RUSSIA-POLITICS-PUTIN
As tensions escalate between Russia and NATO, concerns mount over the possibility of further Russian aggression beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Irina Tsukerman, a US national security lawyer and geopolitical analyst, has offered insights into the potential targets of Russian invasion, highlighting the vulnerability of certain Baltic countries.
“Unlike Putin’s nuclear threats, the threat of conventional attacks is relatively high and becomes higher as Russia advances further into Ukraine”, she told the Daily Express US.
“I don’t think their first attack would be Poland, their military is fairly large. It would likely be one of the smaller Baltic countries, and there would have to be a small-scale attack made to look like a terrorist attack or something to justify the invasion into a border territory.”
The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently sounded WW3 alarm bells, cautioning that Europe stands on the precipice of a “pre-war era”.
LITHUANIA-BELARUS-BORDER-MIGRATION-DIPLOMACY
“Lithuania is the most vulnerable and likely to get attacked”, Tsuckerman revealed, “mainly because it has a strategic area near Belarus. There is a border area between Belarus, Lithuania and Poland that Russia could use as a point of invasion.”
As Russia has already conducted military exercises in the area, Tsukerman suggests Putin could simply expand these into an attack. Additionally, the region has long been considered a potential flashpoint between NATO and Russia, so taking control of it would send a strong message, according to her.
“Russia’s strategy would likely be trying to edge a small provocation, like a small terrorist attack, blame it on Lithuania, and therefore justify a physical defence”, she added.
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These concerns of a potential Baltic invasion are echoed by US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith, who acknowledged earlier this week the pre-eminent threat posed by Russia and emphasizes NATO’s preparations for all contingencies.
While there is no immediate indication of a Russian invasion of NATO territory, Smith said that “NATO is not sitting on its hands” and “It’s not waiting for any possible contingency. Instead, it’s preparing for all contingencies.”
Despite these warnings, Smith clarified that the US does not perceive an imminent Russian threat to NATO. However, concerns persist among NATO’s eastern members, prompting reassurances from Smith regarding the alliance’s commitment to their defence.
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