Tesla's new deliveries numbers are coming. Wall Street is ready for disappointment
Tesla sold just 386,810 electric vehicles over the first three months of 2024.
Tesla sold just 386,810 electric vehicles over the first three months of 2024.
Later this week, Tesla will reveal how many electric vehicles it’s sold over the past three months. It’s almost certain that the company’s deliveries have sunk far below last year’s results — the real question is by how much.
Tesla last July said it had made more than 480,000 vehicles and delivered more than 466,000 units, most of which were the Model Y and Model 3. As of Friday, Wall Street expects 436,000 deliveries, a more than 9% decrease, according to FactSet estimates. Just a week ago, with expectations still high, about 450,000 deliveries were expected, which itself was down from earlier estimates of about 464,000.
Recent estimates, such as those from Barclay’s and UBS, have come in closer to the 415,000 to 420,000 range. Guggenheim analyst Ronal Jewsikow moved his expectations to 419,000 from 409,000 units.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan on June 25 lowered his estimate to 410,000 deliveries for the second quarter, a 23% decrease from an initial estimate of 533,000 sales, noting poor results in Europe. That would also be a 12% decline from 2023's second-quarter sales. According to an Elecktrek story on June 24, Tesla is so far more than 60,000 deliveries off from its record results in 2023 for the region.
China is still an important market for the Austin, Texas-based automaker. In May, Tesla sold 72,573 units, an almost 17% quarter-over-quarter increase, but down compared to 2023. Tesla earlier this month began delivering the updated Model 3 Performance, even as it slashes production of the aging Model Y.
Sales are tougher to pin down in the U.S., where data is more opaque and Tesla has implemented a slew of incentives — including reduced interest rates and occasional price cuts — in addition to the federal $7,500 tax credit. Besides Tesla’s older Model S,3, X, and Y vehicles, the company has sold at least 11,688 Cybertruck electric pickups since deliveries began in late November. Thanks to a prior recall notice that revealed 1,613 units were sold in December, some quick math reveals that Tesla delivers about 1,754 Cybertrucks each month.
Despite expectations being low, Tesla is most likely going to notch at least one win out of its deliveries — a better showing than last quarter, which Tesla bull and Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives called a “nightmare.” The automaker sold just 386,810 electric vehicles over the first three months of 2024, sending the stock down and raising the alarm over a possible demand issue.
In recent months, Tesla has been lowering investors’ expectations, emphasizing that its preparing for its next growth phase and cutting costs. Since April, Tesla has laid off at least 14% of its workforce and several executives have left the company. Tesla’s head of investor relations, Martin Viecha, is the latest to depart; his final day with the company coincided with Tesla’s annual meeting of shareholders, where Elon Musk’s $56 billion pay package was re-approved.
Several Tesla bulls have recently reiterated their forecasts in favor of the company, primarily based on the potential of self-driving robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robots, which Musk has said could eventually sell for between $20,000 and $30,000. Stifel Nicolaus on June 26 initiated coverage of Tesla with a $265 price target.
Tesla stock ended trading Friday at just shy of $198 per share, somewhat recovering after a rough start to the year. Shares are still down more than 20% year-to-date.
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