Wells Fargo Championship 2024 picks: Our PGA pro has hit 3 weeks in a row. Here's how he's betting Quail Hollow
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Can we get four in a row? If we do, these 10 details will definitely make a difference.
1. Course conditions have changed at the Quail Hollow Club. Reading through the weekly GCSAA report (course maintenance report), the tournament committee attached a summary of the course changes. Twelve greens have been “softened” (Nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 11, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18). By softened they mean the slopes, because every player in the media center has mentioned how firm these new surfaces are while they grow in.
2. If you cannot hold green surfaces, then short game becomes a supremely important skill. The best in this field for strokes gained/short game are Denny McCarthy, Wyndham Clark and Mackenzie Hughes.
For our other bets and our selections for the worst value options for the 2024 Zurich Classic, make sure you watch our weekly “Odds Drop” video:
3. Strokes gained/short game is a composite statistic that combines around-the-green acumen and putting. The last 10 winners at Quail Hollow have gained an average of six strokes on the field with their flatstick! Pick a putter this week. Wyndham Clark, Peter Malnati and Sahith Theegala are the best in Charlotte on the greens.
4. Included in the renovation report, Quail Hollow added 23 yards to the 16th hole. The scorecard now shows a 529-yard par 4. The average par-4 length at Quail Hollow is 456 yards, and nine of the 11 par-4 tests measure over 450 yards. The last 10 winners at Quail Hollow gained an average of 10 shots on the field with their par-4 play.
5. Quail Hollow was already a long course before they added another 20-plus yards. The average driving distance by the field is 301 yards. That’s 17 more than the weekly PGA Tour average. Which bombers give you the best bet for a top 10 or 20? Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland lead that list, but don’t be surprised to see Chris Kirk’s name next on the strokes gained/off the tee countdown. He won the Sentry at Kapalua, which is a good comp course for Quail Hollow.
Quail Hollow Club
Private Quail Hollow Club Charlotte, NC 4.2 103 Panelists
Few golf course projects had more national attention in recent years than Quail Hollow, mainly because its front nine was redesigned just a year before it hosted the 2017 PGA Championship, won by Justin Thomas. The par-4 first and par-3 second holes were completely torn up, replaced by a new long dogleg-right par-4 opening hole. Several acres of pines to the left of the fifth tee were removed to make room for a new par-3 fourth. (With its knobby green fronted by three traps, it proved to be the most frustrating hole for pros in the 2017 PGA.) More pines were removed to the left of the par-4 11th, replaced by bunkers, and even more trees chopped down on a hill left of the par-4 18th to make room for money-making hospitality boxes. There’s no question that this latest remodeling, rushed though it was, improved the course. The course was also rerouted for the 2022 Presidents Cup. Explore our full review
6. Firm conditions will be somewhat softened. The forecast calls for a little rain on Thursday and Friday afternoon. Pay attention to those tee time waves…
7. If you are building your betting card under a rock, you might have missed the news that Scottie Scheffler is not in the field. One other noteworthy WD was Ludvig Åberg, who pulled out on Monday with knee soreness. Will both play next week? Only time, rest, and the maternity ward at a Dallas hospital knows.
8. The Wells Fargo Championship is a perfect preview for the PGA Championship. Quail Hollow is a par-71 layout covering 7,558 yards. Next week’s test possesses an eerily similar scorecard (par 71, 7,609). Fifty-three percent of the approach shots at Quail Hollow are launched from 175 yards or more. One-third of iron shots in are from over 200 yards! Keep an eye on long iron play this week. It will be valuable research for Valhalla.
9. Seven of the past 10 winners at Quail Hollow held pre-tournament odds above 40-1. This is a breakthrough event. Just ask Rory, Rickie, Max—and Wyndham who was 80-1 last year.
10. All eyes in golf are not on Charlotte this week. Nelly Korda is playing in the Cognizant Founders Cup in New Jersey. Korda has captivated our attention by winning five tournaments in a row. Against a field of 144 players, she is going for win number six at Upper Montclair Country Club. If her play is anything like that dress she wore at the Met Gala this week I’d bank on six in a row.
Our weekly betting coverage comes to you all week. Published this morning are the Golf Digest Expert Panel’s picks for the Wells Fargo Championship. You can analyze our betting board predictions before you make your own weekend wagers.
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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.