India Monsoon Prediction 2024: 'Rains likely to be...' - IMD's 1st long-range southwest monsoon forecast

india monsoon prediction 2024: ‘rains likely to be…’ – imd’s 1st long-range southwest monsoon forecast

IMD 2024 Prediction: India is going to witness above-normal monsoon this season as the cumulative rainfall is estimated to touch around 106 per cent of long-period average of 87 cm, according to India Meteorological Department in its April 2024 prediction.

In the press release, IMD said that ‘the monsoon seasonal rainfall during June to September is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%’. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.’

IMD said that moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region.

“The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to weaken

further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season,” IMD said in the press release.

Note that IMD would issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May, 2024.

IMD prediction history

IMD has been issued the operational long-range forecast (LRF) for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June-September) rainfall averaged over the country as a whole in two stages since 2003.

The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage updated forecast is issued by the end of May.

The second stage forecast issued around end of May consists of update for the seasonal rainfall forecast issued in April along with the probabilistic forecasts for the seasonal rainfall over the four homogenous regions of India (northwest India, central India, south Peninsula and northeast India) and monsoon core zone (MCZ).