Tropical cyclone fears grow as it's revealed Australia is on track for fourth 'La Nina' event in five years despite earlier predictions of a long, hot, dry spell

Cyclone Kirrily could develop by Monday La Nina likely to return this year READ MORE: Why is it raining during El Nino?

Despite forecasts of a sweltering summer with relentless sun, Aussies on the east coast have been told to prepare for another cyclone which could form within days – as the wetter La Nina weather system is predicted to persist throughout this year.

The Bureau of Meteorology sent a warning out for coastal Queenslanders to prepare for a cyclone off the coast that might form by Monday.

There is a 75 per cent chance tropical low 05U, currently sitting over the Coral Sea, will become the state’s latest cyclone even though El Nino remains active in the Pacific Ocean.

Recent weather cycles have been frustrating the country, which had its wettest spell in a decade over the last three years while at the same time recording a record dry August-to-October in 2023.

From mid-2020 to early 2023, La Nina was governing the weather, creating 17 per cent more rainfall than usual – and experts are expecting it to take hold again soon.

Despite dire warnings of an excruciatingly hot summer, heavy rainfall has been plaguing Australians and Queenslanders have been told to prepare for another cyclone

There is a 75 per cent chance tropical low 05U, currently sitting over the Coral Sea, will form into a cyclone by Monday

The developing cyclone, which will be named Kirrily, is expected to track south between Sunday and Tuesday, pushing it towards Queensland’s coast.

Communities have been urged to track the tropical low and stay informed about any developments with the BoM predicting ‘multiple scenarios’ yielding ‘severe impacts’.

Although it is unclear how intense the storm could become, Community Information Officer Morgan Pumpa said it was important to remain vigilant.

Ms Pumpa also pointed towards a large monsoon trough sitting over the northern tropics and extending over the northern breadth of the state and the Coral Sea.

It could persist for days and bring with it heavy rainfall, storms, localised flooding and abnormally high tides in the Gulf and Torres Strait. 

‘People need to be alert not only in the north, but as well in the south, with those two systems bringing the chance of some heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding,’ Ms Pumpa told the Courier Mail.

The BoM is expecting sea levels to exceed the highest tide of the year and a flood watch is in effect for the Cape York Peninsula and parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria, where the potential tropical cyclone is forecast to make impact.

Ms Pumpa added that the two events are not likely to overlap however, since 05U will still be out at sea as the monsoon begins to ease at the beginning of next week.

Flood warnings are also current for the Tully and Murray Rivers, Herbert River, Paroo River, Barcoo River, Bulloo River, Diamantina River, and Warrill Creek catchments.

Communities have been urged to track the tropical low and stay informed about any developments with the BoM predicting ‘multiple scenarios’ yielding ‘severe impacts’

A large monsoon trough is also sitting over the northern tropics which could persist for days and bring with it heavy rainfall, storms, localised flooding and abnormally high tides

Australia’s weather patterns are heavily dependent on what is going on in the Pacific Ocean.

The last four years have been notorious for its sustained lack of neutral conditions, which has seen three La Nina events before the current El Nino period.

Historically, neutral conditions would have been the norm during half of that time with the remaining two quarters occupied by alternating La Nina and El Nino.

This era of unpredictability is not expected to end soon as it seems increasingly likely that La Nina could return in full effect by the end of 2024. 

While February is expected to return to drier than usual weather, near normal rainfall will pick back up in autumn before La Nina creeps back into the picture from winter to summer.

El Nino and El Nina weather events are expected to last between six months and three years but should the latter return, its tenure will have lasted almost five years. 

Sky News Meteorologist, Rob Sharpe, gave a 65 per cent chance of La Nina re-developing this year, a 30 per cent chance of neutral conditions and only a 5 per cent chance of back-to-back El Ninos. 

‘Even if La Nina doesn’t develop… warm seas east of Australia tips the scales in favour of wet weather for eastern Australia,’ Mr Sharpe wrote.

‘Therefore, it is wise to plan for a wet end to 2024 and start of 2025.’