The Mayawati factor: Can BSP make space for itself in UP's bipolar contest?

The rise of Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh firmly carved a niche for the politics of the marginalised. From being a vote bank to becoming the fulcrum, Dalit politics in northern India decisively shifted to a higher orbit under her.

The creation of a third pole quite distinct from Mandal and Kamandal politics was a herculean feat. Informed by repeated electoral validation, tri-polarisation of Uttar Pradesh polity became the consensus view of political pundits. It was hard to imagine any election bereft of Mayawati’s influence. But now, that consensus has begun to fray.

The opinion polls and conventional analysis are at odds. Projections by various agencies predict a bipolar contest between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BSP) in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Assembly election.

An analysis by CVoter also veers towards the emergence of bipolar polity in Uttar Pradesh. The thought process for the same is as follows.

THE SOCIAL COALITION SAGA

The social coalition that brought Mayawati and her mentor Kanshi Ram to the electoral frontlines was composed of core Jatav voters, other Dalit communities, a section of Muslim voters and a residual segment of OBC voters. Together, this social coalition put the worst-case scenario for the BSP at roughly 20 per cent vote share. This meant that the BSP had to attract an incremental vote share of around 10 per cent to make a bid for simple majority and an incremental vote share of around 5 per cent if in alliance. For example, in the 2007 election, the Brahmins and other voters from outside the BSP fold sided with the BSP to oust the SP. The BSP clocked a high of 30 per cent individual party vote share in Uttar Pradesh in 2007. In the 2012 polls, the SP (29 per cent) was barely able to edge past the BSP (26 per cent) in a close triangular contest in which the BJP declined to 15 per cent vote share.

This equation was valid for polls prior to the 2017 Vidhan Sabha election (if one were to treat 2014 as a wave election at the national level). The performance and dominance of the BJP over three successive elections has led to a reorganisation of various social groups. Primarily, Muslim voters are moving towards Akhilesh Yadav’s SP and some Dalit (non-Jatav) voters are migrating to the BJP. Thus, at the minimum, the BSP will take a hit of around 5 per cent of its core 20 per cent voters. Based on the percentage of voters migrating away from the BSP, the following scenarios can be modelled.

Bane of polarisation

If the BSP’s entire Muslim vote base migrates to the SP, then the party is left with a core vote base of 15 per cent in the state. Further, an erosion of the non-Jatav Dalit vote will see the party drop to its core Jatav base only. In that scenario, the BSP will only poll approximately 12 per cent vote share in Uttar Pradesh. This is the absolute meltdown scenario for the BSP. We may witness an increased likelihood of such a case if the election gets further polarised between the SP and the BJP along communal lines.

The Muslim factor

The failure of the BJP to split the Muslim votes in West Bengal has created a new template for tactical voting among minority voters. Even Owaisi’s AIMIM failed to cut ice with the West Bengal electorate.

The balance of recent evidence, therefore, suggests a lock stock migration of Muslim voters towards the more viable pole of opposition to the BJP. Akin to the fate of the CPM and Congress in West Bengal, the BSP may fail to get votes despite its secular credentials.

However, if the BSP manages to retain its core voters beyond the minority votes, it may poll the middle case scenario of 15 per cent. This social coalition will include Jatavs, non-Jatav Dalits and residual OBC votes.

Best case scenario

The best case scenario for the BSP will be to retain its 2017 core vote base of approximately 20 per cent. This will mean that either the BSP managed to retain the minority voters or it poached the voter base of either the BJP or SP.

Empirical data suggests crystallisation of the core voters of BJP and SP. Thus, it is unlikely that BSP will poach incremental votes from other parties. The only road to 20 per cent vote share for the BSP is through the retention of Muslim votes. The electoral strategy of the party reflects that. It has fielded many minority candidates in the initial rounds to avert the migration of voters to the SP.

Mayawati, and by implication, the BSP’s electoral peak in 2007 (30 per cent vote share) and 2009 (27 per cent vote share) was achieved through a rainbow coalition of its traditional base and other party’s voters. As of now, the party and its leader are hard pressed on both fronts – the core and the periphery. The political circumstances are arrayed against the BSP, and, therefore, the polls are neither under-estimating nor missing out on the grassroots. The numbers projected by various polls are merely indicative of the changed polity and the reaction of various voter groups to the same.

(Yashwant Deshmukh is the founder editor of polling agency CVoter. Manu Sharma is senior editor at CVoter. The views expressed are personal.)

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