Dementia test developed that can predict if you'll get disease in next 15 years

The test is said to be 90% accurate

Scientists have developed a dementia blood test that they say has an accuracy of 90% in predicting who will be diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease in the next 15 years. A Warwick University research project revealed shifts in 11 essential proteins may suggest someone might develop dementia.

Professor Jianfeng Feng, from the computer science department at the university, hailed this as a “breakthrough”.

He added: “This test could be seamlessly integrated into the NHS and used as a screening tool by GPs.” An NHS blood test for Alzheimer’s disease has been considered the ultimate achievement for dementia researchers, and this study brings us a step closer to regular population screening.

The advent of dementia medications and lifestyle changes could help patients whose thought processes and memory abilities have not yet been drastically affected by irreversible brain damage. At present, standard NHS practices in the UK for diagnosing dementia include comprehensive cognitive tests and potentially invasive procedures to analyse spinal fluid.

The study, thought to be the largest of its kind, was conducted jointly with Fudan University in China using data on participants in the UK Biobank. It has been published in the journal Nature Aging.

Researchers analyzed the blood samples from 53,000 healthy people collected between 2006 and 2010. Over a follow-up period of 10 to 15 years 1,400 people went on to develop dementias including Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia.

Using artificial intelligence researchers identified 11 proteins in the liquid component of blood known as the plasma which were markers for the biological changes that happen in people who have forms dementia including Alzheimer’s disease. One such protein – known as GFAP – has previously been identified as a potential biomarker in smaller studies.

Dr Richard Oakley, associate director at the Alzheimer’s Society, said: “It’s very early days and lots more work is needed but this could lay the groundwork for the early prediction of dementia.”

Prof Tara Spires-Jones, President of the British Neuroscience Association, said: “This adds to what we know about changes in blood that occur very early in diseases that cause dementia, which will be important for early diagnosis in the future. However it is important to note that these are still scientific research studies and that there are currently no blood tests available for routine use that can diagnose dementia with certainty.”

BBC’s Panorama followed UK participants on major clinical trials into the first two drugs shown to slow the progression of dementia. The trials of Lecanemab and Donanemab showed they slowed the rate of brain deterioration but came with a risk of significant side effects.

The show, called Alzheimer’s: A Turning Point, heard how the drugs could be the first of many able to tackle the disease. Fiona Carragher, director at Alzheimer’s Society, said: “Dementia is the UK’s biggest killer and these first, ground-breaking new treatments are a defining moment in the fight against the devastation it causes. They bring hope that Alzheimer’s disease could one day be considered a long-term condition alongside diabetes or asthma, where people have treatments that allow them to effectively manage their symptoms and continue to live fulfilled lives.”

“Dementia is the UK’s biggest killer and these first, ground-breaking new treatments are a defining moment in the fight against the devastation it causes. They bring hope that Alzheimer’s disease could one day be considered a long-term condition alongside diabetes or asthma, where people have treatments that allow them to effectively manage their symptoms and continue to live fulfilled lives.” But she also warned: “But only a relatively small number of people will be able to access treatments if we don’t urgently fix dementia diagnosis and gear up the NHS to deliver them.

“We need urgent NHS investment in diagnostic equipment and workforce skills so it’s ready to cope with a potential surge in demand for diagnosis and treatment and can deliver these emerging new treatments if they are approved by regulators.”