Why Astros' pitching problems could lead to a collapse

Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander.

Although the Houston Astros are coming off back-to-back victories against the Texas Rangers, they haven’t solved their biggest problem.

“Maybe the Astros, like the Rangers, can piece together their [pitching] rotation as the season evolves,” wrote The Athletic’s Chandler Rome. “But imagine where they would be without Ronel Blanco, who has emerged as one of the game’s biggest early surprises. And imagine how all this might crumble further if additional injuries occur and the younger starters do not improve.”

Starting pitchers Justin Verlander (shoulder), Framber Valdez (elbow) and Jose Urquidy (forearm) are on the 15-day injured list, per ESPN.

Aside from Blanco — who has a 0.86 ERA in three games — the rest of the rotation has yet to step up. The Astros are second to last in baseball in ERA (5.32).

The Astros could’ve signed pitchers Jordan Montgomery (Arizona Diamondbacks) or Michael Lorenzen (Texas Rangers) this offseason, but they passed.

Per Spotrac, Houston is above the 2024 luxury-tax threshold ($237M), which could’ve contributed to this decision.

The Astros — who have made seven consecutive ALCS appearances — could still turn things around. They’re third in baseball in batting average (.277) and fifth in on-base percentage (.348).

As of Monday, FanDuel gives them the fourth-best World Series odds (+900) behind the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and L.A. Dodgers. But it’s hard to bet on a team with colossal pitching issues, even if it’s been one of the best in baseball for nearly a decade.

“Their excitement over beating the Rangers the past two days could diminish rapidly in the next three days, when they face the Atlanta Braves,” wrote The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. “All of the innings their starting pitchers threw in recent postseasons, all of the transition the organization underwent this offseason, might finally cause this mini-dynasty to collapse under its weight.”

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