2024 Oscars: The BuzzMeter final winners' predictions!

As we enter the Oscar season homestretch, it’s that time once again for the BuzzMeter to flex its predictive muscles and reveal the movies most likely to take home Academy Awards on March 10.

The hoped-for showdown between summer juggernauts “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” improbably yoked by a meme that launched a box office bonanza and eventually outlived its cleverness, didn’t quite materialize on nominations day. Instead, Christopher Nolan’s epic about the creation of the atom bomb led all-comers with 13 nominations, establishing a firm grip on front-runner status for best picture; meanwhile, Greta Gerwig’s pink-infused ode to the original Material Girl chalked up a more than respectable eight nods, but the omissions of both director Gerwig and star Margot Robbie in their respective categories dimmed its hopes for the big prize and caused more than a few heads to explode among the faithful.

Our six panelists, on the other hand, their choices now pruned by the academy’s own predilections, largely staked out common ground in their prognostications of the names to be called when the envelopes are opened on Oscar night. For the 10 marquee awards, the vote was unanimous in three categories, near-unanimous in three others, with four simply too close to call.

As with the previous two rounds, the BuzzMeter panel submitted ranked ballots with the preferential points system determining the final predictions.

Your 2024 Oscars BuzzMeter panel: Justin Chang, The Los Angeles Times; Tim Cogshell, KPCC’s FilmWeek; Dave Karger, TCM & Entertainment Weekly; Claudia Puig, KPCC’s FilmWeek; Anne Thompson, IndieWire; Glenn Whipp, The Los Angeles Times. ((For The Times: Ricardo DeAratanha; Ricardo DeAratanha; Kent Nishimura; Jason Armond; Jason Armond; Jay L. Clendenin))

“Oppenheimer” took the top spot on all six of our panelists’ final ballots with “Poor Things” and “The Holdovers” earning the majority of the runner-up votes. Glenn Whipp writes, “It’s ‘Oppenheimer.’ It always has been. It’s hard to see a path for any of the other nine nominees to surpass it.”

If there is an upset to be had, Claudia Puig offers, “Don’t count out the warmer, fuzzier ‘The Holdovers’ … Will the Oscar voters vote with their heads or their hearts?”

1. “Oppenheimer”

2. “Poor Things”

3. “The Holdovers”

4. “Killers of the Flower Moon”

5. “Barbie”

6. “American Fiction”

7. “Anatomy of a Fall”

8. “The Zone of Interest”

9. “Maestro”

10. “Past Lives”

The pundits agree once more, with all six predicting that Christopher Nolan will also collect a directing Oscar for “Oppenheimer.”

“It’s time for Christopher Nolan to win,” writes Anne Thompson. “It’s surprising he only has one prior directing nomination (‘Dunkirk’). That’s partly why he’s overdue.”

1. Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)

2. (tie) Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)

2. (tie) Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”)

4. Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Interest”)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)

The first of our split decisions finds Emma Stone holding a one-point lead over Lily Gladstone with both actors receiving three first-place votes.

Justin Chang sees parallels with last year’s contest that saw Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) take an early-season lead only to watch Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) take home the Oscar: “Stone already won the Critics’ Choice Award and will likely win the BAFTA, but Gladstone still has a strong shot to prevail with SAG and the academy.”

1. Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)

2. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)

3. Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)

4. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”)

5. Annette Bening (“Nyad”)

As in the previous category, one point separates the top two contenders with Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy each snaring three first-place votes.

Giamatti has the edge, which Dave Karger attributes to the actor being “a journeyman performer beloved by every pocket of the industry who’s having his true leading-man moment.”

Actor in a leading role

1. Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”)

2. Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)

3. Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)

4. Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)

5. Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)

“Da’Vine Joy Randolph has so completely dominated the supporting actress circuit so far that it would be a shock at this point if anyone else won,” writes Justin Chang.

Five of our six pundits agree, with Danielle Brooks receiving the other first place vote.

Actress in a supporting role

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)

2. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)

3. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)

4. Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)

5. America Ferrera (“Barbie”)

Robert Downey Jr. is also a unanimous choice, more proof of the late-season momentum team “Oppenheimer” has.

“[Downey Jr.] was terrific as the icy, vindictive rival of the (anti)hero in “Oppenheimer,’” writes Glenn Whipp “He’s a star. He’s a survivor. It’s his time.”

1. Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)

2. Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)

3. Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”)

4. Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”)

5. Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)

In one of the tightest races, “The Holdovers” (three first-place votes), “Anatomy of a Fall” (two) and “Past Lives” (one) all garnered strong support from the panel.

Anne Thompson notes that “The Holdovers'” “David Hemingson should take this — the film is popular and plucks the heartstrings.” But Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s script for “Anatomy of a Fall” “is a strong competitor … This could be its only win.”

1. “The Holdovers” — David Hemingson

2. “Past Lives” — Celine Song

3. “Anatomy of a Fall” — Justine Triet, Arthur Harari

4. “May December” — Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik

5. “Maestro” — Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer

Adapted screenplay

Following January’s reassignment of “Barbie” to this category rather than original screenplay, this looms as the film’s best shot at directly knocking off “Oppenheimer.”

Dave Karger is “guessing this is where most voters will choose to recognize the wit, intelligence, and timeliness of Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach’s screenplay.” Five of the six panelists agree, with only Tim Cogshell picking Christopher Nolan’s epic script to win.

1. “Barbie” — Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach

2. “Oppenheimer” — Christopher Nolan

3. “American Fiction” — Cord Jefferson

4. “Poor Things” — Tony McNamara

5. “The Zone of Interest” — Jonathan Glazer

International feature

The unanimous choice here is Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest,” which scored five total nominations.

“If there’s a best picture nominee nominated for international feature, it wins international feature,” explains Justin Chang. And as several of our other panelists note, this category would be much more exciting if France had submitted “Anatomy of a Fall,” another best picture nominee.

1. “The Zone of Interest,” (United Kingdom)

2. “The Teachers’ Lounge,” (Germany)

3. “Society of the Snow,” (Spain)

4. “Perfect Days,” (Japan)

5. “Io Capitano,” (Italy)

Animated feature

“The race will come down to the thrilling box-office smash ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse’ against Hayao Miyazaki’s acclaimed ‘The Boy and the Heron,'” writes Glenn Whipp.

It’s a terrific matchup of classic and high-tech artistry that divided the panel evenly, 3-3. The point system grants a narrow edge to the Japanese master with “Nimona,” “Elemental” and “Robot Dreams,” though not without their supporters, all coming in as long shots.

1. “The Boy and the Heron”

2. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

3. “Nimona”

4. “Elemental”

5. “Robot Dreams”

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.