Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

Jun 26, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Yariel Rodriguez (29) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros (42-41) and Toronto Blue Jays (38-45) begin a 4-game series Monday. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Astros vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 2-1

The Blue Jays host the Astros on Canada Day, which is roughly the equivalent of July 4th in the States.

Despite a spirited comeback in front of a sell-out crowd, Toronto suffered a 7-6 defeat against the Boston Red Sox last season on Canada Day as the Over (9) cashed.

In 2022, the Jays topped the Tampa Bay Rays 9-2 on the Canadian holiday, again as the Over (9) connected. In 2021, the Seattle Mariners roughed up the Jays 7-2, with Toronto failing to win despite being a heavy favorite (-242) as the Under (10) hit.

The Jays didn't play on Canada Day in 2020 due to the COVID-19 global pandemic. In 2019, Toronto pounded the Kansas City Royals as a moderate favorite (-151) as the Over (9) hit, but lost 9-1 to the Detroit Tigers in 2018 on Canada Day, again as the Over (9) cashed.

Toronto is just 2-5 in the past 7 Canada Day appearances, with the Over going 4-1 in the past 5 holiday games for the Jays.

The Blue Jays lost 2 of the final 3 home games against the New York Yankees after opening the 4-game series with a 9-2 win Thursday. Toronto has won 3 of the past 5 games, and the Over is on a 7-0 run while going 10-2-1 in the past 13 outings.

Astros at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Hunter Brown vs. RHP Yariel Rodriguez

Brown (5-5, 4.37 ERA) makes his 16th start and 17th appearance. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 80 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 5-2 home victory vs. Colorado Rockies Tuesday
• 2024 road splits: 2-3, 5.87 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.70 WHIP, .313 opponents' batting average (OBA), 4 HR, 11 BB, 21 K in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance
• June splits: 4-0, 1.16 ERA (31 IP, 4 ER), 0.94 WHIP, .189 OBA, 3 HR, 8 BB, 36 K in 4 starts
• Career vs. Blue Jays: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER 3 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 7 K in 5-1 road setback June 6, 2023, in only career start vs. Jays

Rodriguez (0-2, 5.94 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.92 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 16 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 1 1/3 IP, 4 ER (5 R), 2 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 7-1 road setback vs. Cleveland Guardians June 21
• 2024 home splits: 0-0, 3.68 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 2.05 WHIP, .333 OBA, 1 HR, 5 BB, 7 K in 2 starts
• Never faced Astros before

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Astros at Blue Jays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:03 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Blue Jays +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+115) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-140)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Astros at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 7, Blue Jays 3

Moneyline

The ASTROS (-145) are worth a play as they look to spoil the Canada Day festivities in front of what will likely be a packed house in T-Dot.

The Blue Jays (+120) have struggled in recent seasons on Canada Day, winning just twice in the past 7 appearances on the national holiday. Now, Toronto must contend with a red-hot Brown, who streaks in with 4 straight victories, with his last loss coming May 22.

Run line/Against the spread

The ASTROS -1.5 (+115) aren't a bad play at plus-money if you're a little less conservative.

Houston has outscored the opposition 19-4 in Brown's past 4 starts since June 8, winning each game by at least 3 runs. So, if you like the Astros to win, you should like them to get the job done on the run line.

Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-110) is worth the look in this holiday game in the Great White North.

The total has gone high in 4 of the past 5 Canada Day appearances for the Blue Jays. They also streak in on a 7-0 run to the Over, with the total going high at a 10-2-1 clip in the previous 13 contests.

While all of the above sounds great, know that the Under is 5-1 in the past 6 meetings in this series, so there is still some risk.

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions