Snow in Himalayan region, rain in nearby plains this weekend, predicts Met dept

On February 17 rainfall will begin in Jammu and Kashmir, according to the IMD

There is likely to be intense spells of rain and snowfall over the Western Himalayan region between February 17 and 20, heavy showers in the adjoining plains between February 19 and 20, the India Meteorological Department warned on Thursday, predicting the arrival of an active western disturbance.

The prediction comes at a time when rain and snow have been scanty in these regions this winter. Typically, there are two to threespells of western disturbances — these are moisture-bearing winds that originate in the Mediterranean Sea, that bring precipitation to north India and the Himalayan.

This year, there has been only one strong western disturbance episode since January, which has left a north west India with a rain deficiency of 59%.

“On February 17 rainfall will begin in Jammu and Kashmir; over Uttarakhand on February 18; over the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh on February 19 and 20. We are also expecting heavy rain/snow over Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand on February 19 and 20. All conditions are favourable for heavy rain in the higher reaches,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorms, lightning and hail with gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40k/hr, gusting to 50k/hr) are likely over Punjab during February 18 to 20, in Haryana-Chandigarh, West Uttar Pradesh during February 19 to 21 and over Rajasthan on February 19.

A second expert said the turn in weather will involve the interaction of two systems. “We are expecting rain over Delhi too on February 19 and 20. A western disturbance will impact the Western Himalayan region from February 17 and its induced cyclonic circulation will be over north India. Humid winds from the Arabian Sea is expected to bring moisture and a combination of these weather systems will bring rain to Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan, Delhi and west UP in the plains and snowfall in the hills,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.

“Another WD is expected to impact the Western Himalayan region on February 25-26. In February we are seeing several WDs that are bringing rain and snow,” added Palawat.

Minimum temperatures are in the range of 8-12°C over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan. These are normal over many parts of northwest India and above normal over rest parts of north India. The lowest minimum temperature of 5.8°C was reported at Amritsar (Punjab) on Thursday.

Several other parts of the country are recording rains due to other weather interactions. A cyclonic circulation is lying over central parts of Chhattisgarh and a trough runs from North interior Karnataka to this circulation in the lower tropospheric levels. Additionally, on account of the anticyclone over the north Bay of Bengal, moisture is penetrating into east-central and east India from the Bay of Bengal in the lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence, isolated/scattered light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorms, lightning activity in isolated places very likely over Vidarbha, north Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand with isolated hailstorm very likely over north Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and north interior Odisha on Thursday.

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