Shehbaz Sharif is set to be elected as Pakistan’s new prime minister on Sunday. Reuters File
Amidst the drama underway in Pakistan relating to post-national election developments, many pictures of meetings of leading political figures have appeared in the country’s media. None of them capture the true nature of power in the Islamic Republic, as does one that shows army chief General Asim Munir putting his hand over the head of a young lady, Assistant Superintendent of Police (ASP), Syeda Shehrbano Naqvi, blessing her for the courage she showed in rescuing a young woman hiding from an irate mob in a crowded market in Lahore on February 26.
The young woman was wearing a dress with Arabic writing, which the mob thought were Quranic verses; hence, the mob considered her guilty of blasphemy and wanted to dispense instant justice, obviously by lynching her.
ASP Shehrbano displayed great courage, which needed to be recognised. In any other country, it would have been done by the head of the police force or a political leader. The army chief has done so by recommending her for a medal, and there was nothing stopping the current caretaker Pakistan Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar from meeting Shehrbano. But as the army chiefs consider themselves the real leaders of Pakistan, it was Munir who considered it fit to call her to his office to recognise her valour.
The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) publicly released photographs of Munir blessing the young officer and, in a press release, noted, inter alia, “The COAS lauded ASP Shehrbano for her selfless devotion to duty and professionalism in diffusing a volatile situation. The fearless officer extricated a woman from the difficult milieu of Ichra Bazaar in Lahore on February 26.”
The army was once again seeking to reinforce the message that whatever may be the results of the election, the real protector of Pakistan is the army, and the father figure of the Pakistani people is its chief.
It is important for the army to send out this signal, for it was not able to accomplish its objective of finishing off the former Prime Minister and the founder and leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), Imran Khan, in the national elections.
The army, from behind the scenes, ensured that the Pakistan Election Commission did not allow PTI candidates to contest elections either for the National Assembly or the Provincial Assembly using the party’s ‘cricket bat’ symbol. They could only contest as independents, which they did. To the surprise of many—and one can conjecture that of the generals too—Imran Khan’s independents did remarkably well. They came through as the largest single group in the National Assembly and were able to win the majority in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly.
This was a setback for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) which had secured the army’s backing. More importantly, its leader, Nawaz Sharif, who has thrice been Pakistan’s Prime Minister, wanted to get the office for the fourth time as he returned from political exile in London. It was even more of a setback for the army. However, irrespective of the election result, it could not allow the PTI to come back to power in Islamabad or in the all-important Punjab province.
The results for the National Assembly showed that PTI independents won 93 seats. The PML (N) got 75 seats, while the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) won 54. It was expected that Imran Khan, even though he has been in jail since May last year and has been convicted in a number of cases, would do well in KP. He is a Pathan by origin and enjoys great popularity among his ethnic group. This anticipation was not belied because PTI independents swept KP, and the PML (N) was only able to secure 2 NA seats in the province. The independents gained a majority in the KP assembly. They have been able to form the government in KP, though under the rubric of another political party. This is because women and non-Muslim minority seats are allotted on a proportional basis from party lists only to political parties. Hence, all over Pakistan, under Imran Khan’s orders, PTI independents have ‘merged’ with the Sunni Ittehad Council, which is a political party consisting of some Sunni Barelvi groups. There was simply no way the army could have prevented PTI from forming the government in KP.
The electoral fight that determines Pakistan’s political future has always been in Punjab. With all the manoeuvring of the army, the courts, and the Election Commission, it was expected that PML (N) would be able to virtually wipe out PTI independents in the 141 directly elected seats of the province. It is here that the real surprise came, for while PML (N) did secure 67 seats, the PTI independents won 54 seats. There have been claims that the latter had done better, but election results were manipulated. Be that as it may, what the Punjab results showed was that Imran Khan continues to enjoy a large measure of support. This would naturally worry the generals.
In order to keep the PTI effectively out of power, the only way was for the PML (N) to join hands with the PPP of the Zardari-Bhuttos who were able to hold on to their Sindh bastion, and with their 54 seats and the PML (N)’s 75 seats, they could ensure a government that kept Khan out could be formed.
Both parties, on their own and under Munir’s encouragement, held discussions. It is reported that while Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari was reluctant to join the PML (N), his father, Asif Ali Zardari, was keen to do so. He is a master manipulator. Discussions continued over many days, but eventually the two parties hammered out an agreement under which Nawaz Sharif had to give up his ambition to become PM. This was obviously what the army would have also really wanted. The final agreement provides that Shehbaz Sharif would become PM and that Asif Ali Zardari would become President. Portfolios would be divided between the two parties. Clearly, the army too would be pleased with this decision because it has always enjoyed a good working relationship with Shehbaz Sharif.
In Punjab, the PML(N) was able to easily form the government on its own with Nawaz Sharif’s daughter and political heir Maryam Nawaz as Chief Minister. With Shehbaz Sharif set to become PM, it was impossible for his heir, Hamza Sharif, who is a force to be reckoned with in Punjab, to become CM. Shehbaz Sharif has always been loyal to his elder brother Nawaz, but a rivalry between the cousins can be expected. With Imran Khan continuing to remain popular in Punjab, any cracks in the Sharif family will only aid him. It can be expected that Munir will try over the years to erode Khan’s popularity and also seek to ensure that Hamza does not create trouble for Maryam.
In Sindh, the PPP has formed the government. It attained a majority on its own in the Provincial Assembly and got the overwhelming majority of the National Assembly seats. However, the Mohajir party, the MQM, has held its own in Karachi.
Such is the political bitterness in Pakistan that President Arif Alvi, who has always been openly partisan towards the PTI, initially refused to convene the National Assembly. He finally relented at the last moment, for the new assembly had to meet by February 29. A new speaker was elected after the members took the oath, and elections for the PM are expected to be held on March 3.
The struggle between Munir and Imran Khan is not over. Munir will use every arrow in his quiver to weaken Imran Khan, but it will not be easy, for he has evoked the issue of ‘gairat’—pride—which is so important in a quasi-fuedal society as Pakistan continues to be. As for the new government, its priority would be to put the economy back on the rails. That cannot be a simple job, especially because of Pakistan’s continuing irrational animosity towards India.
The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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