Wegen Investment Bank: CS läuft auf Milliardenverlust zu

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Mehr als zwei Milliarden «Sondereffekte» im vierten Quartal aufgrund von «Altlasten». Die CS versucht mal wieder einen Schlussstrich.

Und noch einmal 500 Millionen. So könnte in etwa das Fazit zu einer Gewinnwarnung der Grossbank Credit Suisse von heute Morgen lauten. Kurz vor Bekanntgabe des Jahresergebnisses hat die Grossbank – wohl schon im Geiste des künftigen Präsidenten Axel Lehmann – beschlossen, noch weitere Altlasten in das eh schon verhagelte Jahresergebnis 2021 zu packen.

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Vermutlich schliesst das vierte Quartal nun mit einem Verlust in der Grössenordnung von 1,6 Milliarden Franken ab. Aufs ganze Jahr gerechnet deutet das auf einen Reinverlust in Milliardenhöhe hin.

Die Credit Suisse erklärt die 500 Millionen Franken «Sondereffekt» mit «Rückstellungen für bedeutende Rechtsstreitigkeiten». Auf Nachfrage hin ist zu erfahren, dass es sich dabei um unterschiedlichste Fälle handle, die teilweise lange zurücklägen und der Investment Bank zugeschrieben werden müssen. Mit den Skandalen der jüngeren Zeit haben sie offenbar wenig zu tun.

Ergebnisse

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Solche Altlasten hat die CS bereits im vergangenen November bereinigt. Zusammen mit dem Ergebnis zum dritten Quartal 2021 gab die Bank damals bekannt, im vierten Quartal eine Wertberichtigung über rund 1,6 Milliarden Franken vornehmen zu wollen. Dabei handle es sich um Goodwill, der unter anderem seit dem Kauf der damaligen Investment Bank Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette im Jahr 2000 in der Bilanz stand. Jetzt, zwanzig Jahre danach, kommt die CS offenbar zum Schluss, dass die damals übernommenen immateriellen Werte materiell nichts mehr abwerfen.  

Zusammen ziehen die zwei Korrekturen das Ergebnis um mehr als zwei Milliarden Franken ins Minus. Ohne die 1,6 Milliarden rechne man mit einer Nullrunde im vierten Quartal, schreibt die Bank in ihrer Mitteilung von heute. Netto dürfte also ein Minus von 1,6 Milliarden zu erwarten sein, was – zusammen mit den bisherigen Quartalsgewinnen – zu einem Jahresminus von mehr als einer Milliarde Franken führen dürfte.

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Zudem: Auf eine bereinigte Null kommt die CS nur, weil sie gleichzeitig Gewinne aus Immobilienverkäufen im dreistelligen Millionenbereich verbuchen kann. Schnell mal ging daher am Dienstagmorgen das Wort vom Notverkauf um. 

Wegen Investment Bank: CS läuft auf Milliardenverlust zu
© Bereitgestellt von Handelszeitung Keystone/Bloomberg/Montage HZ /

Verglichen mit der UBS steht die CS entsprechend schlecht da, wie die «Handelszeitung» erst vor kurzem auch in einem ausführlichen Vergleich dargelegt hat. In den drei vorangegangenen Jahren erwirtschaftete die UBS Reingewinne von zusammen knapp 15 Milliarden Franken, während die CS in der gleichen Zeit auf gut acht Milliarden kam. Und für 2021 rechnen die Analysten bei der UBS derzeit mit einem Reingewinn von gegen 7 Milliarden Franken.

Vor allem im Investment Banking, einst Stolz und Kernkompetenz der Credit Suisse, ist der Vergleich derzeit besonders schief. Während die wieder etwas mutigere UBS das Geschäft ausbaut und respektable Gewinne schreibt, ist das Ergebnis der CS durchzogen. Zwar ist sie – über alle Segmente hinweg – noch immer die grössere Investment Bank als die UBS. Doch das Geschäft ist volatil und von Patzern geprägt.

Aktien

Für das 2021er-Ergebnis ist vor allem die Geschichte um den Fonds Archegos prägend. Mehr als 5,5 Milliarden Franken musste die CS aufgrund des Ausstiegs verbuchen – das meiste davon im ersten Halbjahr. Zuvor musste die CS schon ihre Geschäfte mit dem Fonds von Lex Greensill einfrieren und darauf hohe Rückstellungen bilden. 

Zu denken gibt zudem, dass die CS auch im Vermögensverwaltungsgeschäft warnt. Die Transaktionsbasierten Erträge seien rückläufig, schreibt sie in der Medienmitteilung zum vierten Quartal. Und das, obwohl die Börse zuletzt im 2021 noch gut lief. Auch sei es in der Vermögensverwaltung mit privaten Personen zu einem Abfluss gekommen, der offenbar nur durch Zuflüsse im Asset Management mit Firmenkunden ausgeglichen werden konnte. Für die erklärte Strategie, vermehrt auf das Vermögensverwaltungsgeschäft fokussieren zu wollen, bedeutet das wenig Gutes. Zumal die CS in diesem Bereich mit ihrer Rivalin von der Bahnhofstrasse noch lange nicht mithalten kann. Die UBS ist nicht nur viel grösser, sondern auf deutlich rentabler.

Wohl, um die Anleger trotzdem noch etwas zu beruhigen, teilt die Bank mit, die Quote des harten Kernkapitals werde das «angepeilte Ziel» von 14 Prozent per Jahresende erreichen, und die Leverage Ratio liege bei mehr als sechs Prozent. An der Börse waren die Reaktionen heute Dienstag leicht negativ, nachdem die Aktie der CS bereits gestern deutlich abgeschmiert war. So richtig scheinen die Anleger noch nicht an den berühmten Turnaround zu glauben. Zuletzt wurde die CS auch hier von der UBS mehr als abgehängt.

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