Who will replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes? The five contenders ranked

Lewis Hamilton is leaving Mercedes for Ferrari in 2025 (Photo: Getty)

It’s been over two months since Sir Lewis Hamilton sensationally announced that he would be leaving Mercedes to join Ferrari in 2025.

Yet the identity of the driver who will replace the seven-time Formula 1 champion remains a mystery, with one of the most lucrative seats in the sport up for grabs.

However, during the Australian Grand Prix, Toto Wolff name-checked four drivers the Mercedes boss could hire, with a fifth also confirmed to be on his radar ahead of last weekend’s race in Japan.

Each driver on the shortlist is amazingly talented but completely different in terms of age, experience and success, so who is actually the most likely to end up at the Silver Arrows? Metro Sport takes a look:

Max Verstappen

Chances of moving to Mercedes: 5/10

Wolff has openly admitted that if available, Max Verstappen would be the first and only choice to replace Hamilton: ‘I would love to have him. There is no team up and down the grid who wouldn’t do handstands to have him in their car.’

The question is, why would Max Verstappen leave Red Bull, the team with which he’s won the last three championships (and most likely this year’s as well)?

Well, the Christian Horner scandal has reportedly triggered a civil war within Red Bull, with Verstappen and his father Jos on the side opposing team principal Horner who was accused of inappropriate behaviour by a female employee of the team.

Max Verstappen could leave Red Bull over the Christian Horner scandal (Photo: Getty)

Jos has suggested his son could leave in the wake of the scandal, and Verstappen supposedly has a break clause in his contract that will be triggered if key ally and team advisor Helmut Marko (another one opposing Horner) departs.

At the moment, it seems unlikely the Dutchman would choose to leave Red Bull given just how fast they are, but if he did, Mercedes are his only realistic prospect unless Aston Martin make an outlandish move for the 26-year-old.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Chances of moving to Mercedes: 8/10

It is clear that Mercedes’ plan was to bring in Andrea Kimi Antonelli when Hamilton’s initial contract ran out at the end of 2025 – but the British sporting legend has ruined that.

Why not just sign Antonelli now? Well, he’s only 17 and has never driven an F1 car.

The teenager is very highly-rated, tipped to follow in the footsteps of Hamilton and Verstappen but Wolff has stated he cannot rush the Italian’s development.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli is tipped to be F1’s next megastar (Photo: Getty)

Antonelli is currently racing in Formula 2 where he’s made a solid start to the season, and if he performs well it might just be worth fast-tracking the youngster into the big leagues. After all, it worked for Hamilton and Verstappen.

Yet, they may decide he needs a another year or two before making that lead, which means a short-term signing is needed. That brings us nicely to…

Fernando Alonso

Chances of moving to Mercedes: 8/10

On the other end of the age scale, Fernando Alonso will celebrate his 43rd birthday this summer. He’s reportedly held talks with Mercedes over the seat, so is it one last hurrah for the Spaniard?

His credentials speak for themselves: Two titles, 32 wins and by far the most experienced driver in the sport’s history with 384 grand prix under his belt and counting.

Fernando Alonso is coming to the end of his F1 career (Photo: Getty)

Alonso would be a great short-term option and very attainable with his Aston Martin contract up at the end of the season, though he also dropped a hint that 2024 could be his last before retirement.

Furthermore, he does have a reputation for creating combustible atmospheres wherever he goes, and he may not be the most popular man at Brackley after causing prospective new teammate George Russell to crash in Australia.

Carlos Sainz

Chances of moving to Mercedes: 7/10

If Sainz wasn’t on the shortlist prior to the season’s start, he certainly is now, after claiming an impressive victory in Australia just two weeks after having his appendix removed.

Carlos Sainz is without a seat for 2025 after getting dropped by Ferrari (Photo: Getty)

He’s finished on the podium in all three of the races he’s taken part in this campaign – all the more notable given that he doesn’t have a seat for next year as Ferrari are dropping him for Hamilton.

A straight swap to Mercedes beckons then? Possibly, the Spaniard’s form makes him a very desirable option for any team with Red Bull, Aston Martin and Audi linked with his services.

Sainz has options, it just depends on what one he thinks is best, and at the moment an underperforming Mercedes won’t be his first choice.

Sebastian Vettel

Chances of moving to Mercedes: 6/10

Sebastian Vettel retired from F1 in 2022 but has hinted at a comeback (Photo: Getty)

Much like with Verstappen, Sebastian Vettel joining Mercedes will happen but only on one (pretty big) condition – he has to come out of retirement.

The four-time world champion has suggested multiple times this could happen and recently revealed he had been in contact with Wolff.

Furthermore, Hamilton himself said he would ‘love’ Vettel to come back and believes his soon to be former team would be perfect for the German.

But as successful as he was, Vettel’s time in F1 didn’t end on a high. Is the 36-year-old still good enough to race at the front of the grid?

For more stories like this, check our sport page.

Follow Metro Sport for the latest news on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.