The Recession-Oil-Crash Might be Here as Crude Tumbles $10

the recession-oil-crash might be here as crude tumbles $10
© Reuters The Recession-Oil-Crash Might be Here as Crude Tumbles $10

By Barani Krishnan — The back-and-forth recession story in oil made a stunning lurch forward on Tuesday as crude tumbled as much as $10 a barrel, whipping bulls just settling in from post-holiday languor.

The dollar’s jump to two-decade highs on expectations of aggressive Fed rate hikes though also incentivized selling in oil, which tends to attract less buying from non-U.S. entities when the value of the greenback surges.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, was down $9.31, or 8.6%, to $99.12 per barrel by 12:45 PM ET (16:45 GMT). The U.S. crude benchmark had finished June down more than 7%.

London-traded Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, was the bigger loser on the day, falling a mouth-gaping $10.60, or 9.3%, to $102.90. Brent fell nearly 6% last month.

“We’ve been warning longs in the market for a while not to get too cushy with $120 oil with all these recession talks going around,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. “Today is proof that the recession story is only going to go forth, and with stunning velocity. Of course, there’ll be pullbacks in the narrative from time to time. So, welcome to a new era of volatility as well.”

Deepening worries about a recession could weigh on the demand outlook for oil this week despite tight supply concerns and prospects of US job gains in June that could send crude prices into a new bout of volatility.

The drone of recession talk is expected to get louder across the United States after the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s forecast of a second straight quarter of economic decline for the year.

Wednesday’s minutes from the US central bank’s June meeting will give investors some insight into how policymakers see the future path of interest rates as markets remain focused on the prospect of a recession.

The Fed is expected to push ahead with another 75 basis point rate hike at its upcoming July meeting, but the path for September is less clear.

Economists say the United States may be witnessing the beginnings of a real economic shakedown, only that it’s been too numb to notice because of the miraculous resilience of its consumers insulated by two years of pandemic aid money; a housing market still running on old stimulus energy; and stock markets often coming back after a few days of selloffs.

But U.S. consumers won’t be superheroes forever and the slide into the economic abyss could come faster than thought, warn analysts.

In oil markets especially, the prospect of a recession has created more two-way price action in recent weeks, preventing any unsustainable surges in the price of crude even as China reopened from COVID shutdowns and an oil workers’ strike in Norway loomed.

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White Water Rafting or KayakingMount Fuji Overnight Climb ItinerarySip & Gogh Paint Studio: Unleash Your Inner Van Gogh | LakwatseroBatanes ItineraryHow to Get to Quitinday HillsAbout Callao CaveDiscover LakawonBiking to Taal: A Fun Ride to Batangas’ Heritage TownAntique Blooming: The Rafflesia of San RemigioMalasimbo Lights and Dance FestivalBacolod ItineraryPoon HillAttractions in Mirador Heritage and Eco ParkHulhumale Public BeachRomblon Island: Bonbon Beach, Tiamban Beach & MoreAdventure in Sabah: White Water Rafting in Padas River | LakwatseroHow to Get to Hinakpan Mystical HillsWelcome to Lake SebuAbout CasiguranAbout BuscalanHow to Go to Kalanggaman IslandFaro de Cabo Bojeador (Cape Bojeador Lighthouse)Backpacking Maldives: Budget Itinerary, Expenses & TipsHow to Get ThereOffbeat Bohol Itinerary: 3D/2N of AdventuresHow to Get to Tawi-TawiAlona BeachPangilatan Falls: The Forgotten Gem of Tapaz, CapizWorld War I: SMS Cormoran II3D/2N Taiwan Itinerary: Taipei – Yehliu – ShiffenLaos for Backpackers: Getting There on a BudgetBasic RequirementsHow to Get to Antong FallsCathedral CaveHow to Go to Gubat, SorsogonAbout SadangaHow to Get to Bugui Point LighthouseHow to Get to Cabra Island LighthouseCebu Itinerary: Three-Day Adventures in the SouthAbout AndaLuna: A Day in the Show Window of Apayao | LakwatseroMargues Blue LagoonFinding Palaui’s Cape Engaño Lighthouse | LakwatseroHow to Get to Mantayupan Falls of Barili, CebuHow to Get to MaligcongLinapacan Islands: Between Paradise | LakwatseroKLIA to KLCCHow to Get to JomaligBanaug ShoalEspadang Bato – Payaran Falls Day Hike Itinerary10 Remarkable Philippine Destinations for Solo TravelMiagao Church: A UNESCO World Heritage Site in IloiloAbout Carbin ReefAbout Parola IslandCabra WreckageCobra Falls: Ozamiz City’s Best Kept SecretBasco: The Chapel on the Hill of Tukon | LakwatseroBack in Kathmandu’s Lovely Mess | LakwatseroHimalayan Adventure: Kathmandu to Pokhara Overland | LakwatseroItineraryChinatown Vancouver (Stop #23)Situbo Falls: Tampilisan's Awesome SurpriseHow to Get to Inambakan FallsTuasan Falls: Another Camiguin’s Charmer | LakwatseroHow to Get to Lake SebuMarinduque Loop: Biking in the Heart of the Philippines1. 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