GDP in the second quarter is estimated at 6.4%
According to the report “Stock market in April”, Yuanta Securities Vietnam gave comments on Vietnam’s macroeconomy in the second quarter as well as the stock market in April. Regarding macroeconomics, YSVN said. Although the growth rate of 4.48% of GDP in the first quarter was not as positive as expected due to the impact of the third outbreak in Vietnam, the economic indicators showed more positive signs.
The most positive point can be seen in the first quarter is the return of FDI inflows, not only reflected in the disbursement but also in the amount of newly registered capital. According to YSVN, the disbursed capital will still grow steadily in the coming time, while the newly registered capital will probably depend on the situation of vaccine deployment in the world. Although vaccine delivery in Europe is delayed, some domestic airlines have reopened international routes since April, which will be a support factor for the travel of expatriates. Vietnam.
Besides, import and export activities took place actively when the total import-export turnover in the first 3 months of the year increased by more than 24% over the same period. In addition, other factors such as demand for goods and services still increased steadily, inflation in March increased more slowly than in February, the industrial manufacturing sector regained its momentum with confidence and Optimism about the production situation in the near future.
YSVN said that the recovery will be more evident in the next quarter, especially when the second quarter’s background is quite low. Estimated GDP in the second quarter will reach about 6.4% and the whole year will reach 6.57%.
The direction of the region is 1,283 – 1,300 points
Regarding the stock market, YSVN predicted that the VN-Index could continue its mid-term uptrend and move towards the area of 1,283 – 1,300 points. In which, the banking group will continue to be the group that leads the main trend of the market. It is forecasted that the first quarter will be the highest growth period in 2021 and the room for growth in the remaining quarters depends on the individual statements of banks. The growth rate of the banking group index may reach nearly 5% compared to the level at 7/04, showing that the room for growth is no longer attractive.
Technical analysis chart of VN-Index. Source: YSVN.
Meanwhile, the risk of small and medium-cap stocks tends to increase when the momentum of medium-term price increases and cash flow in these stocks weakens.
YSVN believes that investors can continue to hold a high proportion of stocks in the portfolio and consider reducing a portion of the stock proportion when the VN-Index approaches 1,283 – 1,300 points. At the same time, investors can take a defensive strategy with stocks that pay high dividends.
Source: stockbiz.vn – Translated by fintel.vn