pressures are fine. How do they turn into sacks, the stat you ultimately need to dominate to win an award like Defensive Rookie of the Year?
Well, let's look at the infrastructure of the defense. The Falcons have built this defense spine-first, meaning the interior defensive linemen, linebackers, and safeties are mostly in good shape (We’re watching you, Richie). The questions for this defense come on the outside, from the cornerback and edge rushing positions. If the strength of the defense, the spine can get immediate pressure on quarterbacks, effort rushers like Trice and third-year pass-rusher Arnold Ebiketie can find more avenues to generate sacks instead of relying on consistently winning one-on-one battles.
If Trice can find a way to get those clean-up sacks and use that relentless motor to stay on the field, there is a path for Trice to win DROY. How wide is that path? Not very. There’s a reason why you can put down $10 and win $500 if it hits, but there is a path nonetheless.