BOE's Bailey Expects 'Strong Drop' in UK Inflation Next Month

It’s our job to get it back to to target sustainably and I’m I’m very happy to you know have any any any good news judgments sort of you know put on hold and you can see what happens. So that’s that’s the first point I’d make. I think it’s important to make that point. So the outlook I think is interesting. So if I, if you don’t mind if I go back to early February when we did our last sort of quarterly report. We made, we made a very important change in our language then from saying how restrictive all policy needs to be to for how long will we need to be in this position. And that was deliberate. It was very deliberate because we saw, you know, that we had, you know there has been quite a change in the UK situation. We are experiencing, you know quite a quite a pronounced period of disinflation, thank goodness I would say as as the Governor. I think what we’re seeing is that these global, global shocks to inflation draw the distinction between inflation and price levels. There are unwinding. And that’s obviously very good news, the role of monetary policy because as we’ve said for a long time has been to, you know, counteract the. Likelihood of second round effects from those shocks becoming embedded, we can no doubt come back to that. Now where we are today is and we’ve had numbers obviously this morning in the UK is that we’re actually pretty much on track for where we thought we would be at the beginning of February. We went slightly under at the start of just after February and we’ve we’re little very small amount over today. But look in the context of some of the sort of forecast errors that you know we were talking about with Ben Bernanke during the sort of you know the really volatile period we’re back to sort of nought point ones and nought point twos. So that’s that’s sort of feels a bit more sort of sort of things you deal with all the time. So I think we’re back in a position where we’re in a position where we’re seeing this process of disinflation. I expect that next month’s number will show quite a strong drop because we have a particularly unique energy, household energy pricing system in the UK. The next change to the to the level will come in, in this month’s data released in a month’s time. We know what that is already because the observation period’s finished. So I would expect inflation to come, come quite a bit down towards target. Where it will be exactly around target, we’ll see.