Bears Mock Draft 3.1 for BearDigest: Justin Fields Hail Mary

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Before he retired prior to the combine, long-time NFL columnist Peter King left us a delightful draft scenario regarding the Bears at quarterback.

It was the Bears keep Justin Fields, or at least trade the top pick, and gather in a total windfall of draft picks.

King offered up the thought Bears GM Ryan Poles could trade No. 1 overall to the Commanders for the second pick overall and also receive Washington’s second-round pick, No. 40, and a first-round pick from 2025.

Then he suggested Poles could just trade down again, much like the Bears did last year when they made the second trade down from No. 9 to No. 10.

In this second trade, King thinks they can send the No. 2 pick to Atlanta for the Falcons’ eighth pick overall, their second-round pick and also a 2025 first-round pick and 2025 second-round pick.

All told, the Bears would wind up with nine picks in the first two rounds of the next two drafts. They simply needed to decide to keep Justin fields at quarterback.

This all sounds like wishful thinking, or a recipe for disaster to those who see Caleb Williams as the future.

So I sought to validate this scenario with the usual means: a mock draft.

The goal was visualizing what this might mean for the Bears in an actual draft through use of a draft simulator, this one from Pro Football Focus.

As expected, the PFF draft simulator would never allow the Commanders to make the first deal. In fact, it wouldn’t allow either trade.

That’s AI for you.

It wasn’t even close. The simulator stated there is only a 15% chance the Commanders would accept this trade agreement from No. 1 to No. 2. Without this trade, there is no second trade.

Draft simulators will allow trades to go through if forced, so for the sake of our educational experiment I pressed a few buttons and rammed this trade through. Suddenly the Bears had gone down to No. 2 in the draft, but they now had the 40th pick—ironically enough, the one they traded to get Montez Sweat—and also a first- and second-rounder in 2025.

Then the simulator was a little more willing to accept the trade down from No. 2 to No. 8 with Atlanta, but only slightly. This trade down was disallowed and given 80% approval, but I forced it into being again and the Bears now had also another second-round pick and a first-round and second-round pick in 2025.

So that’s two trades down that wouldn’t have been allowed by the computer. You have to wonder in real life if it’s even possible, too.

Teams are not just throwing away draft picks to draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

So with those trades made, here’s what the top of a Bears draft would look like in 2024 given King’s trades.

Round 1, No. 8

T Joe Alt, Notre Dame

Officially at 6-foot-8, 315 pounds, he plays with textbook technique and efficiency at left tackle. The Bears might have a starter who’s acceptable in Braxton Jones but they have one who stands out for years if they take Alt. Why a tackle? If the Bears trade down from No. 1 to No. 2 and then to No. 8, the best three wide receivers and best three quarterbacks are gone. What about pass rusher? Well, they do now have picks 8 and 9, so you can have it either way you want.

Round 1, No. 9

Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama

Personally, I’d take Florida State’s Jared Verse over Turner after the combine performance. Turner is better around the edge but in the scheme used by the Bears a more powerful end who can hold his gap is always a better choice as long as he can also rush well around the edge in passing situations. No one really talked about it during the combine, but Verse did a spectacular 31 reps at 225 pounds in the bench press. He did what a defensive tackle or offensive lineman will do. And he ran 4.64 in the 40. On film, he also has a very good understanding of how to play off of his teammates in the pass rush while Turner is more raw in this regard, but definitely talented enough to draft here. The reason it’s Turner on this pick is he’s rated higher on the draft board this computer is using. But either player would work.

Round 2, No. 40 

(From Washington)

C Zach Frazier, West Virginia

No receiver here. The simulator predicts a run on receivers in the draft just before the Bears would use this pick they acquired from the Commanders in the trade down. They need a center and because they miss out on Jackson Powers-Johnson by picking eighth and ninth, they get the next-best center. He was a champion heavyweight wrestler and that’s a good background for any center. Watch for Frazier to display good athleticism for a big man in the final day of draft workouts. With Frazier the Bears might not even need to bring in a veteran bridge center to play until the rookie is ready. He’s one of the top two in the draft at his position.

Round 2, No. 43 

(From Atlanta)

WR Roman Wilson, Michigan

Yes, after they had all of those good picks, this is the best wide receiver they can come up with if they stick to this draft board. You could always reach with the ninth pick and who knows if picking Brian Thomas Jr. then would even be a reach? He ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash and that might be better than LSU teammate Malik Nabers, who didn’t run. As a receiver, though, he doesn’t rate quite at the level of Nabers in the eyes of analysts.

So the Bears have to take a receiver who played in a heavily run-based Michigan attack. He’s not even a X-type receiver like they need but would fit as a slot or Z-receiver at 5-11, 185. Wilson has great speed, though. His 4.39-second 40 exceeded expectation and there’s no questioning his hands.  He’s also an excellent blocker with a feisty attitude, which would have been a good fit in Luke Getsy’s offense. How it rates with Shane Waldron is yet to be determined.

The one player who they could have taken here and was available was the fastest man in the combine, Xavier Worthy. The 4.21-second 40-yard dash is beyond impressive but this is not a track team we’re building. If it was, Texas would have one heck of a 4 by 100-meter relay team. This is football and Worthy is not worthy of a second-round pick based on his own admissions about lacking focus, as well as scouting reports saying the same. The Bears already have their very own Worthy named Velus Jones Jr. He ran 4.31 seconds and  It’s still about understanding coverage, knowing routes and how to run them and getting open, then using your body to make the catch. It’s not a sprint.

Round 3, No. 75

S Kamren Kinchens, Miami

The Bears need Eddie Jackson’s replacement. If you’re waiting until the third round to take Jackson’s replacement, you’re getting a safety who tied for the slowest 40-yard time at Indianapolis (4.65) for his position. In this mock draft it broke this way, anyway. There are several who ran faster and would be available here in this mock but they’re safeties who were so bad on film at playing the position that it didn’t warrant selecting them even if they ran 4.5 seconds in the 40. Kinchens would have the advantage of being able to communicate well with at least one member of the Bears secondary. He was Tyrique Stevenson’s college teammate. He also made 11 interceptions over the last two seasons, which is what playing safety is all about.

The Conclusion

This mock was special purpose, to show what would happen with the Peter King trade suggestions and Justin Fields still at quarterback. So we’ll cut it off at only three rounds. This is what the top of the draft would look like if the Bears moved back to No. 8 and No. 9. Leave the Day 3 stuff to your own imagination and also realize they didn’t draft anyone last year on Day 3 who became a starter, although they got use out of Roschon Johnson, Tyler Scott and Terell Smith.

It’s very easy to see they won’t get a top-three quarterback, won’t get elite receiver talent if they trade down, won’t get the best center, will be able to get the best edge rusher because all are available, and definitely would come away with the draft’s best tackle to protect Fields.

The two conclusions everyone should gather from this are: 1) Even after this draft, the Bears in 2025 would have three first-round draft picks and two second-rounders and that’s pretty staggering. It’s the kind of thing that can set a team up for a decade of success.

Then again, the second conclusion is this is all of this is pure fantasy because the computer wouldn’t allow the trades and that means it’s highly unlikely the Commanders would ever be coughing up so many draft picks to move up one spot.

There are already reports in Washington about how they believe Maye is a better choice than Williams, so the chances would be even less likely they would make a trade of this sort than the 15% the computer says.

Bottom line is what Peter King suggested truly was off the top of his head, like he said it was if anyone was listening. And if you’re a Justin Fields fan and still basing your hopes of the Bears keeping their current QB on being given an offer they can’t refuse, then get real. It’s not happening.

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