With recovery widening, ICRA sees Q2 GDP at 7.7%

Asia's Tech News Daily

#Business, #Economy, #GDP, #Icra, #India

With half of the 15 high-frequency indicators recovering to the pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter, the economy finally looks nearly out of the pandemic woods, helping the Q2 GDP print at 7.7 per cent, according to a report.

However, the September print was not as good as the quarter, indicating that the recovery remains uneven, it added.

While continued base normalisation, emerging supply-side constraints and excess rainfall have dampened the year-on performance of most of the 15 high-frequency indicators in September, the economic recovery has widened in Q2 as the crisis wrought by the second wave has abated, with a larger number of sectors bettering their pre-pandemic performance, relative to Q1, Icra Rating chief economist Aditi Nayar said in a note on Thursday.

The annualised performance of 14 of the 15 high-frequency indicators, except non-food bank credit, have worsened in September compared to August.

Accordingly, Nayar projects real GDP in Q2 to have mildly trailed the level of Q2 of FY2020, at 7.7 per cent, compared to 2.21 per cent in Q1, led by the continued subdued performance of the contact-intensive sectors.

She also expects the daily average generation of the GST e-way bills in October to surpass the peaks seen in February-March 2021, indicating a better print of the growth numbers in the second half of the current fiscal.

Despite the widened recovery in Q2 with a larger number of sectors bettering their pre-pandemic performance, the revival is multi-speed, with a considerable variation in the pace of growth across sectors, Nayar said.

There is also the growing evidence of a K-shaped recovery, as is evidenced by the sharp disparity in the performance of the stock markets, robust growth in direct tax collections and improved business sentiment, juxtaposed with the continued pessimism displayed by urban households in the RBI’s latest consumer confidence survey.

The low performance in September was mainly on account of a combination of factors such as continued base normalisation (especially for motorcycles and scooters, domestic airline passenger traffic, and generation of GST e-way bills), supply-side constraints (non-availability of semi-conductors particularly for passenger vehicles) and excess rainfall.

The trend was split compared to Q1 volume performance — seven of the 14 non-financial indicators, including the quarterly output of commercial vehicles, rose above their pre-pandemic volumes in Q2, such as non-oil exports, GST e-way bills, the output of Coal India and electricity generation.

However, Q2 FY22 performance of sectors like air travel, supply of and demand for automobiles, ports cargo traffic and diesel consumption lagged the level in Q2 of FY20.

Yet, this marks an improvement relative to the situation in Q1 FY22, when only three sectors — ports cargo traffic, rail freight and non-oil exports — had reported higher volumes relative to Q1 FY20.

We also expect a base-effect led moderation in the pace of annualised growth of real GDP to 7.7 per cent in Q2 from 20.1 per cent in Q1 FY22, Nayar said.

Early data reveal mixed trends for October.

Electricity demand has risen mildly to 2.7 per cent so far in the month, from 0.8 per cent in the previous month, with demand contained by the dip in temperature levels with surplus rainfall amid concerns regarding coal availability.

The daily average generation of the GST e-way bills in October may surpass the peaks seen in February-March 2021, boosted by healthy demand during the festive season.

But, supply-side constraints would dampen output in sectors like automobiles, with the semi-conductor shortage set to suppress production in October as well, Nayar noted.

Internet Explorer Channel Network
Asia's Tech News Daily
News Related

OTHER NEWS

Starbucks Korea stops using disposable cups on Jeju Island

Starbucks stores in Jeju Island, like this one in Seogwipo, have banned disposable cups use. Starbucks Coffee Korea has banned the use of disposable cups at all 23 stores on ... Read more »

Fox's 'The Five' scores rare win for daytime; NFL takes top

The Associated PressTennessee Titans running back Adrian Peterson, second from right, celebrates with teammates quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17), offensive tackle David Quessenberry, right, and others after scoring a touchdown during ... Read more »

Gordon Ramsay's burger criticized for hellishly high price in S. Korea

Gordon Ramsay Burger recently unveiled the price of the Hell’s Kitchen Burger via a widely used map application at 33,000 won (US$28.00) before revising it to 31,000 won. The hamburger ... Read more »

From timetables to NS fares: ‘the central government must play a stronger role'

Freek Bos, director of the Rover traveler’s association, sees it again. Train passengers who complain about more expensive tickets, MPs who ask questions about this, and the minister or state ... Read more »

Systemic problems led to economic collapse of USSR, say experts

According to associate professor of the Department of History at the Moscow State University Andrei Shadrin, the Soviet economy no longer met the demands of the society and the state, including the military Read more »

Russia increasing gas supplies to Europe as partners request, says envoy

According to Yevgeny Stanislavov, Gazprom has increased supplies to Europe by 10% this year, whereas the total increase in supplies of the Russian gas to the continent equals 15% Read more »

Pro cyclist Mark Cavendish reveals violent home invasion robbery months after Tour de France stage wins

Mark Cavendish of The United Kingdom at start during the 108th Tour de France 2021, Stage 18 a 129,7km stage from Pau to Luz Ardiden 1715m, on July 15, 2021 ... Read more »

Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Stitch Fix, Roku, Norwegian Cruise Line and more

Source: Stitch Fix Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading. Stitch Fix — Shares of the digital personal shopping company plummeted 23% after reporting disappointing guidance for the fiscal second ... Read more »

Just Eat Takeaway leads rare risers at Amsterdam stock exchange

Meal deliverer Just Eat Takeaway, owner of Thuisbezorgd.nl, was one of the rare risers in the Amsterdam AEX on Wednesday. The Amsterdam main index went down after the sharp price ... Read more »

IT-BPM industry to add 3.75 lakh jobs in FY22: Report

Representative Image With increased investments in the sector and rapid adoption of technology by enterprises in the country, the IT BPM industry is on a positive hiring trajectory and is ... Read more »

Men's and women's pro tours hire bankers to help serve up ONE Tennis merger

The ATP and WTA have brought in Rothschild and Allen & Co respectively to help thrash out a CVC Capital Partners-backed merger of their commercial activities, Sky News learns. Read more »

Mumbai airport says working with testing labs to explore lowering rapid RT-PCR test charges

Representative image (Image: Reuters) Adani group-owned Mumbai airport on Wednesday said it is working with testing labs and other partners to explore the possibility of further lowering the charges for ... Read more »

Twitter tests new TikTok-like interface for Explore tab

Twitter is experimenting with a new Tiktok-like vertical scrolling feed in its content discovery tab ‘Explore’ with select users in multiple markets including India. In this test, users are able ... Read more »

Statistics Netherlands sees the number of workers at risk of poverty falling again

Below low-income threshold Just over 900 thousand people lived in households below the low-income threshold in 2020, 376 thousand of whom had been living for at least four years in ... Read more »

Judge cancels million loan from Lottery founder

This is apparent from a ruling that the District Court of Noord-Holland made on Wednesday in a case that the Tax Authorities had brought against Roet and the British letterbox ... Read more »

Ever Given makes a trip through the Suez Canal again

Photo: ANP The Ever Given will return to Europe for the first time since the beginning of this year. Last time, the huge container ship got stuck sideways in the ... Read more »

Total Covid vaccine doses administered in India crosses 130 crore, says health ministry

(Representational Image.) The cumulative COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in India crossed 130 crore on Wednesday, the Union Health Ministry said. Over 72 lakh vaccine doses were administered on Wednesday till ... Read more »

We are curious about India and are figuring out our country strategy: IKEA's country expansion manager, Per Hornell

Per Hornell, expansion manager, IKEA India, says the attempt is to stay affordable to customers. IKEA has always been known for large, sprawling stores sized 300,000 to 400,000 sq ft. ... Read more »

Starbucks workers in Buffalo to decide this week whether to form coffee chain's first U.S. union

People walk past a Starbucks in Buffalo, New York, December 7, 2021.Lindsay DeDario | Reuters Starbucks workers at three cafes in Buffalo, New York, voted this week on whether to ... Read more »

Indiabulls Housing Finance's Rs 1,000-crore public issue of bonds opens Thursday

Representative image Indiabulls Housing Finance said its public issue of bonds will open on Thursday to raise up to Rs 1,000 crore, the proceeds of which will be utilised to ... Read more »

After Hiccups and Hookups, OTT Lionsgate Play to launch 10 originals, expects high growth in India

Lionsgate Play, the streaming service from Lionsgate India and Starz which recently released its first Indian original series called Hiccups and Hookups, has a lot more lined up for the Indian viewers. Expecting ... Read more »

Instagram CEO urges industry body on best practices for kids online

Instagram head Adam Mosseri will call on Wednesday for an industry body to determine best practices to help keep young people safe online. Mosseri, who heads Instagram which is part ... Read more »

Airline stocks are up, and even with a bumpy Covid profit path, carriers may finally be good investments

Delta Airlines Boeing 737 taking off from LAX in Los Angeles, California. FG | Bauer-Griffin | GC Images Is it possible that airlines are OK after all? Stocks of leading ... Read more »

Why is there no Samadhaan for delayed payment to MSMEs

Representative Image (Source: ShutterStock) Just as the pandemic was about to wreak havoc, businessman Raman Mehta who runs Diamonds Ceilings, a ceiling tiles manufacturing unit in Manesar, filed a complaint ... Read more »

Output gap may take many years to close, says RBI

Representational image Admitting that credit growth is “very low” given the size and growth rate of the economy, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday said for both the numbers to match, ... Read more »

Russia will continue uninterrupted gas supplies to Greece, ready to increase them — Putin

The President stressed that Russia had always faithfully and fully delivered on its contractual obligations to both Greek and other European partners and consumers Read more »

Billionaire in the dust over mass layoff via Zoom

The American billionaire writes this in a statement on the website of his company. Garg previously fell on Zoom right with the door in the house, stating, “I don’t have ... Read more »

Sports betting and the rise of DraftKings

Sports betting in the U.S. is booming. For the 2021 NFL season, an estimated 45 million Americans are expected to wager a total of at least $12 billion. Since a 2018 ... Read more »

JPMorgan says 2022 to see full global economic recovery

Image: Shutterstock US investment bank JP Morgan predicted on Wednesday that 2022 will mark the end of the coronavirus pandemic and see a full global economic recovery. The bank’s outlook report for ... Read more »

Angola uses the Lobito corridor as a vehicle for investment and growth

Angola is looking to revolutionise the landscape of Southern Africa. Using private investment, it wants to transform the port of Lobito into the gateway of this region. It is also ... Read more »

Pinner sees complaint about malfunctioning ATM go up in smoke

According to the man, the ATM indicated that his bank balance was insufficient to be able to withdraw the €500. He went to the Kifid complaints institute to get the ... Read more »

Satellite imagery company Planet begins trading on the NYSE after closing SPAC merger

An image from one of the company's satellites shows Lower Manhattan in New York City.Planet Satellite imagery and data specialist Planet began trading Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange, ... Read more »

Indian military chief among 13 killed in helicopter crash

India‘s air force says an army helicopter carrying the country’s military chief Bipin Rawat has crashed in southern Tamil Nadu state. AP The head of India’s armed forces, General Bipin ... Read more »

Wall Street is holding back despite positive vaccine news

The stock exchanges in New York started the trading day with small fluctuations on Wednesday, after the solid price gains a day earlier. The news from the pharmaceutical companies Pfizer ... Read more »

RMZ Corp targets entry in US, Europe markets; plans to develop offices in London, Paris and New York

Hybrid work model, which involves a mixture of work-from-home and work in offices, has gained momentum in the developed world (Representational image) Real estate major RMZ Corp is targeting an ... Read more »

Elgar Parishad Case: Accused Sudha Bharadwaj set to be released from jail; NIA court imposes tough bail terms

Source: ANI A special NIA court on Wednesday held that jailed lawyer-activist Sudha Bharadwaj, who has been granted default bail by the Bombay High Court in the Elgar Parishad-Maoist links ... Read more »

Stitch Fix shares are down more than 27%, analyst says apparel retailer has hit a 'growth wall'

The Stitch Fix logo on a smartphone arranged in Hastings-on-Hudson, New York, U.S., on Saturday, June 5, 2021. Stitch Fix Inc. is scheduled to release earning on June 7.Tiffany Hagler-Geard ... Read more »

Blok: no support for starters for the time being

Starting entrepreneurs cannot claim the allowance for fixed costs (TVL), because this scheme looks at lost turnover compared to a period in which their company did not yet exist. A ... Read more »

Pound falls and leisure sector hopes punctured on Plan B reports

The prime minister was urged not to throw nightclubs and bars 'under a bus' by imposing the new restrictions. Read more »

Banks: control of financing related to deforestation is in order

Photo: ANP Banks have been pursuing a policy for years to combat deforestation, address customers if necessary and also take action. That is what major banks ING, ABN AMRO and ... Read more »
On free-english-test.com you will find lots of free English exam practice materials to help you improve your English skills: grammar, listening, reading, writing, ielts, toeic