Trump’s downfall won’t be his trial, but his campaign trail failures

WASHINGTON – As Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York City clatters into its third full week, the former president spent another weekend off the campaign trail and mostly out of the limelight.

At the end of Friday’s tear-stained testimony by his former White House communications director Hope Hicks, Trump retreated from the Big Apple to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

The weekend witnessed a fundraising event in Palm Beach attended by several Republican frontrunners in the race to become his running mate.

But since his criminal trial began, Trump has mostly eschewed interacting directly with voters in the key electoral battleground states where Joe Biden is already investing $30m of his campaign war chest in an effort to outpace his rival.

The president’s blitz will continue this week. On Monday, he will travel to Wisconsin for the fourth time this year, and then on to Illinois. Since Trump’s trial began last month, the former president has only hosted two rallies – in brief dashes to Wisconsin and Michigan last Wednesday.

Trump’s strategy – if it is deliberate – is curious. The Manhattan courthouse – where he’s accused of falsifying business records in an effort to cover up hush money payments made to former porn star Stormy Daniels – only requires his physical presence four days a week. The court does not sit on Wednesdays or at weekends.

Yet Trump has failed to take advantage of his free days, despite grousing about the inequity of being removed from the campaign trail by the criminal process.

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When the trial began, Trump insisted he would maximise whatever opportunities he had to campaign, even vowing to make stops in heavily Democratic New York. He would, he claimed, “make a big play” for the state, insisting that its authorities were engaged in “election interference” by bringing charges against him.

So far, only one event has materialised: a visit last month to Harlem where Trump made false claims about a city crime wave (in reality, violent crime is down in Manhattan and across the US). Trump claims the latest FBI statistics are “fake numbers”; fact-checkers say they are accurate.

There may be several reasons for Trump’s decision to stay off the campaign trail. First, the criminal case involves tiring hours in court where – on several occasions – he has nodded off during dull procedure. Trump, a notorious control freak, is reported to be dissatisfied with the performance of his lawyers, and may be spending vital hours outside the court berating them and urging them to shift strategies.

It is equally possible that Trump wants to do nothing to remove the focus from court. There is evidence the case has helped cement his support, with polling suggesting only three voters in ten believe prosecutors who have brought charges against him in four jurisdictions are treating the former president fairly.

Trump denies all the charges.

He may also be making a prudent financial choice. Election day is still six months away, and by the end of March, Biden retained a commanding financial advantage over his rival. Trump’s lieutenants claim that in April his campaign closed the gap, raising more than $76m, but the veracity of that assertion will only be tested when legal filings are made with the Federal Election Commission later this month.

Trump aides claim that their man will soon return to a full schedule of campaign appearances. There is talk of upcoming fundraisers and rallies in Kentucky, Nevada, and Texas, and visits to New Jersey and Washington, DC.

The Trump campaign maintains the former president will re-engage with voters in New York. Given that he will be spending four days a week in court there until at least the end of this month, he certainly lacks no shortage of time if he wants to try to put the Democratic stronghold “in play”.