Vietcombank’s share price was less tied up

At the end of this week, the VN-Index rose to even 990 points. However, the step up from the peak of 970 to 990 is not necessarily favorable, in terms of the support of the majority of large stocks.

On the contrary, like in the VN30 basket, a basket of 30 influential stocks on HOSE, many stocks stood on the sidelines, even dropped at this peak. VCB also thought outside.

But, in the last two sessions of the week, VCB’s share price broke out, becoming the main driving force for the VN-Index. This stock price is only a few prices away from the peak a year, but perhaps the point that is more concerned is whether it opens up a peaceful movement direction or not?

The above question is related to the characteristics of VCB for many years, often associated with constraints, whether or not these constraints affect the price or not is another matter.

CLEAR HISTORY

In June 2008, Vietcombank was completed equitization and started operating under the model of joint stock commercial banks. Exactly a year later, shares of VCB were listed on HOSE. Since then, stock price movements have been noticed many times not in terms of investment.

Those were capital sales to foreign investors, through private placement to increase charter capital.

Although equitized, the State still holds dominant ownership; Vietcombank still belongs to the central business sector. Capital sale mechanism must comply with strict regulations. Typically, in recent issuance sessions, the selling price must not be lower than the average closing price of the number of sessions on the floor …

That mechanism used to be the main constraint. Outstanding in the 2016 deal, selling capital to Singapore’s GIC fund.

At that time, Vietcombank and the consultant Credit Suisse spent a year, answering more than 500 questions sent by investors to be able to deploy the capital sale plan. Finally, on August 29, 2016, the memorandum of understanding to sell 7.73% shares to GIC was signed.

But, the above deal cannot be completed later. By binding of mechanism and reality.

At that time, the asking price of both sides was expected to be discussed by the market at about 39,000 VND / share. Also on the floor, at that peak, the price was recorded to over 57,000 VND. Although the high and low must be determined at the time of the official sale, such a large gap shapes concerns that state assets could be sold cheaply.

Then, more than two years later, the GIC investment in Vietcombank was officially realized. Price close on the floor, 55,800 VND / share. However, GIC did not buy all as expected with the rate of 7.7% of the previous charter capital, but only 2.55%.

Vietcombank’s share price was less tied up

The signing ceremony of a memorandum of understanding to sell shares between Vietcombank and GIC on August 29, 2016

THE POSITION IS DIFFERENT

In the above deal, at that time, Vietcombank was not in a favorable position in negotiation.

First, like other state-owned commercial banks, the state budget does not invest more to increase capital. It was also the time when the tense and protracted story emerged about this banking block needing a share dividend payment mechanism to increase capital. But the whole 5 years later cannot do it.

Second, the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) Vietcombank at that period was precarious, even at times of sub-standard fluctuations. The pressure to raise capital has made the need to sell. When it is necessary to sell capital, the negotiated position may be limited.

As above, in the promotion deal since 2016, Vietcombank has not sold out 10% of its planned capital. The plan continues to move to 2019, 2020 … However, so far the next step has not been concretized.

There is a reason, this bank is difficult to sell capital because the price of shares on the floor continuously increased. Vietcombank’s leaders shared on the sidelines that such price increase is an obstacle. At that time, the price of VCB used to record 8x to 9x, even suggesting the first direction since the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on the stock exchange where bank shares have consolidated to around 1xx (except Techcombank TCB when it was listed on the floor with 128,000 VND, then quickly split after that).

Connecting to this year, the price of VCB maintained at a high level, popular over 8x and now over 9x. This may become a “barrier” if Vietcombank continues to sell capital, with the aforementioned mechanism binding.

However, Vietcombank’s situation and position are now different.

The Government has officially revised the regulations, which open the direction of the budget to be invested in state-owned commercial banks (indirectly through the possibility of sharing dividends in shares). Not only Vietcombank, but also VietinBank and BIDV are facing this opportunity.

These members all have large-scale retained earnings, accumulated over the years. Now that the mechanism is open, they do not need to sell capital to foreign investors to increase their charter capital as the previous situation. The position also changes if capital is sold.

With Vietcombank, talking to the press recently, a senior leader also suggested that, after the government has removed it, the bank plans to pay dividends, including part of cash but part of the payment. stocks from retained earnings over the years.

In that direction, the charter capital and related safety indicators are expected to be actively and self-relieved without having to find and sell to foreign investors. And related, the price of VCB stock on the floor is no longer a reference constraint on mechanism, when it is not necessary to sell capital.

Or in another direction, if foreign investors really need, in a position to buy, they will need to follow the movement of stock prices on the floor.

Source: bizlive.vn – Translated by fintel.vn

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