In Haryana dangal, five issues that could lead to BJP’s stumble
On April 9, Jannayak Janta Party’s (JJP) state chief quit, and more are expected to follow, putting a question mark on the future of the party, still in its infancy. Tremors continue in April less than a month after minor party in Haryana government, JJP, was shown the door by BJP and CM Manohar Lal Khattar was replaced by party leadership. Near 70, Khattar makes his debut as an LS contestant from Karnal.
The BJP veteran and RSS pracharak held the assembly segment Karnal in 2014 and 2019. But his stock slipped soon after he formed the government with JJP’s help. He and his ministers weren’t allowed by protesters to even enter villages during the farmers’ movement. The major governmentw reshuffle may have been to beat anti-incumbency, but it’s also being seen as admission by BJP high command that it was unhappy with Khattar’s governance.
Yet the party seems to believe there’ll be little adverse impact, since Khattar is still playing Super CM. He has retained all his private staff in CM’s office – from his personal secretary to retired bureaucrat RK Khullar, who is chief principal secretary to newbie Nayab Singh Saini, who in turn hasn’t been able to appoint a single bureaucrat or staff of his choice.
The main contest remains between Congress and BJP, which won all 10 seats in 2019, but faces a tough fight on most seats ahead of the May 25 poll. Five issues parties will wrestle with:
Jobs | There’s anger over the Agniveer scheme, the short-term military services recruitment and release after four years of service without pension and ex-servicemen status. Army has long been the biggest employer of Haryanvi young men, for whom it’s tradition to join the armed forces. High rate of unemployment and shrinking of landholdings in the agrarian state have worsened job conditions.
Pension | The second biggest issue likely to impact election outcomes is the demand for Old Pension Scheme (OPS). Neighbouring states of Punjab and Himachal, held by Aadm Aadmi Party (AAP_ and Congress respectively, have announced implementation of OPS. Around 3.25 lakh employees serve in Haryana at present; there are around 4L pensioners. Per employees’ unions, whose demand is for OPS, employees and families influence over 25L votes in the state.
Quota | There’s resentment among Jats over their demand for quota in govt jobs and admissions to educational institutions. Courts stayed the Jat quota Congress govt had carved out earlier, but the belief is that BJP-led govt made little effort to free the quota from the stay. Around 30 Jats were killed in police firing during the bloodshed in Feb 2016, during the Khattar-led BJP govt’s first term. Comparisons are being drawn to Shinde’s quota to Marathas.
Polarisation | Perception that the saffron party has created divisions with its narrative of Jat vs non-Jat is persistent. BJP made all appointments to state positions considering the caste factor, which tilted a certain caste profile in its favour. The hurriedly made appointment of Saini is also being seen as BJP’s bid to woo backward class votes.
Candidates, candidates | Despite close to a decade in office, state BJP still suffers a paucity of potential winners. Six of 10 BJP candidates in Haryana are imports from other parties – three recently switched parties, and three had joined BJP in 2014. Naveen Jindal and Ranjit Singh Chautala were given tickets within minutes of joining BJP, from Kurukshetra and Hisar, respectively. Their main hope lies in Modi’s appeal.
Congress in play | Internal rift and factionalism within Congress’s mid-level isn’t expected to impact their campaigning given it has strong candidates in Kumari Selja and Deepender Hooda, who’re expected to restrain BJP from repeating its 2019 win. Hisar BJP MP Brijendra Singh’s switch to Congress is a boost to its chances. Even JJP and INLD voters may opt for Congress given Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s appeal in rural Haryana.
Congress has been talking up alleged graft during the Khattar-Chautala coalition government, including recruitment scams in state public service and staff selection commissions. It’s looking confident, and its INDIA ally AAP, contesting on Kurukshetra LS seat, has fielded Sushil Gupta, who’ll be facing former Kurukshetra MP Jindal. People got to know of Gupta and his ‘Haryana connection’, only after Kejriwal sent him to Rajya Sabha.
Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), once the state’s main opposition party, is unlikely to have any impact whatsoever in LS polls – party patriarch, former CM OP Chautala, is aging. And younger son and Ellenabad MLA Abhay Singh Chautala will need more time to step into his father’s shoes.
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