The Mayawati factor: Can BSP make space for itself in UP's bipolar contest?

the latest tech news, global tech news daily, tech news today, startups, usa tech, asia tech, china tech, eu tech, global tech, in-depth electronics reviews, 24h tech news, 24h tech news, top mobile apps, tech news daily, gaming hardware, big tech news, useful technology tips, expert interviews, reporting on the business of technology, venture capital funding, programing language

The Mayawati factor: Can BSP make space for itself in UP's bipolar contest?
File photo of Mayawati | PTI

The rise of Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh firmly carved a niche for the politics of the marginalised. From being a vote bank to becoming the fulcrum, Dalit politics in northern India decisively shifted to a higher orbit under her.

the latest tech news, global tech news daily, tech news today, startups, usa tech, asia tech, china tech, eu tech, global tech, in-depth electronics reviews, 24h tech news, 24h tech news, top mobile apps, tech news daily, gaming hardware, big tech news, useful technology tips, expert interviews, reporting on the business of technology, venture capital funding, programing language

The creation of a third pole quite distinct from Mandal and Kamandal politics was a herculean feat. Informed by repeated electoral validation, tri-polarisation of Uttar Pradesh polity became the consensus view of political pundits. It was hard to imagine any election bereft of Mayawati’s influence. But now, that consensus has begun to fray.

The opinion polls and conventional analysis are at odds. Projections by various agencies predict a bipolar contest between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BSP) in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Assembly election.

Global Tech News Daily

An analysis by CVoter also veers towards the emergence of bipolar polity in Uttar Pradesh. The thought process for the same is as follows.

THE SOCIAL COALITION SAGA

The social coalition that brought Mayawati and her mentor Kanshi Ram to the electoral frontlines was composed of core Jatav voters, other Dalit communities, a section of Muslim voters and a residual segment of OBC voters. Together, this social coalition put the worst-case scenario for the BSP at roughly 20 per cent vote share. This meant that the BSP had to attract an incremental vote share of around 10 per cent to make a bid for simple majority and an incremental vote share of around 5 per cent if in alliance. For example, in the 2007 election, the Brahmins and other voters from outside the BSP fold sided with the BSP to oust the SP. The BSP clocked a high of 30 per cent individual party vote share in Uttar Pradesh in 2007. In the 2012 polls, the SP (29 per cent) was barely able to edge past the BSP (26 per cent) in a close triangular contest in which the BJP declined to 15 per cent vote share.

Global Tech News Daily

The Mayawati factor: Can BSP make space for itself in UP's bipolar contest?
© Provided by India Today

This equation was valid for polls prior to the 2017 Vidhan Sabha election (if one were to treat 2014 as a wave election at the national level). The performance and dominance of the BJP over three successive elections has led to a reorganisation of various social groups. Primarily, Muslim voters are moving towards Akhilesh Yadav’s SP and some Dalit (non-Jatav) voters are migrating to the BJP. Thus, at the minimum, the BSP will take a hit of around 5 per cent of its core 20 per cent voters. Based on the percentage of voters migrating away from the BSP, the following scenarios can be modelled.

Bane of polarisation

If the BSP’s entire Muslim vote base migrates to the SP, then the party is left with a core vote base of 15 per cent in the state. Further, an erosion of the non-Jatav Dalit vote will see the party drop to its core Jatav base only. In that scenario, the BSP will only poll approximately 12 per cent vote share in Uttar Pradesh. This is the absolute meltdown scenario for the BSP. We may witness an increased likelihood of such a case if the election gets further polarised between the SP and the BJP along communal lines.

The Muslim factor

The failure of the BJP to split the Muslim votes in West Bengal has created a new template for tactical voting among minority voters. Even Owaisi’s AIMIM failed to cut ice with the West Bengal electorate.

The balance of recent evidence, therefore, suggests a lock stock migration of Muslim voters towards the more viable pole of opposition to the BJP. Akin to the fate of the CPM and Congress in West Bengal, the BSP may fail to get votes despite its secular credentials.

However, if the BSP manages to retain its core voters beyond the minority votes, it may poll the middle case scenario of 15 per cent. This social coalition will include Jatavs, non-Jatav Dalits and residual OBC votes.

Best case scenario

The best case scenario for the BSP will be to retain its 2017 core vote base of approximately 20 per cent. This will mean that either the BSP managed to retain the minority voters or it poached the voter base of either the BJP or SP.

Empirical data suggests crystallisation of the core voters of BJP and SP. Thus, it is unlikely that BSP will poach incremental votes from other parties. The only road to 20 per cent vote share for the BSP is through the retention of Muslim votes. The electoral strategy of the party reflects that. It has fielded many minority candidates in the initial rounds to avert the migration of voters to the SP.

Mayawati, and by implication, the BSP’s electoral peak in 2007 (30 per cent vote share) and 2009 (27 per cent vote share) was achieved through a rainbow coalition of its traditional base and other party’s voters. As of now, the party and its leader are hard pressed on both fronts – the core and the periphery. The political circumstances are arrayed against the BSP, and, therefore, the polls are neither under-estimating nor missing out on the grassroots. The numbers projected by various polls are merely indicative of the changed polity and the reaction of various voter groups to the same.

(Yashwant Deshmukh is the founder editor of polling agency CVoter. Manu Sharma is senior editor at CVoter. The views expressed are personal.)

ALSO READ: Former Congress leader is now BJP-led NDA’s first Muslim candidate for Uttar Pradesh election

ALSO READ: Mandal not kamandal driving 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls | OPINION

News Related

OTHER NEWS

New York Rangers get another comeback win to force Game 7 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

PITTSBURGH — How many times can the New York Rangers dig themselves into a hole and climb back out? At least one more, as of Friday night. The Blueshirts came ... Read more »

Wilson, balanced Aces cruise to 96-73 victory over Dream

COLLEGE PARK, Ga. (AP) — A’ja Wilson scored 15 points, Kelsey Plum had 14 points and 11 assists and the Las Vegas Aces rolled to a 96-73 victory over the ... Read more »

EXPLAINER: Why frustration lingers in Okinawa 50 years later

The Associated PressFILE – U.S. Marine Corps Sgt. Mike Anglen of Turner, Ore., center, stands atop a cliff as Sgt. Bryan Wallace of Pikin, Ill., waits for his turn before ... Read more »

Astros beat Nationals 6-1 for 11th straight victory

WASHINGTON (AP) — Jose Altuve homered on the first pitch of the game, Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel also went deep and the Houston Astros extended their winning streak to ... Read more »

Kreider scores late, Rangers edge Pens 5-3 to force Game 7

PITTSBURGH (AP) — Chris Kreider’s long slap shot bounced over Louis Domingue and into the net with 1:28 left and the New York Rangers beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 5-3 on ... Read more »

Astros push winning streak to 11, roll past Nationals 6-1

WASHINGTON (AP) — Jose Altuve homered on the first pitch of the game, and Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Gurriel also went deep to help the Houston Astros extend their winning ... Read more »

Moustakas, Drury power Reds to 8-2 victory over Pirates

PITTSBURGH (AP) — Mike Moustakas homered twice and Brandon Drury drove in four runs to break out of a slump and lead the resurgent Cincinnati Reds to an 8-2 victory ... Read more »

Peterson's bases-loaded walk lifts Brewers over Marlins 2-1

MIAMI (AP) — Jace Peterson walked against Anthony Bender with the bases loaded in the ninth inning and the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Miami Marlins 2-1 Friday night. After starters ... Read more »

Padres: No cancer found during manager Bob Melvin's prostate surgery

SAN DIEGO (AP) — The San Diego Padres say no cancer was found when manager Bob Melvin had prostate surgery on Wednesday. Melvin, 60, was recovering at home Friday after ... Read more »

Ogunbowale, Gray help Wings rally past Mystics, 94-86

WASHINGTON (AP) — Arike Ogunbowale scored 27 points, Allisha Gray had 21 and the Dallas Wings overcame a 15-point second-quarter deficit to beat the Washington Mystics 94-86 on Friday night. ... Read more »

Resigning North Dakota senator led lawmakers in travel costs

The Associated PressFILE – North Dakota Sen. Ray Holmberg listens during a joint House and Senate Appropriations Committee meeting at the Capitol in Bismarck, N.D., on Jan. 7, 2009. Holmberg, ... Read more »

Residents in picturesque California county hit with gas prices topping $7 a gallon

A California county known for its spectacular mountains and proximity to Yosemite National Park has been paying the nation’s highest gas prices. Read more »

Boudreau to return as coach of Canucks next season

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (AP) — Bruce Boudreau will return as coach of the Vancouver Canucks next season after helping to turn the struggling NHL club around as a midyear replacement. ... Read more »

New Zealand leader Jacinda Ardern tests positive for COVID

On Location: May 13, 2022 Catch up on the developing stories making headlines.The Associated Press WELLINGTON, New Zealand — New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has tested positive for COVID-19 ... Read more »

Today in History for May 14th

Highlights of this day in history: Colonists go ashore in Virginia to set up Jamestown; Lewis and Clark begin to explore Louisiana Territory; Israel founded; Skylab launched; Movie producer George ... Read more »

Twitter CEO expects Elon Musk acquisition to close, addresses spending cuts

Musk is awaiting details supporting calculations that spam, fake accounts represent less than 5% of Twitter's users Read more »

Padres: No cancer found during Bob Melvin's prostate surgery

SAN DIEGO (AP) — The San Diego Padres say no cancer was found when manager Bob Melvin had prostate surgery on Wednesday. Melvin, 60, was recovering at home Friday after ... Read more »

Renovated NYC museum shows indigenous perspectives

The American Museum of Natural History in New York City recently finished a major renovation of its exhibition on the native peoples of the northwest coast of North America. Curators ... Read more »

Police release 911 calls in Gilgo Beach case

A woman who disappeared in a beach community on New York’s Long Island more than a decade ago, sparking an investigation into a possible serial killer, said “there’s somebody after ... Read more »

Academy Awards set 2023 Oscars for March 12

The Associated PressFILE – Oscar statue on the red carpet at the Oscars on Sunday, March 27, 2022, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. Next year’s Academy Awards will ... Read more »

Actor Fred Ward, of 'Tremors,' 'The Right Stuff' fame, dies

The Associated PressFILE – Fred Ward, a cast member in “30 Minutes or Less,” poses at the premiere of the film in Los Angeles on Aug. 8, 2011. Ward, a ... Read more »

Judge refuses to drop elections suit against Trump, media

NEW YORK — A Colorado judge on Friday denied motions to dismiss a defamation lawsuit filed by an election systems worker against former President Donald Trump’s campaign, two of its ... Read more »

Q&A: Becky G unveils every side of herself in latest album

The Associated PressFILE – Becky G appears at the Oscars in Los Angeles on March 27, 2022. Beck G’s latest album is “Esquemas.” (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File) NEW YORK ... Read more »

North Korea reports 21 new deaths as it battles COVID-19 outbreak

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea reports 21 new deaths as it battles COVID-19 outbreak. Read more »

North Korea confirms 21 new deaths as it battles COVID-19

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea says 21 people died and 174,440 people were newly found with fever symptoms on Friday alone as the country scrambles to slow the spread ... Read more »

White Sox place Giolito on COVID list, activate Vaughn

The Chicago White Sox placed ace Lucas Giolito on the COVID-19 injured list and activated outfielder Andrew Vaughn following a rehab assignment with Triple-A Charlotte on Friday. Giolito began experiencing ... Read more »

Traded back and forth, Ford learns to live out of suitcase

NEW YORK (AP) — Mike Ford has learned to travel light — and quickly. Since the start of the season, the 29-year-old first baseman has played for Tacoma, San Francisco ... Read more »

Falcon 9 rocket launches Starlink satellites

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched 53 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from California on Friday. (May 13) Read more »

Celtics' Robert Williams remains out for Game 6 vs. Bucks

MILWAUKEE (AP) — Boston forward/center Robert Williams missed his third straight game with an injured left knee as the Celtics tried to keep their season alive Friday night in Game ... Read more »

Padres sign Robinson Canó, plan to use him off the bench

ATLANTA (AP) — The San Diego Padres have signed veteran second baseman Robinson Canó to a major league contract and plan to use him as a left-handed bat off the ... Read more »

WNBA star's Russia detention extended by 1 month

The lawyer for WNBA star Brittney Griner says her pre-trial detention in Russia has been extended by one month. Alexander Boykov told The Associated Press the relatively short extension indicated ... Read more »

Louisiana justices toss COVID-related charges against pastor

Hundreds of thousands of Americans fighting long-haul symptoms from COVID-19 Dr. David Putrino from Mount Sinai Health System and COVID long-hauler Joel Fram discuss the long-term effects of the disease.The ... Read more »

Sandy Hook lawsuits against Alex Jones on track to resume

The Associated PressFILE – This Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2018, photo shows radio show host and conspiracy theorist Alex Jones at Capitol Hill in Washington. The Sandy Hook families’ lawsuits against ... Read more »

Rockies' Bryant closer to return after cortisone shot

DENVER (AP) — Colorado Rockies outfielder Kris Bryant took swings in the cage Friday for the first time since he was sidelined with a sore back nearly three weeks ago ... Read more »

Mariners demote Jarred Kelenic to minors after poor start

NEW YORK (AP) — Rather than make his Citi Field debut against the team that traded him, Jarred Kelenic was demoted to Triple-A Tacoma by the Seattle Mariners on Friday ... Read more »

Biden: ASEAN partnership 'critical' in this moment

Looking to strengthen ties, President Joe Biden welcomes leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to Washington for the first time. “We’re launching a new era in U.S.-ASEAN relations,” ... Read more »

Phil Mickelson will not defend his title at next week's PGA Championship

Phil Mickelson caught lightning in a bottle last year at Kiawah Island, winning a major championship at 50 years of age. The fairways flooded, and the golf world stood and ... Read more »

Tennessee Titans' Malik Willis on Ryan Tannehill's mentorship comments: 'Everything is cool'

The Tennessee Titans didn’t take issue with Ryan Tannehill’s comments about mentoring third-round rookie Malik Willis. Willis and coach Mike Vrabel were asked about Tannehill’s scrutinized remarks following the first ... Read more »

Lawyers plan suit against Lufthansa over Jewish passengers

Lawyers for 26 passengers said Friday they told Lufthansa that they will sue the German airline for refusing to let members of a large group of Orthodox Jewish passengers board ... Read more »

Wild face offseason after yet another early ouster

While the Minnesota Wild were stacking up franchise records and securing the extra home game for the first round, general manager Bill Guerin carefully acknowledged a “great year” for the ... Read more »