UK politics – live: Tory MP says he expects to lose election as No 10 refuses to blame China for MoD ‘hack’

LIVE – Updated at 17:09

A Conservative MP has publicly admitted he personally expects the Tories to lose the next general election, when asked about Rishi Sunak’s claim that Britain is on course for a hung parliament.

Tory MP Paul Scully told the BBC that it could be possible to see a hung parliament or “reduce the losses” if the Conservatives come up with a vision and “actually sell that vision to the country, rather than just going from crisis to crisis”.

He added: “My personal view is that Labour’s going to win the election, but there is that scenario – if you’ve got the vision.”

It came as reports revealed that the Ministry of Defence was targeted in a cyberattack on a third party payroll system including the details of tens of thousands of British armed forces and veterans.

Senior Tory Tobias Ellwood said the targeting of a payroll system “points to China” and could be part of “strategy to see who might be coerced”. China said it “firmly opposes and fights all forms of cyberattacks”.

Downing Street refused to accuse a specific state or actor for the cyberattack.

Key Points

• Tory MP says he expects Conservative Party to lose general election
• Rachel Reeves accuses Rishi Sunak of ‘gaslighting’ voters about economy
• Ministry of Defence hit by ‘Chinese’ cyberattack
• Government ‘swiftly’ took targeted database offline, minister insists
• Beijing claims it ‘firmly opposes and fights all forms of cyberattacks’
• Targeting payroll system ‘points to China’, claims senior Tory

Cyberattack was work of ‘malign actor,’ Shapps says

17:09 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Grant Shapps said the hacking of the Ministry of Defence “was the suspected work of a malign actor” but added “we cannot rule out state involvement”.

The defence secretary said the cyberattack shows the UK is facing “rising and evolving threats” adding: “The world is becoming somewhat more dangerous.”

Shapps apologises to armed forces personnel

17:06 , Kate Devlin

Defense secretary Grant Shapps apologised to the armed forces personnel affected by the Ministry of Defence cyberattack.

Speaking in the Commons on Tuesday afternoon, he said: “I want to apologise for the men and women affected – it should not happen.”

He added that the plan to fix the system means it will not happen again.

However, the defense secretary threw the contractor, who was also working for the MoD< under the bus, saying “evidence of potential failings by them that may have made it easier” to be hacked.

Mr Shapps also read out a helpline number in the Commons.

(PA Wire)

16:41 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

The Government has been pressed over the use of British troops to distribute aid in Gaza once a maritime supply route had been established.

Tory former Cabinet minister Lord Clarke of Nottingham said: “We are very near to the prospect of aid being delivered by sea once the Americans have finished the construction of a quay that they are undertaking.

“Has the Government made any progress in reassuring us about the orderly distribution and safe distribution of aid by that route when the quay is ready?

“And what is the Government’s present position on direct British involvement including the use of British troops if necessary to try to work to get proper distribution of that aid to the people we hope will be able to receive it?

Responding, foreign minister Lord Ahmad said: “On the issue of safe distribution within Gaza that is a key component of this.”

He stressed the need to ensure the safety of aid workers who had “the expertise”.

Lord Ahmad added: “We are looking at all of the dynamics on the best way to support a British operation in support of this international effort.”

Holyrood votes for SNP leader John Swinney to be Scotland’s next first minister

16:19 , Andy Gregory

Members of the Scottish Parliament have voted for new SNP leader John Swinney to be Scotland’s next first minister, succeeding Humza Yousaf who formally resigned from the post earlier on Tuesday.

Mr Swinney won the backing of 64 MSPs, with his nearest rival Scottish Conservatives leader Douglas Ross picking up 31.

It comes just eight days after predecessor Humza Yousaf announced he was stepping down, after his decision to terminate the powersharing agreement the SNP had with the Scottish Greens at Holyrood left him facing a vote of no confidence in his leadership.

John Swinney won the backing of 64 MSPs (EPA)

Britain ‘implores’ Israel to reopen border crossings into Gaza

16:14 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Britain is “imploring” Israel to reopen border crossings into Gaza, including Rafah, to ensure humanitarian aid can get though, a foreign minister has told Parliament.

Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon also echoed concerns over the threat of a military offensive on the southern city, where around half the population are children.

The Tory frontbencher said: “We are imploring Israel to ensure that the crossings that were shut are opened immediately, including in Rafah.”

He revealed the Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron had spoken to the president of Israel on Monday morning.

Lord Ahmad said: “We do believe this is an escalation which needs to be immediately resolved. Because there are now 600,000 children in Rafah, almost 50% of Rafah is children. We need to ensure their safety and security and at the moment we have not been reassured at all in terms of any detail of plans as to where these people would move.”

He added the suggested place of evacuation was “pretty barren land”.

16:10 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

Live: Grant Shapps updates MPs after Ministry of Defence data breach

Humza Yousaf hits out at racist bigots in final speech as first minister

16:03 , Andy Gregory

An emotional Humza Yousaf said his heart would “forever belong to Scotland” as he told how leading his country had given him the opportunity to defy “racist bigots”.

Speaking from Holyrood’s front bench for the final time, he told MSPs about the racial abuse he had suffered since a young age.

“Young Humza Yousaf could never have imagined he would be able to lead this country,” the outgoing first minister said. “I was six years old when I was first told to go home, and I am afraid since then it has been a regular occurrence – in fact, almost daily if you look at my social media feeds.”

He said that “racial slur” had hurt him most “simply because I have no other home than this one, I never will, I never have”.

Mr Yousaf continued: “My heart will forever belong to Scotland. So to have the opportunity to defy the far right, to defy the racist bigots who told me to go home, to be in a position to serve my home, to contribute to public life in my home, and to have the opportunity to lead my home – that has been the most tremendous honour that I didn’t think was reserved for people who looked like me.”

Lammy suggests Labour believes arms exports to Israel should be suspended if Rafah attack continues

16:03 , Maryam Zakir-Hussain

David Lammy has appeared to suggest that Labour now believes arms exports to Israel should be suspended if an attack on Rafah goes ahead.

During exchanges in the Commons, he said: “The French government said the forced displacement of any civilian population is a war crime. Does the minister agree?

“Hamas is a terrorist organisation, its cowardly tactics are reprehensible but that does not stop Israel’s obligation to follow the rules of war or the government’s obligation on arms exports.

“Can the minister say why he thinks than attack on Rafah does not present a clear risk of a serious breach of international humanitarian law?

“Can he confirm whether he has received any assessment that the threshold has already been met.”

Conservative MP says he expects Tories to lose general election

15:48 , Andy Gregory

A Conservative MP has said he believes Labour will win the next general election.

Tory MP Paul Scully told the BBC: “There is a scenario that you can get to – if we come up with a vision, if we actually sell that vision to the country, rather than just going from crisis to crisis and trying to manage those crises – that you can get towards a hung parliament or reduce the losses.

“My personal view is that Labour’s going to win the election, but there is that scenario – if you’ve got the vision.”

Humza Yousaf thanks colleagues in final speech as Scotland’s first minister

15:25 , Andy Gregory

Humza Yousaf gave his final speech as Scotland’s first minister to MSPs on Tuesday afternoon after officially resigning earlier in the day.

He said: “Let me offer thanks to every single colleague across the political divide for the kindnesses that you have shown me over the years.

“We often, and I’m guilty of this too, lament the toxic nature of our political debate and it’s true, there is entrenched tribalism that feels difficult to free ourselves from.

“However I will remember far more fondly the kindness and generosity of colleagues over the years.”

Humza Yousaf has officially resigned as first minister (Jane Barlow/PA)

Minister calls for probe into Welsh leader Vaughan Gething over deleted Whatsapp messages

15:11 , David Maddox, Political Editor

Welsh Secretary David TC Davies has called for an investigation into Labour Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething after allegations he deleted Whatsapp messages to other ministers during the Covid period.

Sadiq Khan says he wants London to be best city in the world for people to grow up in

14:55 , Andy Gregory

Sadiq Khan has begun his third term as London mayor on Tuesday with a pledge to make the capital the best city in the world to grow up in.

Speaking at a declaration of office ceremony held in the Tate Modern, Mr Khan told the PA news agency. “It was a hard election because Londoners know the last eight years have been tough, we have been rowing against the tide of a Conservative government.

“I want London to be a byword for opportunity, the best place in the world for people to grow up in, and that means supporting young people.”

Mr Khan said he wants to make free school meals permanent in London’s state primary schools, fund more youth clubs and mental health support, as well as invest in high-quality mentoring.

Labour’s economic plans explained as Rachel Reeves accuses government of ‘gaslighting’

14:41 , Andy Gregory

Labour’s Rachel Reeves has accused the government of “gaslighting” the country on the economy and says her party will focus on boosting growth if it acheives power at the next election.

Last year, the shadow chancellor outlined her vision of ‘securonomics’, where the UK is protected against overseas pressures such as Brexit, the war in Ukraine, and Covid. This approach also sees the government embracing the private sector to promote economic growth.

This is a departure from Labour’s approach under Jeremy Corbyn, which ran on an economic policy platform of progressive, radical tax reforms in two general elections. Ms Reeves is instead focusing on relatively small-scale changes to begin with.

My colleague Albert Toth has more on Labour’s economic policy here:

Labour’s economic plans explained as Reeves accuses government of ‘gaslighting’

China has ‘fundamentally different values to ours’, says Sunak

14:25 , Andy Gregory

China has “fundamentally different values to ours”, Rishi Sunak has said, amid reports Beijing was behind a cyber attack on a database containing details of armed forces personnel.

On a visit to Crystal Palace Football Club’s academy on Tuesday afternoon, Mr Sunak told broadcasters that the government had set out “a very robust policy towards China”.

Mr Sunak said: “They are a country with fundamentally different values to ours, they’re acting in a way that is more authoritarian at home, assertive abroad.”

He added: “Recently, I announced a historic increase in our defence spending to two-and-a-half percent of GDP. And I made the point that we are facing an axis of authoritarian states, including Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, which pose a risk to our values, our interests, and indeed our country.”

Rachel Reeves introduced by former Tory MP at City of London speech

14:16 , Andy Gregory

Rachel Reeves was introduced ahead of her speech on the economy today by former Tory MP Nick Boles, who said the Labour shadow chancellor understood “the central paradox of economic management”.

He said the paradox was that “it is by demonstrating discipline, responsibility and the sense of the importance of restraint that you earn the right, earn the trust, to be able to make transformative change”.

Mr Boles added: “The business community trusts that [Ms Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer] understand that stability in economic policy will unleash investment, that the ambition that Labour has will be delivered by demonstrating to markets, to investors, but also to individuals, to taxpayers, to consumers, that they are not going to play fast and loose with their money.”

Mr Boles quit the Conservative Party in 2019 over Brexit, and was revealed in February this year to be an informal adviser to Labour’s shadow cabinet on how to prepare for power.

Labour will fight election on economy, says Rachel Reeves

14:03 , Andy Gregory

Labour will fight the next election on the economy, the shadow chancellor has said – as she dismissed suggestions the UK was heading for a hung parliament.

In a speech in the City of London, Rachel Reeves said her party would use every day to “expose what the Conservatives have done to our country” and accused the Government of “gaslighting” the public by claiming Britain had “turned a corner”.

She said: “Instead of believing the prime minister’s claims that we’ve turned a corner, the questions people will ask ahead of the next election are simple.

“Do you and your family feel better off than you did after 14 years of Conservative government? Do our schools, our hospitals, our police, our transport work better than they did 14 years ago? Frankly, does anything in our country work better than it did when the Conservatives came into office 14 years ago?”

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves accused the Conservatives of gaslighting the public over the state of the economy in a speech in the City of London (Labour Party handout)

Rail strikes: Simon Calder explains latest string of walkouts

13:47 , Andy Gregory

Train drivers are once again striking in their long-running dispute with the government. Our travel correspondent Simon Calder has the details:

Full report: Shapps to update MPs on hack targeting defence payroll details

13:29 , Andy Gregory

Defence secretary Grant Shapps will update MPs on a cyber attack on a database containing details of armed forces personnel amid reports China was behind the hack.

David Hughes has more in this report:

Shapps to update MPs on hack targeting defence payroll details

Chinese embassy hits out at ‘false information’ on Ministry of Defence cyberattack

13:14 , Andy Gregory

A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the UK said: “The so-called cyberattacks by China against the UK are completely fabricated and malicious slanders.

“We strongly oppose such accusations. China has always firmly fought all forms of cyberattacks according to law.

“China does not encourage, support or condone cyberattacks. At the same time, we oppose the politicisation of cybersecurity issues and the baseless denigration of other countries without factual evidence.

“China has always upheld the principle of non-interference in each other’s internal affairs. China has neither the interest nor the need to meddle in the internal affairs of the UK. We urge the relevant parties in the UK to stop spreading false information, stop fabricating so-called China threat narratives, and stop their anti-China political farce.”

Government reviewing third-party contractor’s operations after cyberattack

12:57 , Andy Gregory

The government is reviewing the operations of a third-party contractor whose systems were hacked in a cyber attack on the Ministry of Defence, Downing Street has said.

Rishi Sunak’s official spokesman said: “In relation to the specific contractor involved in this incident, a security review of that contractor’s operations is under way and appropriate steps will be taken after that.”

No 10 declines to attribute cyberattack to specific state

12:41 , Andy Gregory

Downing Street has declined to attribute the reported cyberattack on the Ministry of Defence to a specific state or actor.

Asked whether China was responsible for the attack, Rishi Sunak’s official spokesman said: “The defence secretary is going to give an update to parliament on this this afternoon.

“You will appreciate I’m obviously limited in what I can say until then, other than the Ministry of Defence has already taken immediate action, isolating the network and supporting personnel affected.

“I can’t get into any further speculation around the origination of the attack.”

Muslim group issues 18 demands for Keir Starmer to win back voters lost over Gaza

12:33 , Andy Gregory

A Muslim campaign group has issued Sir Keir Starmer with 18 demands in order to win back support lost due to his stance on Israel’s war in Gaza.

The Muslim Vote, which aims to organise voters against MPs who did not back a ceasefire in the conflict, has called for the Labour leader to apologise for his early stance on Israel’s campaign against Hamas.

And it has urged Sir Keir to promise to cut military ties with Israel and let Muslims pray in schools and for Labour figures to return “zionist money”.

Our political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:

Muslim group issues 18 demands for Keir Starmer to win back voters lost over Gaza

Record proportion of voters expect Labour to win next election, polling suggests

12:21 , Andy Gregory

Just one in five voters expect the Conservative Party to win at the next general election, new polling by Redfield & Wilton suggests.

That compares with 63 per cent who believe Labour will win – the highest proportion ever recorded by the pollster.

The situation marks an utter reversal in summer 2021, prior to the Partygate scandal, when 55 per cent of voters believed the Tories would win the next election and less than 25 per cent thought Labour would.

The two parties were tied on around 40 per cent in the early days of Liz Truss’s premiership, until Tory fortunes plummeted significantly and Labour’s rose correspondingly in the wake of her disastrous mini-Budget.

Humza Yousaf signs official resignation letter to King

12:12 , Andy Gregory

Scotland’s outgoing first minister Humza Yousaf has signed his official resignation letter to King Charles.

Mr Yousaf signed the letter at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh.

He is expected to make a speech at Holyrood later ahead of a vote on new SNP leader John Swinney becoming Scotland’s new first minister.

Tories must unite to bring back voters who stayed away in local elections, minister says

12:00 , Andy Gregory

Rishi Sunak must win back “disgruntled” Conservative voters to give the party a hope of general election victory, work and pensions Secretary Mel Stride has said.

Mr Stride insisted the Tories still have “all to play for” in the general election despite the drubbing inflicted in local and regional contests. But in a message to the prime minister’s Tory critics, Mr Stride said the party had to be “united” to win back voters.

Mr Stride, a close ally of Mr Sunak’s, said a lot of Conservative voters “stayed away” from the ballot boxes because they were “disgruntled” – but insised the upcoming general election will be an “entirely difference contest”.

Acknowledging that the results from the local elections had been “very painful”, he told Times Radio: “This is a volatile electorate, there are undoubtedly people that we need to win back to the Conservative cause.

“I suspect a large number of those people stayed away on election day last Thursday, and it’s down to us now to do absolutely everything we can in a united way as the party to bring back those people to the Conservative fold.”

Sian Berry steps down days after re-election

11:51 , Andy Gregory

Former Green Party co-leader Sian Berry has stepped down from the London Assembly just days after being re-elected, to make way at City Hall for the party’s mayoral candidate Zoe Garbett.

Watch: Infected blood scandal is greatest injustice country has seen, claims Andy Burnham

11:37 , Andy Gregory

Rachel Reeves says government ‘gaslighting’ public about economy

11:22 , Andy Gregory

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has accused the government of “gaslighting” the public about the economy, saying ministers’ over-optimistic statements are “out of touch” with Britons still struggling with the cost of living, reports Sophie Wingate.

Seeking to get ahead of the Tories’ response to a raft of economic data this week, the Labour frontbencher argued that Jeremy Hunt and Rishi Sunak’s likely message of an improving economy is “deluded”.

In a speech in the City of London on Tuesday, she warned that voters at the general election have a choice between “five more years of chaos” with the Tories or “stability” with Sir Keir Starmer’s party.

As Labour celebrates a string of victories in regional mayoral contests, local elections and a by-election in Blackpool South, Ms Reeves said the results showed that people “voted for change”.

Her intervention comes ahead of the Bank of England’s latest interest rates decision on Thursday and figures covering the economy’s performance over the first three months of this year on Friday.

Rachel Reeves says Rishi Sunak government ‘gaslighting’ public about economy

Security services ‘investigating whether China trying to build profiles of British military personnel’

10:31 , Andy Gregory

The UK’s security services are investigating whether China is attempting to build profiles of members of the armed forces and people in other sensitive roles through a series of hacks of different databases holding personal information, British officials familiar with the matter have told Bloomberg.

Tory MP Tobias Ellwood earlier told the BBC that the targeting of a payroll system “points to China” and could be part of “strategy to see who might be coerced”.

Data stolen from NHS health board published on dark web

10:26 , Andy Gregory

The recent cyberattack targeting the Ministry of Defence came as a large volume of data stolen during a cyber attack on an NHS health board was published by a ransomware group.

Cyber criminals were able to access a significant amount of data including patient and staff-identifiable information during the attack on NHS Dumfries and Galloway which began at the end of February.

Data relating to a small number of patients was released in March, and the hackers had threatened that more would follow.

‘So many serious questions’ over alleged cyberattack, warns Labour

10:11 , Andy Gregory

There are “so many serious questions” surrounding the Ministry of Defene cyberattack, Labour’s shadow defence secretary John Healey has said.

China poses ‘systemic threat’ to UK, claims former Tory leader

09:57 , Andy Gregory

The revelation comes after the UK and the US accused China in March of a global campaign of “malicious” cyberattacks, in an unprecedented joint operation to reveal Beijing’s espionage.

Britain blamed Beijing for targeting the Electoral Commission watchdog in 2021 and for being behind a campaign of online “reconnaissance” aimed at the email accounts of MPs and peers.

In response to the Beijing-linked hacks on the Electoral Commission and 43 individuals, a front company, Wuhan Xiaoruizhi Science and Technology Company, and two people linked to the APT31 hacking group were sanctioned.

But some of the MPs targeted by the Chinese state said the response did not go far enough, urging the Government to toughen its stance on China by labelling it a “threat” to national security rather than an “epoch-defining challenge”.

Conservative former leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith repeated those calls, telling Sky News: “This is yet another example of why the UK Government must admit that China poses a systemic threat to the UK and change the integrated review to reflect that.

“No more pretence, it is a malign actor, supporting Russia with money and military equipment, working with Iran and North Korea in a new axis of totalitarian states.”

Shapps will set out plan to protect military personnel, MoD says

09:48 , Andy Gregory

Defence secretary Grant Shapps “will make a planned statement to the House of Commons this afternoon setting out the multi-point plan to support and protect personnel”, the Ministry of Defence has confirmed.

Ministers will blame hostile and malign actors, but will not name the country behind the hacking.

Britain Defense Data Breach (Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

No evidence data removed from payroll database

09:40 , Andy Gregory

It is understood that initial investigations have found no evidence that data has been removed from the third-party payroll database.

But affected service personnel will be alerted as a precaution and provided with specialist advice. They will be able to use a personal data protection service to check whether their information is being used or an attempt is being made to use it.

All salaries were paid at the last payday, with no issues expected at the next one at the end of this month, although there may be a slight delay in the payment of expenses in a small number of cases.

Targeting payroll system ‘points to China’, claims senior Tory

09:22 , Andy Gregory

Senior Tory MP Tobias Ellwood has said the targeting of a third-party payroll system used by the Ministry of Defence has all the hallmarks of a Chinese cyber attack.

The ex-soldier and former Commons defence committee chair told BBC’s Radio 4 Today programme: “Targeting the names of the payroll system and service personnel’s bank details, this does point to China because it can be as part of a plan, a strategy to see who might be coerced.”

Mr Ellwood said China had been caught out trying to gain information from RAF pilots in the past.

Beijing claims it ‘firmly opposes and fights all forms of cyberattacks’

09:18 , Andy Gregory

China as appeared to deny reports claiming it was behind a cyberattack on Britain’s Ministry of Defence.

In a statement, China’s foreign ministry said: “China firmly opposes and fights all forms of cyberattacks. China also rejects use of this politically to smear other countries.”

MoD acted ‘very swiftly’ to take database offline, minister says

09:12 , Andy Gregory

The government’s work and pensions minister Mel Stride said the database allegedly targeted in the attack, which was managed by an external contractor, had been taken offline quickly and that more information on the attack would be provided soon.

“The MoD has acted very swiftly to take this database offline. It’s a third-party database and certainly not one run directly by the MoD,” he told Sky News.

Full report: UK’s Ministry of Defence ‘hacked by China’

09:10 , Andy Gregory

A massive Chinese cyberattack targeted the UK’s Ministry of Defence in a breach revealing the details of armed forces personnel, according to reports.

The attack, believed to have been done two or three times, was on a third-party payroll system including the details of tens of thousands of British armed forces and veterans.

The MoD has been working over the last three days to understand the scale of the hack, after it was recently discovered, Sky News reported. The Ministry of Defence was approached for comment.

It is not believed any data was taken and the MoD urged service people not to be concerned for their safety. MPs will be told about the attack on Tuesday.

My colleague Alexander Butler has more in this report:

China suspected of massive cyber attack on database of UK armed forces personnel

09:09 , Andy Gregory

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on The Independent’s politics liveblog, where we’ll be bringing you the latest updates on reports of a huge cyberattack targeting Britain’s Ministry of Defence.