Trade setup for July 6: As Nifty fails to cross a key hurdle, more pain on the cards for the bulls

Indian equity benchmarks gave up intraday gains of more than one percent in the last hour of trade on Monday, dragged by a sharp reversal in financial and IT shares. Aggressive hikes in pandemic-era interest rates and their impact on economic growth kept investors nervous. What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now? The Nifty50 has formed a reasonable negative candle on the daily chart with a long upper shadow, confirming crucial resistance in the 15,850-15,950 zone, according to Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. “One may expect further weakness in the short term as such false breakouts in the past have resulted in minor downward corrections amid rangebound moves,” he said.  More of sideways action likely Independent technical analyst Manish Shah is of the view the index is showing signs of rangebound action between 15,600 and 16,050. “It needs to break above 16,050 for a rally to 16,300 and beyond… A drop to support at 15,600-15,580 levels could be a buying opportunity,” he said. Here are key things to know about the market ahead of the July 6 session: Global markets Wall Street’s main indices fell on Tuesday, with investors fretting about the possibility of an economic recession as they resumed trade after a long weekend. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones were down 1.9 percent each in early hours. The tech stocks-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 1.4 percent.

European shares as a strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers exacerbated worries about an energy shock. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 1.7 percent.

What to expect on Dalal Street

HDFC Securities’ Shetti believes the short-trend of the 50-scrip benchmark has reversed to be weak.

The Nifty50 may return to the 15,600-15,500 levels in the near term.

Important levels to track The Nifty50 and the Nifty Bank are about eight percent below their long-term simple moving averages in a bearish sign.

Period (No. of sessions) Simple moving average
Nifty50 Nifty Bank
5 15,795.5 33,598.3
10 15,732.9 33,505.3
20 15,760.3 33,543.1
50 16,164.1 34,370.7
100 16,643.5 35,409.2
200 17,144 36,568.9

Shah expects the banking index to extend a fall below 33,700 all the way to 33,100.

“The Nifty Bank is in a range between 33,400 and 33,100. It needs to move above 33,400-33,450 levels for a rally to 35,900-36,000 levels,” he said.

He believes it will continue to oscillate between a broad range of 33,100-34,000 for a prolonged period.

FII/DII activity

trade setup for july 6: as nifty fails to cross a key hurdle, more pain on the cards for the bulls
© Provided by CNBCTV18

Call/put open interest

The maximum call open interest is accumulated at the strike price of 16,000, with 1.8 lakh contracts, and the next highest at 16,200, with 1.5 lakh contracts, according to exchange data. The maximum put open interest is at 15,500, with 1.1 lakh contracts, and 15,700, with almost one lakh. This suggests immediate resistance at the 16,000 mark and immediate support at 15,700. Long build-up Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price:

Stock Current OI CMP Price change (%) OI change (%)
CROMPTON 3,796,500 354.5 1.63% 16.00%
SRTRANSFIN 3,339,000 1,242.80 0.78% 11.46%
ONGC 71,421,350 126.65 0.32% 10.66%
UBL 956,800 1,577.15 1.61% 10.54%
CIPLA 7,598,500 940.2 0.70% 7.98%

Long unwinding

Stock Current OI CMP Price change (%) OI change (%)
GUJGASLTD 3,581,250 431 -1.17% -5.27%
MFSL 1,498,250 808.8 -0.23% -1.74%
JKCEMENT 395,250 2,177.80 -1.08% -1.71%
ITC 90,076,800 286.6 -1.53% -1.69%
OBEROIRLTY 5,087,600 764.4 -0.42% -1.54%

(Decrease in open interest as well as price)

Short covering

Stock Current OI CMP Price change (%) OI change (%)
ALKEM 230,600 3,049.85 0.05% -2.52%
MCX 3,254,000 1,306 1.19% -2.35%
RELIANCE 36,193,500 2,429.35 0.38% -1.50%
COALINDIA 31,365,600 182.55 0.08% -1.43%
TORNTPOWER 3,231,000 468 0.85% -1.02%

(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)

Short build-up

Stock Current OI CMP Price change (%) OI change (%)
SRF 3,409,875 2,046.50 -6.58% 19.22%
RBLBANK 42,400,000 81.6 -7.01% 10.98%
SYNGENE 818,000 549 -1.77% 10.51%
DIXON 557,250 3,508.05 -2.47% 9.49%
ICICIPRULI 6,103,500 499 -2.54% 8.23%

(Decrease in price and increase in open interest)

52-week highs Five stocks on the BSE 500 — the broadest index on the bourse — touched the milestone: ITC, Chalet Hotels, Siemens, Mahindra Lifespace and Varun Beverages.

52-week lows

Four stocks on the 500-scrip index hit 52-week lows: Indiabulls Housing Finance, Wockhardt, Thyrocare and IndiaMART.

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