With Paul Skenes to make first MLB start, how have No. 1 picks fared in their debuts?

Stephen Strasburg.

On Wednesday, the Pittsburgh Pirates called up the top pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, starting pitcher Paul Skenes, who will make his first major league start Saturday against the Chicago Cubs.

The imposing 6-foot-6, 235-pound right-hander enters the league with plenty of expectations, as have other pitchers before him. However, among the seven pitchers selected first overall since 2004, some recognizable names have shined in their MLB debuts, while others fell into obscurity before they had a chance to make an impact.

Best of the Bunch: Stephen Strasburg (2010), Gerrit Cole (2013)

A Cy Young Award winner and former World Series MVP, Strasburgh recently announced his retirement from baseball. However, he was once the most exciting prospect in the sport, going No. 1 overall to the Washington Nationals in 2009 before dazzling in his MLB debut a year later. In June 2010, Strasburg became an overnight sensation, dominating the Pirates in his first career start, striking out 14 in seven innings to earn the win in a 5-2 Nationals victory.

Meanwhile, Cole, who the Pirates selected first in the 2011 MLB Draft, made his MLB debut in June 2013 against the San Francisco Giants, where he gave fans a preview of what he’d become. Now a standout for the New York Yankees and the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, he was solid in his first career start, allowing two earned runs off seven hits with two strikeouts over 6.1 innings, earning the win in an 8-2 Pittsburgh victory.

Good, but not great: David Price (2008), Casey Mize (2020)

A five-time All-Star, Cy Young Award winner and World Series champion, Price had an incredible 14-year MLB career. However, Price had a solid yet unspectacular debut before achieving those accolades. In September 2008, a year after going No. 1 to the Tampa Bay Rays, he held the New York Yankees to only two earned runs off three hits, striking out four in 5.1 innings to earn a no-decision in an 8-4 Rays loss.

A few years later, Mize, the top pick of the Detroit Tigers in 2018, had a similar debut to Price’s against the Chicago White Sox in 2010. The right-hander lasted only 4.1 innings but struck out seven while allowing three earned runs off seven hits, earning a no-decision in a 5-3 loss.

Nightmare scenarios: Luke Hochevar (2007), Mark Appel (2022), Brady Aiken (Never)

Picked first by the Kansas City Royals in 2006, Hochevar made three appearances in the majors before making his first start in September 2007, taking the loss (4-2) to the then-Cleveland Indians after giving up two earned runs off three hits in only three innings of work. After going 38-59 with a 5.44 ERA in 128 career games as a starter, Hochevar ultimately proved more valuable as a reliever, going 8-6 (152 games) with a 2.95 ERA and provided a spark out of the bullpen as part of Kansas City’s 2015 World Series championship team.

Meanwhile, Appel and Aiken remain a cautionary tale after being selected first by the Houston Astros in back-to-back years (2013 and 2014). Appel never debuted for Houston, and following a trade and being designated for assignment, he eventually made it to the big leagues with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022, making six appearances as a reliever. Likewise, Aiken never appeared in an Astros uniform, or any other MLB uniform for that matter. A contract dispute with Houston resulted in Aiken going unsigned out of the 2013 draft. He re-entered the following year, selected No. 17 by Cleveland, but after three uneventful minor league seasons, he was out of baseball by 2019.

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