What could Cody Bellinger's market look like on a short-term deal?

Chicago Cubs first baseman Cody Bellinger (24)

As the top free agents continue to linger on the market, an increasing number of fans have begun to inquire — on social media, in the comments at MLBTR, in questions to the MLBTR Podcast and our regular chats here at MLBTR — about the possibility of any of the top four pivoting to a short-term deal. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently outlined the potential pitfalls in that scenario for lefty Blake Snell, whose stock isn’t likely ever to be higher than it is right now coming off his second career Cy Young win at 31. Jordan Montgomery, likewise, probably won’t have a better platform than this past year’s postseason heroics. Like Snell, he’d be 32 next winter, which won’t do his earning potential any favors. Matt Chapman is also heading into his age-31 season.

If there’s one of the “big four” who might be best suited to go with a short-term deal, it’s the youngest of the bunch: Cody Bellinger. At 28 years of age (29 in July), a return trip to free agency for Bellinger would come when he’d still be positioned as one of the youngest names on the market. A short-term deal for Bellinger would also allow him to hit free agency next winter without a qualifying offer — he rejected one from the Cubs in November, and players can only receive one QO in their career — and it could provide him the opportunity to “prove” that his 2023 output wasn’t a fluke.

After a pair of injury-ruined 2021-22 seasons, Bellinger was non-tendered by the Cubs. He’d undergone shoulder surgery following the 2020 season, and agent Scott Boras had unsurprisingly contended that Bellinger was never fully healthy during that pair of dreary seasons in 2021-22 when he slashed a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. The Cubs bet $17.5M on Bellinger bouncing back to something closer to his prior Rookie of the Year and NL MVP form and were rewarded with a huge .306/.356/.525 slash with 26 homers and 20 steals.

It was an outstanding resurgence but not one without its red flags. Bellinger’s 15.6% strikeout rate was a career-low, but his 7.2% walk rate was the second-lowest of his career. More concerning to interested teams was Bellinger’s batted-ball profile. Despite his success at the plate, Bellinger ranked in the 27th percentile or lower among MLB hitters regarding average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. At his peak, Bellinger was a hard-contact juggernaut who ranked among the league leaders in virtually every Statcast category of note. The opposite was true in 2023, and some teams likely wonder whether he can continue to produce at such lofty levels in the absence of premium (or even league-average) quality of contact.

It puts Bellinger in a precarious situation. He surely feels he’s back to his MVP form, but players coming off such a dominant performance rarely have to take a one-year “prove-it” deal. Bellinger and Boras surely feel he’s already “proven it” and that the 2021-22 can now be framed as injury-marred outliers. Teams are clearly wary of regression, if not all the way to the miserable 2021-22 output, then to something decidedly less than his 2023 output.

It’s not an identical situation to the one faced by Carlos Correa in free agency two winters ago, but there are some parallels. Both were atypically young free agents and were regarded as strong defenders at premium positions. Both had won Rookie of the Year and a league MVP early in their careers. Neither was at his offensive peak upon reaching free agency. Correa didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason with the Boras Corporation representing him, but he changed agencies and hired Boras midway through the offseason.

Correa’s eventual contract — a three-year, $105.3M deal with the Twins — shocked baseball, both due to the landing spot and to the fact that top-ranked free agents rarely settle for such a short-term arrangement. A pair of opt-outs was baked into the contract, allowing him two more bites at the free-agent apple.

A similar structure, logically speaking, could provide Bellinger some protection against another injury or regression while still rewarding his massive rebound season with a top-tier annual value. There are some merits and risks for both parties, even if it’s not the deal he envisioned upon bouncing back to such lofty heights with the Cubs.

The problem Bellinger might run into, however, is finding the 2024 equivalent of the 2022 Twins. Minnesota was a clear postseason hopeful aiming to win now but also had plenty of payroll room at that late offseason stage. The Twins were also nowhere near the luxury tax threshold. It looked like an ideal short-term partnership (though it’s obviously since turned into at least a seven-year match).

For Bellinger, the landscape looks different. There are only five Major League teams whose projected payroll is more than $20M south of their 2023 payroll levels. Two — the White Sox and Rockies — aren’t aiming to contend and aren’t likely to put down a lucrative short-term offer for Bellinger. A third, the Padres, is only facing such a gap between current and 2023 spending because they’ve been working to cut payroll by as much as $50M. Signing Bellinger isn’t in the cards, barring a major last-minute philosophical shift. That’s particularly true considering that the Padres are $22M shy of the luxury threshold; signing Bellinger would put them right back into the tax penalty when it’s clearly been a goal to reset that level.

The luxury tax is a key issue here, too. Signing Bellinger short-term will likely require a high annual value and multiple opt-outs. For a team already in luxury territory, that means a potentially exorbitant overall price. As such, it’s best to break the 30 teams into a few different categories when looking for Bellinger landing spots on a short-term deal. Let’s run through them…

Current Luxury Taxpayers

Phillies: Over the past week, plenty’s been speculation about the Phillies jumping at one of the top four free agents on a short-term deal. That’s primarily due to the president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski,’s comment that he can’t promise that no further additions are coming because an unexpected opportunity can always present itself. But the Phils are third-time payers with a projected $261M of luxury obligations, putting them firmly into the second tier. Even a conservative estimate of a $25M AAV on a short-term deal would mean paying a 62% tax on the contract’s first $16M and a 95% tax on the final $9M. In other words, it’d cost the Phillies around $18.5M in taxes on top of Bellinger’s salary. Assuming an evenly distributed $25M, that’s $43M in just 2024 to sign Bellinger. And, again, on a short-term deal, the AAV will likely be much higher. Correa’s AAV was $35.1M.

Astros: Houston’s $254M of projected luxury obligations is a near-perfect match with Philadelphia. Unlike the Phillies, the Astros are only first-time offenders right now. They’d owe a 20% tax on the first $2M of Bellinger’s deal, a 32% tax on the next $20M and a 62.5% tax thereafter. Bellinger would push them into the third tier of penalization, meaning their top pick in the 2024 draft would be pushed back 10 spots. The Astros already have a record-high payroll. Signing Bellinger for even a $25M AAV would cost around $8.675M in taxes on top of his salary, require the forfeiture of their second-highest draft pick (under the QO) and knock their top pick back by 10 spots. Ouch.

Rangers: If Texas were going to push further into luxury territory than their current projection of $243M (just $6M over the first threshold), it’d surely be to sign a pitcher — likely Montgomery. The outfield is already largely set with Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis Garcia, with top prospect Wyatt Langford blitzing toward the majors. GM Chris Young has all but said he’s done signing Major League free agents. This match isn’t happening.

Blue Jays: The Jays are about $11M over the first luxury barrier. They’re a second-time payor. That’d mean a 30% tax on the first $9M or so of Bellinger’s deal, plus a 42.5% tax on the next $20M and a 72.5% tax on anything thereafter (in addition to the same draft losses outlined for the Astros). GM Ross Atkins has said any notable addition would likely require subtracting elsewhere on the roster. The Jays could fit Bellinger into the mix by giving George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more time at designated hitter, but Atkins’ comments make this hard to see. For illustrative purposes, a $25M AAV on a Bellinger deal would cost the Jays $9.5M in taxes, while jumping into the Correa range would mean about $15.5M in taxes (on top of his 2024 salary).

Braves: Atlanta is rolling with a Jarred Kelenic–Michael Harris II-Ronald Acuña Jr. outfield, with Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna at designated hitter. They don’t fit even from a roster vantage point, and they’re already $33M over the tax line. It’s interesting to note that between the contracts they ate and the associated taxes, they spent about $26M to take on Kelenic, which isn’t all that far off from what Bellinger might end up costing — but that was much earlier in the offseason.

Yankees, Mets, Dodgers: The Yankees don’t have room in their outfield, and the Dodgers/Bellinger relationship might not be the healthiest at the moment. Regardless, all three clubs are third-time payers already into the top luxury tier, meaning any additional dollars spent come with a 110% tax. Signing Bellinger to a $25M AAV deal would mean $27.5M in taxes. Bump that to $30M AAV and you’re at $33M in taxes. A $35M AAV matching Correa comes with $38.5M in taxes. All of that is on top of any salary for Bellinger.

Relatively Close to the Luxury Tax

Cubs: The incumbents! It’s not the spiciest take to suggest it, but this still seems logical. The Cubs obviously wouldn’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign Bellinger, since they’re the ones who made him the QO (although they would give up the right to receive a compensation pick). He’d “block” Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field or Michael Busch at first base, but perhaps only for a year. And, with injuries, PCA and Busch would likely still get their opportunities. The Cubs are $29M shy of the luxury tax threshold and have $195M in actual payroll commitments. Bellinger would push them well past the $203M franchise-record mark and perhaps just over the first luxury tier, but should that matter? This is the cleanest and best fit; a short-term arrangement should only add to the appeal.

Red Sox: Like so many of the teams on this list, if the Sox were to make one more big splash, it’d probably be on pitching (likely Montgomery). Boston is $39M from the tax line and is $177M in actual payroll commitments. They have the financial wherewithal to do this, but they also have an outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela — with DH Masataka Yoshidaalso in the fold. This doesn’t feel viable.

Angels: The Angels’ focus should be on pitching, but owner Arte Moreno has historically balked at long-term deals for starting pitchers. The Halos have Taylor Ward and Mike Trout in the outfield, but Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell aren’t the most exciting options for the remaining spot. Moniak hit well in 2023 but did so with a .397 BABIP and 35% strikeout rate that both scream for regression. Adell was once a top prospect but is out of options and hasn’t established himself. Moreno said this week the team would likely operate on a lesser budget in 2024, but we’ve seen repeatedly that he’s drawn to star hitters, and Bellinger, on a short-term deal, would fit that mold. With $188M in tax obligations, the Angels could sign Bellinger and avoid reaching the threshold.

D-backs: Arizona is already at a new record payroll ($142M) and is surprisingly within striking distance of the $237M tax line ($189M). Bellinger wouldn’t put them over, but signing him would require a level of aggression we’ve not seen from the Snakes since they shocked the world with their Zack Greinke signing nearly a decade ago. The Diamondbacks don’t need outfielders, necessarily, but center fielder Alek Thomas hasn’t proven himself at the plate. On a short-term deal, could GM Mike Hazen feel opportunistic?

Padres: The entire baseball world has learned never to say never concerning San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, but in an offseason where the Padres have been trying to cut payroll by as much as $50M and have pronounced questions at the back of the rotation, this feels like a bridge too far. If the Friars were to trade Ha-Seong Kim, pick up an arm in that deal and then reallocate some of the savings to Bellinger, you could almost squint and see it. Typing this feels crazy, but that’s often how I feel when writing about Padres’ moves that actually did happen as well. The Padres are currently $25M shy of the tax line. Signing Bellinger likely puts them over for a third straight year, meaning a 30% tax on a portion of his deal.

Giants: San Francisco already signed a center fielder to a nine-figure deal. They now have an all-lefty outfield and substantial questions in the rotation. It does feel like the Giants have the capacity for one more big move — they’re $33M from their franchise-record payroll and $24M from the luxury tax threshold — but if they make that move, it’ll probably be on a pitcher. Still, they could sign Bellinger short-term and only cross into tax territory by $5-8M. And since they didn’t cross the CBT threshold in ’23, they’d only be hit with a 20% tax.

Nowhere Near the Luxury Tax

Royals: Let’s get weird! I don’t think anyone expects the Royals to sign Bellinger … but no one expected the Twins to sign Correa. They also didn’t expect the Royals to sign Bobby Witt Jr. to a $288.78M extension, or to spend a (so far) combined $109.5M on seven big league deals in free agency this winter. But here we are! This would be a shocking fit — more shocking than the Twins signing Correa — but look at the Kansas City outfield candidates: MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, Hunter Renfroe, Dairon Blanco. Bellinger is an immediate upgrade over every member of that group. The Royals currently project for a $115M payroll and $161M of luxury obligations. They’re around $28M shy of their franchise-record payroll, which came back in 2017 and under a different owner.

Twins: Like the Mariners, the Twins have been working to reduce payroll. Their current projection of $123.5M is right around the bottom end of their reported $125-140M target range for payroll. Minnesota has been open to adding a right-handed-hitting outfielder and further rotation depth. They did this with Correa, so let’s not rule them out entirely. But if they were to, say, trade Kyle Farmer to free up $6.3M and then make one more notable addition, a pitcher like Montgomery seems much more plausible than another lefty-swinging outfielder.

Orioles: If the Orioles make another big splash after Corbin Burnes, it seems likely to be on a pitcher. Their outfield is set with Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander and top prospects like Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad on the MLB doorstep.

Cardinals, Brewers: The Cardinals already have more outfielders than they know what to do with, and Bellinger isn’t going to displace Paul Goldschmidt at first base. Milwaukee has a similar situation in the outfield, and they’ve got Rhys Hoskins at first base.

Tigers: President of baseball operations Scott Harris suggested this week he’s not inclined to sign another “everyday-type” hitter, instead preferring to give legitimate looks to the team’s young hitters. With Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter and veteran Mark Canha in the outfield/DH mix, plus Spencer Torkelson at first base, there isn’t a great roster fit here.

Pirates, Marlins, Reds, Guardians, Rays: Five of the lowest-payroll clubs in the game. It seems safe to say no one from this group will seriously pursue Bellinger, even on a short-term deal.

Nationals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox: All four teams are in some form of rebuild/reset. The A’s certainly aren’t going to spend this type of money. Nats GM Mike Rizzo suggested he’s done adding MLB free agents. The Rockies balked at Bellinger’s one-year price last winter and are in a worse spot now. Maybe you could call the White Sox an off-the-wall dark horse, but would GM Chris Getz forfeit a draft pick to sign Bellinger short-term, knowing he’d either opt-out next winter or perform poorly enough to be an unwanted contract in 2025? Doubtful.

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The ideal fit for Bellinger on a short-term deal is a team that’s not already a taxpayer or is only minimally over the line. The Cubs have been considered a presumptive favorite due to Bellinger’s strong year there in 2023, but as outlined above, they also make sense from a roster and financial standpoint. Other plausible long-shot options when considering the tax and payroll ramifications include the Angels and Giants. The Padres could add Bellinger without paying substantial taxes, but it’d counter the team’s cost-cutting efforts this winter. Long-shot fits with the D-backs, and particularly, the Royals sound a bit more sensible than one might imagine at first blush.

We certainly don’t know that Bellinger will wind up going short-term, but he’s the most sensible candidate to do so of the remaining marquee Boras clients, and if he goes that route, it could open the door for some unexpected suitors.

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