'Muslim Math' and Mamata: Here's Why TMC Boss is MIA from INDIA Bloc Rallies, Meetings

West Bengal CM and TMC chief Mamata Banerjee at a public meeting at Raipur in Bankura district, on April 8. (Image: PTI)

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the “Muslim math” is likely keeping West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee away from all the major meetings of the opposition INDIA bloc – she even skipped the crucial ‘Loktantra Bachao Rally’ held in solidarity against her Delhi counterpart Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest. Instead, she sent Rajya Sabha MP and senior TMC leader Derek O’Brien to represent her and the party.

The Muslim vote share, which accounts for at least 28 per cent of West Bengal’s total population, is low-hanging fruit for the three major parties in Bengal – TMC, Congress and CPM. With the BJP’s increasing political influence in the state, these three parties are eyeing the significant Muslim voter base. Hence, the electoral mathematics around the Muslim vote share and seat-sharing arrangements could be the reason behind Mamata’s absence from opposition meetings.

While she did send O’Brien for the Delhi rally, senior leaders in the structure were not spotted there. Her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, also gave the rally a miss. This is particularly significant as the rally at Ramlila Maidan was attended by all senior opposition leaders, including senior Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi as well as heads of the other regional parties.

The TMC, however, justified the absence of Mamata and Abhishek by saying the party was represented by a veteran leader. But, a close look at the party’s electoral math, Bengal’s demography and the Congress-CPM role in the state paint a different picture.

With the political influence of the Congress and CPM shrinking in the state, Mamata is now trying to get hold of a majority of the minority vote share. A public association with the Congress and Left could have forced her to leave some Muslim-dominated seats to them. According to experts, a claim of full stake on the Muslim vote bank seems to be a crucial reason that keeps Mamata and Abhishek away from the major national meetings of the INDIA bloc.

Over 30% Muslims in at least 15 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats

Out of a total of 42 Lok Sabha constituencies, Bengal has around 14 to 15 seats with more than 30 per cent Muslim population. These are called the Muslim-dominated seats, of which in around eight to nine seats, the community has over 25 per cent population. This means they could play the deciding factor in these areas.

Since absolute consolidation of the Hindu vote has not yet happened in the state, the TMC’s political calculation always moves around the chunk of Muslim votes through block voting, and a considerable percentage of Hindu votes that includes all castes. Traditionally, the ruling parties of Bengal – both the Left and TMC – have continued to secure a well-consolidated Muslim vote. Any split in this may put the ruling TMC in trouble.

An analysis of past results during Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha polls in the state show how the Congress had always been a dominating political force in Muslim majority districts and constituencies, which include Murshidabad, Malda and parts of Birbhum districts. Similarly, in some districts where Muslims and tribals were high in vote share percentage, Left parties had a firm control.

But, with Mamata claiming their turf and consolidating the Muslim vote in favour of the TMC, the Congress and CPM have become a depleting force. Leaving any seat to the Congress and sharing a stage with the Left at national meetings could send out a signal to the Muslims that voting for either will make the alliance stronger.

But, Mamata does not want her vote bank to split. She wants an absolute consolidation of Muslim votes and an additional 10 to 12 per cent “anti-BJP” votes, which appear to be a perfect combination for her to rule the roost. A public handshake with the Congress may confuse her voter base and jeopardise her electoral prospects.