Indonesia election quick tallies indicate Prabowo headed for first round win

A woman holds her ink-stained finger after casting her vote in South Tangerang, on the outskirts of Jakarta, Indonesia, February 14, 2024. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana

By Stefanno Sulaiman and Fransiska Nangoy

JAKARTA (Reuters) -Unofficial tallies in Indonesia’s presidential election on Wednesday showed Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto taking a commanding lead that could see him win in a single round if sustained.

Prabowo had about 58% of votes according to four pollsters, based on ballots counted in a sample of voting stations nationwide. The number of votes they had tallied ranged from about 52% to 67% as of 0912 GMT.

Electoral officers prepare ballot boxes at a flooded general election polling station in Duri Kepa, Kebon Jeruk, Jakarta, Indonesia February 14, 2024. Antara Foto/Sulthony Hasanuddin via REUTERS

Rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo had about 25% and 17% respectively, according to the independent pollsters that were conducting “quick counts” at the close of voting.

Counts by reputable outlets have proven to be accurate in previous elections. An official result is not expected until several weeks after the vote.

The pattern could signal a first round win for Prabowo. To win in a single round, a candidate needs more than 50% of votes cast and 20% of the ballot in half of the country’s provinces.

A woman votes at a polling station during the general election in Bogor, West Java, Indonesia, February 14, 2024. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held in June.

The contest pits popular former governors Ganjar and Anies against the pre-election frontrunner Prabowo, a former special forces commander feared in the 1990s as a top lieutenant of Indonesia’s late strongman ruler Suharto.

“Alhamdulillah (Praise be to God), we hope the election can go in one round,” said Nusron Wahid, secretary of Prabowo’s campaigning team, commenting on the latest quick counts.

The world’s biggest single-day election has included nearly 259,000 candidates vying for 20,600 posts across the archipelago of 17,000 islands, but the focus has been firmly on the race to replace President Joko Widodo, whose influence could determine who takes the helm of the world’s third-largest democracy.

Electoral workers dressed as hantus (ghosts) wait for voters at a general election polling booth in Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia, February 14, 2024. The electoral workers donned the costumes as a creative effort to increase voter participation. Antara Foto/Didik Suhartono via REUTERS

The early lead will be a big boost for Prabowo, who has undergone an image rebrand and is contesting his third successive election after twice losing out to the hugely popular Widodo, who cannot run again because of term limits.

Indigenous Baduy people queue to cast their ballots at a general election polling station in Kenekes village, Lebak, Banten, Indonesia February 14, 2024. Antara Foto/Muhammad Bagus Khoirunas via REUTERS

Jokowi, as the incumbent is known, is tacitly backing and betting on his former rival as a continuity candidate to preserve his legacy, including a role for his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as Prabowo’s running mate.

Two surveys issued last week gave Prabowo just over 50% support, with Anies and Ganjar 27 and 31 points adrift, respectively, though the quick counts point to a stronger lead.

“This is an emphatic result that diminishes prospects for legal challenges and will also provide the Widodo-Prabowo alliance with an element of affirmation from the public for decision-making in the months ahead,” said political analyst Kevin O’Rourke.

Nonetheless, he added “concerns exist about the prospect of further incursions on democratic norms”.

President Joko Widodo and First Lady Iriana cast their ballots at a polling station during the general election in Jakarta, Indonesia February 14, 2024. Antara Foto/Muhammad Adimaja via REUTERS

‘HONEST AND FAIR’

Former Jakarta governor Anies and ex-Central Java governor Ganjar had been trying to woo undecided voters to try to force a runoff in June.

“I want to underline that we want honest and fair elections so that it becomes peaceful,” Anies said at a polling station.

Deadly riots broke out after the 2019 election, when Prabowo had initially contested Jokowi’s victory.

Vice President candidate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is the eldest son of Indonesian President Joko Widodo and current Mayor of Surakarta, along with his wife Selvi Ananda, vote during the general election, in Surakarta, Central Java province, Indonesia, February 14, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan

Some 200,000 security personnel are on guard.

“So far, the situation is safe, under control,” said National Police Chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo.

Anies has campaigned on promises of change and preventing a backsliding in the democratic reforms achieved in the 25 years since the end of Suharto’s authoritarian, kleptocratic rule.

Ganjar hails from the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle, of which Jokowi is ostensibly a member, and has campaigned largely on continuing the president’s policies, but crucially lacks his endorsement.

Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto waves at a polling station during the general election in Bogor, West Java, Indonesia, February 14, 2024. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

Before voting, he also called for a clean election so that candidates could accept the result.

Hasto Kristiyanto, a senior politician in his campaign team said there had been many reports of alleged cheating in Central Java and East Java and some intimidation.

Prabowo said on Wednesday he hoped the “voting process goes well”.

In later comments, made as he was treading water in a swimming pool in his private residence near Jakarta, the wealthy 72-year-old businessman told reporters he wanted to defend truth, eliminate corruption and ensure no one in Indonesia went hungry.

Presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo speaks to the media before leaving for a polling centre during the general election in Semarang, Central Java, February 14, 2024. Antara Foto/Makna Zaezar via REUTERS

“I want there to be no 70-year-old people still driving rickshaws. That’s my wish,” he said.

(Reporting by Gayatri Suroyo, Fransiska Nangoy, Bernadette Chrsistina Munthe, Stanley Widianto, Ananda Teresia; Writing by Martin Petty and Ed Davies; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

A security officer stands near a board showing the presidential and legislative candidates at a polling station during general elections, in Surakarta, Central Java province, Indonesia, February 14, 2024. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan

Presidential candidate Anies Baswedan gestures next to his family on the day of the general election in Jakarta, Indonesia, February 14, 2024. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana