Tories’ standing in eyes of the public has hit new depths

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak celebrates in Teesside with Lord Ben Houchen – Owen Humphreys/PA

As they toured the media studios on Friday, Conservative spokesmen argued it was not surprising that the party was losing ground.

They pointed out that, in the local elections three years ago, their party had done remarkably well.

Contrary to the typical experience when a party is in government, the Conservatives had gained councils and councillors – and even gained a seat in the Hartlepool by-election. Thus, they concluded, there was no need for undue alarm over the results now.

Up to a point. While the Conservatives had undoubtedly performed well in 2021, it was against a backdrop of only a modest lead of six points in the opinion polls.

That was only half what Boris Johnson achieved in 2019, and not much more than could be needed for the party to win another overall majority this year.

So, while some losses on Thursday might have been commensurate with the party still being within touching distance of being able to win the forthcoming general election, losing nearly one in two of the seats the party was defending was not.

When the round of elections held on Thursday was held back in 2016, the Conservatives lost ground too. Nevertheless, they still won 30 per cent of the seats being contested. This time around they have won just 20 per cent, even fewer than the Liberal Democrats.

That is perhaps the clearest indication of the depths to which the party’s standing in the eyes of the public has now fallen, just six months at most from a general election.

Of course, there were some silver linings in the results. Above all, the party retained the Tees Valley mayoralty, which enabled its spokesmen to argue that if Labour could not win there now, what hope did they have of knocking down the Red Wall?

However, hopes that Andy Street would also manage to hang on in the West Midlands were dashed in a very tight contest.

Trouble is, of the many and varied electoral battles fought on Thursday, the mayoral contests probably provided the least reliable guide to the parties’ prospects in a general election.

As those who campaigned for the creation of directly elected mayors have argued, voters are more likely to vote for the personality rather than the party in these high-profile contests.

Polling conducted in Tees Valley suggests that current support for the Conservatives in a general election is 20 points below that in the mayoral contest.

While the party can argue that the success of Ben Houchen in Tees Valley is a testament to the party’s ability to find good mayors, it does not necessarily mean that voters would necessarily vote Conservative in a general election.

Not that Labour can simply sit back and relax. In the local council elections outside London the party often lost ground, and sometimes heavily, in wards where many identify as Muslim.

On average in a sample of wards where the BBC collected the detailed voting figures, support for Labour where more than 10 per cent say they are Muslim was on average down by as much as 14 points on last year.

These results suggest that some Muslims are very unhappy with Sir Keir Starmer’s stance on the conflict in Gaza. His party’s fall in support was especially sharp in Muslim wards, which have previously voted heavily for Labour, and where perhaps concern about Gaza is not confined to Muslim voters.

And although this meant that Labour often still retained the seat, the party did suffer some significant losses to a variety of independent and minor party candidates, most notably in Oldham, where it cost Labour control.

Indeed, a broader message from the ballot boxes was that voters demonstrated a remarkable readiness to vote for candidates from outside the political mainstream. Their numbers increased by nearly 100, taking seats off the Conservatives as well as Labour.

Here, perhaps was a warning to all of Britain’s politicians.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde, and Senior Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe. He is also co-host of the Trendy podcast

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