Steve Eisman Says Trump Election Win Is 'Inevitable'

Stocks delivering their best three day rally since November. Steve Eisman of Neuberger Berman saying he’s long oriented on the US market focusing on companies like Apple that are positioning for the 2nd wave of AI and he has a ton to say about US politics, which is rare these days. Steve is with us around the table. Steve, good morning to you. Good morning. I’m going to ask you then first question, who wins? So caveat first, OK. I’m not speaking for Neuberger Berman, I’m speaking just for myself. Don’t want to get into trouble. And what I’m about to say is just pure political analysis. And the analogy I’ll draw is to the financial crisis. You know, in August of 2007, the subprime paper market collapsed. And at that point, when you look back on it, the financial crisis was baked. Everything else was completely inevitable. So I think that it is completely inevitable at this point that Donald Trump will win every single swing state and will get elected. And the reason I I think this way will unfold is part one of the story is that the protesters in all the universities are becoming the face of the Democratic Party. But that’s not 100% at this point. But what’s going to solidify it is in August at the Democratic convention, which is in Chicago, ironically, you’ll see all these protesters again. And a lot of them will be screaming and and yelling things like not just death to Israel, but death to America because they can’t help themselves. And the country will be appalled. And that’ll be it. It’ll be over. Let’s say you’re right, crystal ball, dead on. Next question is what do I do with that information and when do I put the trades on and what are the trades? How do you sort of, I would say you do largely nothing because I don’t think that whether Trump wins or Biden wins has any real impact on the economy at all. You know, there’ll be things that people will, will want to trade, which I’m not going to talk about because I haven’t put on those trades yet because it’s too because because it’s too early. But there’ll be things to do, but that’ll just be short term trades. Can I jump in? That’s what I’m interested in. You said it’s too early. When is the right time to really think about expressing these as trades? Oh, I think when in in August, when at the convention, when this one, when I said happens, happens, everybody will realize that that’s the case. So you said that it doesn’t really matter who gets elected. Yes, that’s fascinating to me because some people are saying that Donald Trump would put on pretty significant tariffs, particularly to China, and that this would increase inflation sort of de facto in the United States. I see you rolling your eyes. You can respond in a second and then at the same time, you’re going to have, you know, the tax cuts reinstated. Cats and dogs will be lying together and it’ll be end of the world and doom gloom and whatever, you know, lying together, I don’t know, could be zoom gloom depending on your view. But what do you make of this? Why do you discount this? I mean, do I think that Donald Trump would increase tariffs to China? Sure. Do I think that would have a massive inflationary impact on the United States? I think that’s ridiculous. So you know, on the margin would it impact, you know, for example, I’ll give you a company, First Solar. So First Solar sells solar panels to utilities. Now there are already massive tariffs that are helping them. Now could Trump increase the tariffs or make them longer so that stock would do better? Could be. But you know, the price of T-shirts going to go up. Is the price of food going to go up? No, I mean, you have to remember that the United States is, is of all the developed world. the United States is the most insular economy of any of any developed world. So the fact that tariffs will go on in China, big deal.