Favorites stage 3 Tour de France 2024 | Will the tail-enders take the lead?

Just one more day until the Tour de France truly becomes the Tour de France, but not before we tackle Monday's third full stage in Italy. IDLProCycling.com previews what promises to be another long day in the saddle for the road warriors.

Course stage 3 Tour de France 2024

There was a time when the Tour organizers seemed to favor shorter stages more and more, but the three-day stint of the Tour de France in Italy is taking a different direction. featuring three stages of over 200 kilometers each. The third stage, from Piacenza to Turin, is the longest of the three, spanning almost 231 kilometers.

Unlike the previous two days, this stage has fewer elevation changes, setting the stage for a classic Tour de France scenario: little to no enthusiasm for the breakaway, sprint teams taking control early on, and a sprint finish near the Olympic Stadium in Turin.

What’s on the menu for day three, you ask? A passage through Tortona, where Fausto Coppi died, an intermediate sprint in Alessandria, and three fourth-category climbs that are unlikely to significantly impact the race outcome of this third stage.

The finale in Turin will be much more critical, so let's take a closer look. About eight kilometers from the finish, the peloton will hit a long straight road lasting seven kilometers. Here, the sprint trains — and those of the general classification riders — will form, hoping the forecasted potential rain holds off.

This seems like a straightforward finish, but it’s not: the last kilometer includes two turns — one at 900 meters from the finish, another at 700 meters. Positioning will be crucial here because if you get caught behind and the leaders accelerate, you're out of luck.

Climbs

70.8 km: Tortone (1.1 km at 6.3%)

156.1 km: Barbaresco (1.5 km at 6.5%)

181.4 km: Sommariva Perno (3.1 km at 4.6%)

Times

Start: 11:35 AM

Finish: around 5:12 PM

Weather stage 3 Tour de France 2024

Riders might face rain on Monday, as showers are possible in the finish town of Turin in the afternoon. The wind will mostly be a tailwind in the finale, with temperatures around 28 degrees Celsius.

Favorites stage 3 Tour de France 2024

Typically, this third stage is one for the sprinters, isn't it? This brings us to last year’s green jersey winner, Jasper Philipsen. The Belgian of Alpecin-Deceuninck will want to make a mark at first opportunity and is one of the few fast men with a full lead-out train, for which he can even rely on superstar Mathieu van der Poel.

Philipsen’s main competition might come from the Netherlands, where Dylan Groenewegen is one of the top sprint contenders in this Tour de France. Groenewegen claims to be in excellent form and will want to capitalize on it quickly. He will be supported by Luka Mezgec, Elmar Reinders, Michael Matthews and Luke Durbridge.

For Lidl-Trek, Mads Pedersen is the man to watch, though he typically prefers slightly tougher conditions. With a lead-out including Ryan Gibbons and Jasper Stuyven, he could go far here, as he did in the Critérium du Dauphiné, where he held off Sam Bennett of Decathlon AG2R, who is also in this Tour.

Pedersen was by far the strongest man on day one of the Dauphiné

How about newly crowned Belgian champion Arnaud De Lie, who recently beat Philipsen at that championship? Or Wout van Aert of Visma | Lease a Bike, if he decides to sprint in this stage? And then there’s Gerben Thijssen, who sprints for Intermarché-Wanty with Biniam Girmay.

Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Fabio Jakobsen (dsm-firmenich PostNL) had a tough opening weekend, but they will be eager to score as soon as possible in this Tour de France. And there are others, like Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X), Fernando Gaviria (Movistar) and Arnaud Démare (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), who should also perform well. Kristoff has Soren Waerenskjold by his side, while the struggling Démare will rely on Luca Mozzato and Amaury Capiot.

German Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious) and Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech) could have a shot at a good performance, while Bryan Coquard of Cofidis always aims to make a mark in the Tour. Additionally, Marijn van den Berg (EF) and Sandy Dujardin (TotalEnergies) might also aim for a strong placement.

Favorites stage 3 Tour de France 2024, according to IDLProCycling.com

Top favorites: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla)

Outsiders: Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Sam Bennett (Decathlon AG2R), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny)

Long shots: Fabio Jakobsen (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X), Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Fernando Gaviria (Movistar) and Gerben Thijsen (Intermarché-Wanty)