If Marcos serves the US, Mindanao will want out

If Marcos serves the US, Mindanao will want out

WHEN he was president, and even before, Rodrigo Duterte said things that were not to be taken seriously. During his 2016 election campaign, he boasted that he would ride a jet ski to challenge China in disputed waters. He also threatened to fatten Manila Bay fish with dead drug lords to stop illegal drugs in six months.

Millions of voters probably believed him, but smart ones knew those were glib sound bites for the media and ballot box.

So when Duterte recently called for Mindanao’s secession, top leaders and major media should have taken the advice of Chief Presidential Legal Counsel Juan Ponce Enrile, with his centenarian mind (he’ll turn 100 on Valentine’s Day), regarding Duterte’s claim that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. used narcotics: “I would have ignored.”

But media will be media, and so will politicians. Hence, instead of being ignored like the former president’s warning about “missiles raining on us” due to nine military bases opening to the United States in February 2023, his Mindanao secession threat was headlined here and abroad.

Guess what that did to investor confidence, combined with the spat between the Marcos and Duterte camps. Even worse: security officials declared that government forces would be deployed against separatists. Who wants to invest or travel where civil war could erupt?

Enrile could just have quipped: “Former president Duterte need not always be taken seriously.” Or as noted, the media could again have snubbed the tough-talking Davaoeño as they did when he actually cited the very real threat of Chinese projectiles hitting our country if we let America use our bases.

That warning should have been widely covered. Instead, Duterte’s secession remarks were bannered. Nice one, Uncle Sam.

Why Mindanao could secede

Having said all that, one can see why Mindanao may think of breaking away, and those potentially divisive issues now deserve attention.

Foremost is the longstanding gripe over so-called imperial Manila disregarding the interests, needs and aspirations of other regions — precisely why the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao was created.

Allocation of national resources is another issue. Mindanao contributes about 15 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) or annual economic production. But in this year’s national budget, it receives just over 11 percent of region-specific allocations.

Then there is the near-universal practice of enterprises making billions in Mindanao paying taxes in Metro Manila, where they are headquartered. Thus, the capital region rakes in most of the local governments’ share of taxes collected.

Nor are Mindanaoans happy about losing Chinese funding for the first railway to be built on the island because, of course, Beijing won’t allocate billions of dollars in loans to a nation set to let a nuclear-armed rival use its bases in a Taiwan war.

Which brings up foreign relations, another divisive concern. When the Israel-Hamas war erupted, President Marcos, House Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez and National Security Adviser Eduardo Año were quick to take Israel’s side.

Not so Filipino Muslims (nor Malaysians and Indonesians), and even less so now with many tens of thousands of Palestinians killed, injured or missing amid Israel’s assaults on Gaza, by the United Nations’ count.

Even more potentially contentious is the Marcos administration’s decision to let the US use nine bases of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

It’s bad enough for Filipino Muslims that Washington backs Israel. But with America weaponizing the Philippines for a possible war with China, Mindanaoans supportive of the Duterte administration’s neutral foreign policy and heeding his warning about EDCA bases may want out of a country facing a war not of its making that could go nuclear.

For now, Mindanao may not feel as threatened as Luzon, which has five EDCA sites and maybe six with Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro eyeing Batanes — less than 400 kilometers from Taiwan and ideal for missile batteries targeting a strategic chokepoint between the South and East China Seas.

Last year, US Embassy officials talked with Batanes officials about port upgrading. No prizes for guessing why.

Now, Beijing has warned us about boosting forces on Batanes.

But Mindanao may yet get anxious about EDCA bases if Uncle Sam adds more on the island besides Lumbia Air Base outside Cagayan de Oro. America’s Agile Combat Employment strategy is “to have jets spread out over many, many islands [so as] to make the targeting problem for the adversary more difficult — it makes them use more munitions,” explained US Air Force Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander of America’s Pacific air assets, after Washington got access to AFP bases.

President Marcos once said the bases were only for Philippine defense, not Taiwan conflicts, even stressing this policy during his state visit to the US last May. But Washington ignored him, excluding his clear stand from guidelines for our alliance.

Moreover, Marcos himself may be leaning toward Taiwan. He personally congratulated its newly elected leader — unprecedented among national leaders with Beijing ties. And as Teodoro affirmed, forces could be deployed on Batanes, which the US would also be keen on.

Now, does Mindanao want to be part of America’s military platform against China?

What if …

Secession would, of course, violate the Constitution and our territorial integrity. However, if Charter change proceeds, provisions like the national territory could be revised. But that sounds impossible.

Still, if it happens, could Mindanao flourish on its own? Tiny Timor-Leste has done so after Indonesia ended 24 years of rule in 1999, with just 1.2 million people, even fewer than Davao City.

Muslim nations would provide aid and know-how to independent Mindanao; so would China and Russia. And its enviable resources and cropland, $360-billion GDP and 26-million-strong market — larger than many nations — would attract business.

And guess what: as Taiwan war risk escalates, where would Filipinos feel safer — Mindanao or Luzon, weaponized with five, six or more bases open to nuclear-capable US warplanes, warships and submarines?

Bottom line: If we want to keep our nation together, we must consult all regions on life-and-death issues like letting our bases be used for Washington’s wars.

That’s democracy.