Bristol City predicted team vs Nottingham Forest: Liam Manning has two big decisions to make

Matty James celebrates with Haydon Roberts after scoring the winner against Millwall (Rhianna Chadwick/PA Wire)

The seven-point margin between Bristol City and sixth place in the Championship is a pretty conclusive argument against this rather dramatic question but we will ask it anyway: does the Robins’ season fall on tonight?

After all, the victory over West Ham in the third round at Ashton Gate has been City’s lone triumph inside nine games and has enabled a certain optimism to surround the team amid a frustrating run of draws and defeats.

Beating Nottingham Forest tonight at the City Ground would further enhance such a feeling, while also adding colour to a campaign that has ultimately been a disappointing one for the fanbase, on and off the field.

Defeat and elimination from the FA Cup will allow City to focus on trying to bridge that aforementioned gap on the play-offs but, right now, and based on the first game between the two sides, a win over Forest seems a more realistic prospect than a genuine late-season run at the play-offs.

Manchester United, of course, lie in wait which brings the prospect of another highlight but, for now City have to concentrate on overcoming a team they were more the equal of 12 days ago, but must ensure that doesn’t become a missed opportunity.

Here’s how we think City will line up against the Premier League side…

Goalkeeper and defence

For the first time in eight-and-a-half weeks, City are preparing for a fixture without the presence of Cam Pring in their defence, snapping the run of 13 consecutive games alongside George Tanner, Zak Vyner and Rob Dickie in the Robins backline.

Pring is suspended after a second yellow card in the competition against Forest in the first match (a bit of an extreme rule, if you ask me, surely three is more sensible) and it leaves a sizeable hole on the left-hand side.

There are two ways of coming at this problem, firstly in terms of personnel and then system, with the latter dictating the identity of who replaces him. Manning has played a 3-4-2-1 for six straight games now, primarily since Ross McCrorie returned to fitness, but without Pring, and Mark Sykes not quite fit to fill in on that side, there is no natural alternative on the left.

Haydon Roberts is the like-for-like switch but the 21-year-old is more of a left-back than a wing-back – some even say, really, he’s a centre-back and will ultimately end up specialising there as he was in his youth-team days – and should Manning want to start him, it seems something of a gamble to immediately place him in a position of uncertainty.

Roberts hasn’t played any competitive minutes since late October and while wing-back does off the protection of an extra centre-back (Dickie) to cover around, it just seems it may place too much pressure on the defence.

The alternatives are to keep the three-man defence and opt for Sam Bell at left wing-back (definitely possible) or even bring McCrorie across. But this leads to further disruption to the team and shape when, in essence, all you’re doing is replacing one player.

So if Roberts is to come in, it seems that City may well revert to a four-man defence which then poses a question on the right, given Vyner and Dickie should be the starting centre-backs.

Tanner had an uncomfortable evening against Leeds United, no more so than anyone else in the defence, admittedly, after what’s been a period of strong performances but he may well be the odd-man out here given what McCrorie can do in an attacking sense.

With Tanner as an orthodox right-back, you lose a degree of momentum in the final third. This is ultimately a cup tie in which one team has to win, so you want as many players on the pitch to enable that. No disrespect to Tanner, but if this was a league game he’d probably have a stronger case.

The caveat to that is Middlesbrough on Saturday and if McCrorie starts tonight, can he then play at the Riverside but, really, the game in hand should be the primary focus and trying to win that. The Scot is gradually building his minutes up as a starter – 61, 63, 68 and 73 – and can be managed accordingly tonight. Plus the fact Tanner represents a solid addition off the bench towards the end of the game should things go according to plan.

Midfield

If we’re naming a back four, we have to stick with it throughout the team but irrespective of what the system is, Manning will select two holding midfielders, whether in a 4-2-3-1, a 4-3-3 or a 3-4-2-1.

We know one of them won’t be Taylor Gardner-Hickman as the 22-year-old is suspended for the same dumb rule as Pring, which leaves two from three, or maybe four if you extend it to Jason Knight.

Joe Williams, Matty James and Andy King are the trio in question and if there’s one certainty it’s that the former will play. He experienced an off-night against Leeds and if anyone will have the bit between their teeth to make amends for that performance, it’ll be Williams.

As for his partner in the engine room, it essentially comes down to James’ fitness and how he’s recovered and feeling after that knock against Leeds. The midfielder spoke to the media on Monday and seemed in good spirits, was confident about the injury and said it was feeling better than it did on Saturday.

But that was before he had trained on it, so while important at the time was also irrelevant in selecting a team 48 hours later. We only have assumption here so we’re going with James getting through it and being able to start but if he can’t make it, then King will step in for his first start since Ipswich Town at the end of October – coincidentally enough also Roberts’ last appearance.

That is unless Manning wants to bring Knight into a deeper role, which last happened back in November at QPR in his first game in charge. It wasn’t particularly successful that afternoon and speaking on Monday the head coach did detail how he feels the Irishman’s qualities off the ball are better served higher up the pitch.

Attack

Working on the theory of Knight in the No10 role, and we should add that Scott Twine is both injured and cup tied before you question the absence of his name in such a discussion, it leaves two spots out on the flanks.

Starting with the right, we have perhaps overlooked the possibility of Tanner at right-back and McCrorie in a more advanced position, which isn’t completely out of the question, but again is altering the overall dynamic of the team a little too much which may be required on the left and in midfield (if James doesn’t make it), so you therefore want to keep changes elsewhere minimal.

In that context, it’s between Bell and Harry Cornick and given the latter hasn’t really played consistently wide for some time now, with Manning using him as a substitute striker or in a withdrawn role. That said, he did end up there in the closing stages against Coventry – where he very nearly scored and supplied some dangerous crosses – but it seems a leap to take that into the start of a game.

Which is why it’ll surely be Bell who seems to be copping a bit of heat from supporters for his final ball, but the 21-year-old is capable of making things happen out there and his pace and direct running, with McCrorie over and under-lapping, could be a real weapon against Forest.

We don’t expect to see Conway out on the left again, Manning admitted as much, so that leaves Anis Mehmeti on that side of the pitch and it’ll be interesting to see if he can bring some of the chemistry he showed with Roberts way back in August.

As for the central striker, if Conway isn’t in a wide role, he’ll surely get the nod over Nahki Wells who had a frustrating night against Leeds and may be more in consideration for Boro on the weekend. Conway has, ultimately, proved to be City’s man for the occasion on FA Cup nights.

Bristol City (4-2-3-1): Max O’Leary; Ross McCrorie, Zak Vyner, Rob Dickie, Haydon Roberts; Matty James, Joe Williams; Sam Bell, Jason Knight, Anis Mehmeti; Tommy Conway

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