US to slow down oil output after 2030, OPEC share to grow to 40% — forecast

OPEC expects that a favorable price environment will force US oil producers to restore production, which has been frozen due to the pandemic

MOSCOW, September 28. /TASS/. The United States will begin to actively restore oil production starting from 2022 until reaching production peak by 2030. Other countries outside of OPEC will begin to reduce oil production after 2030, which will lead to an increase in the share of OPEC countries in global production, according to the long-term forecast of OPEC World Oil Outlook published on Tuesday.

OPEC expects that a favorable price environment will force US oil producers to restore production, which has been frozen due to the pandemic. US output will grow from 11.5 mln bpd in 2020 to 14.8 mln bpd in 2026, OPEC believes. The US can reach the peak production of 15.2 mln bpd by the end of the 2020s. At the same time, the total production of liquid hydrocarbons may increase to 20.5 mln bpd by this time.

Other non-OPEC countries will also reach peak production of 71 mln bpd by 2030, OPEC wrote. By 2045, this figure will drop to 65.5 mln bpd. On the other hand, OPEC production will increase from 35.7 mln bpd in 2030 to 42.7 mln bpd in 2045. The share of OPEC in the global oil market will increase from 33% to 39% by 2045.

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