LORD ASHCROFT: Many of Biden's voters doubt he can do the job now - let alone in four years' time

Tied at 40 per cent each, this poll suggests a nail-biting race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But many feel the momentum is with Trump.

This time next week, the former President is expected to wrap up the Republican nomination with a primary election victory over Nikki Haley in her home state of South Carolina.

According to my poll, more voters expect him to return to the White House than Biden. There are good reasons to think they could be right.

Two thirds of Americans believe their country is on the wrong track, including half of those who voted for Biden in 2020. Some 58 per cent disapprove of his job performance, and just 37 per cent approve – worse numbers than Trump faced at the same stage of his presidency. They are also more pessimistic than optimistic about prospects for the US economy.

Asked who they think would do a better job on the issues at stake, voters prefer Trump by wide margins on immigration and the border, defence, the economy, taxes, crime and the cost of living, and by narrower ones on representing the US abroad, standing up for ordinary Americans and defending constitutional rights.

Biden is ahead only on the healthcare and the environment.

Unlike Biden, Trump is more popular than his party, and Republicans themselves feel more positive about their man than Democrats do about the incumbent President.

This gulf in enthusiasm between the two sides – the ‘intensity gap’, as political scientists call it – matters. In a close election in a divided country, persuading your people to bother getting out to vote can be the difference between victory and defeat.

This gap is not just there in the numbers. In our focus groups over the last couple weeks, Democrat-leaning voters complained about the country as readily as Republicans did, and none said Biden had exceeded their expectations – if they had any to begin with.

For all that the White House rails against special counsel Robert Hur’s description of the President as ‘an elderly man with a poor memory’ – delivered this month following an inquiry into Biden’s handling of classified files – many of Biden’s own voters seriously doubt he is in any condition to do the job now, let alone to be at it still in four years’ time.

They will talk at length about Trump’s iniquities but when you ask if they’re determined to get out and vote for Biden, they are remarkably reluctant to commit. No two elections are the same, but in this respect listening to these voters was strangely reminiscent of the weeks leading up to Trump’s victory in 2016.

Not that Trump’s backers love everything about him. They can see his flaws as clearly as anyone else. If they could find someone who could ‘do Trump without being Trump’, as they sometimes put it, they would cheerfully nominate him (or her).

But of the candidates recently on offer, they believe only Trump both promises action on the things they care about – whether on border control, energy independence, deregulation, international trade or a move away from the identity politics that they see driving the Left – and has the track record and the force of personality to give them confidence he can deliver.

‘I would rather put up with Trump’s behaviour than put up with what we have now,’ one woman told us. Much as many dislike his boorishness, the feeling that ‘he can’t be bossed’ is worth a lot of votes.

Many are also spurred by what they see as Democrat attempts to deprive them of the chance of voting for Trump, whether through the 91 indictments he faces or the attempts in Colorado and Maine to remove him from the ballot (which make even many of his opponents queasy). Nearly two-thirds of voters told us there was probably some truth to the charges against Trump – but more Americans think the indictments will help his election chances than hinder them.

If the election were held now, you would have to fancy Trump’s chances. But with nine months to go, there is more than enough time for Biden to regain the initiative.

One potentially telling factor is that, on the economy, voters are more optimistic for themselves and their families than they are for the country as a whole. Petrol prices have eased, consumer confidence is on the rise and the stock market is up.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump (pictured) are neck and neck in the race for the White House – but if they ditched Biden the Democrats would beat the former President, a new poll has found

President Joe Biden (pictured) is ahead only on the healthcare and the environment

Even if many don’t yet feel the benefits in their pocket, there is time for them to filter through well before election day, especially if interest rates fall later in the year as some analysts expect.

Moreover, the numbers suggest that while support for Trump is not exactly soft, there is plenty of potential for Biden to shore up his position.

READ MORE: Democrats ‘will win if they dump Biden’: He’s neck and neck with Trump in new poll – but his party would be 6 per cent ahead with another leader 

Trump is ahead among Hispanic voters, and all voters aged under 35. This should be food for thought to those who claim that ‘demography is destiny’ and that a younger and more diverse electorate will inevitably put the liberal Left in pole position.

Significantly, though, many say they would vote for a candidate other than Trump and Biden, or not vote, or don’t know what they would do. The same is true of African-American voters, among whom Biden leads by just 55 per cent to 22 per cent, compared to his 75-point margin in 2020.

At the same time, the key chunk of 2020 Biden voters who only somewhat disapprove of his performance in the White House still prefer him to Trump on most issues – but only half say they would vote to re-elect the Democrat. In all these groups, many will surely be persuaded to return to the Biden fold as the prospect of a Trump restoration grows ever more real.

If it feels like 2016 again, that doesn’t mean the same result is inevitable. For many voters wondering if they can bring themselves to vote for Biden again, 2016 will serve as a cautionary tale.

That is why Biden is determined to make the election all about Trump – and why Trump will need the discipline to make it about the voters.

• Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. Full details of the research are at LordAshcroftPolls.com. Follow him on X or Facebook @LordAshcroft.

Read more