Here's what to watch this weekend

One of my favorite recurring bits on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast is quote Dr. Ian Malcolm from Jurassic Park when talking about teams that have playing time crunches: “Life, uh, finds a way.”

Usually that means that injuries, underperformance, or some other unforeseeable-but-predictable event will open things up more than we expect – as we saw with the Reds going from a totally crowded roster to just enough players for just enough spots like they have now.

But, the raptors are checking the fences for weak spots, too. Sometimes, you can’t hold back a monstrous, terrifying force but for so long. That’s the other way a playing time crunch can resolve itself, and we might be seeing that in Baltimore with Colton Cowser.

Cowser was the big standout from Thursday’s action, crushing a pair of homers en route to a 3-for-5, four-RBI game. He had four hard-hit balls in this one, and now has 10 RBI while starting the past three games for the Orioles. He had started just two of the first nine games for the Orioles, but after going 6 for 13 with four extra-base hits during the series against the Red Sox, it might be impossible for the Orioles to put the toothpaste back in the tube – we’ve moved on from a saurian metaphor to a dental one, sorry.

I don’t know if Cowser is going to keep playing everyday for the Orioles, but I do think you probably need to add the former first-round pick everywhere he’s available, just in case. He has 30-homer, 10-steal upside if he does play everyday, and obviously Baltimore is a pretty tremendous lineup to be a part of – hence why it’s taken him so long to break into it.

I’ll also be looking to add Blue Jays pitcher Yariel Rodriguez, who is expected to join the team this weekend. I don’t know what role he’s going to fill, but I think there’s at least a chance they turn Bowden Francis’ spot in the rotation over to Rodriguez, who struck out 10 in 6.1 innings across two starts at Triple-A. He’s not fully stretched out, having thrown just 102 pitches across those two starts, and he hasn’t started full time since 2019-20 when he was pitching in Cuba, as he was mostly a full-time closer when he pitched in Japan.

But he showed a four-pitch arsenal in Triple-A and had 13 swinging strikes on 47 pitches in his most recent outing, so I’m excited to see what he looks like against major-leaguers. I don’t expect him to take the league by storm the way Garrett Crochet and Jared Jones have done, but he’s an intriguing, unproven arm who could end up being a big priority on the wire if he impresses. If you have a roster spot to play with and want to shoot for some upside, consider a flier on Rodriguez.

Those are your two waiver-wire targets for today, because there were just five games Thursday, so there isn’t a ton to talk about from those games. In the rest of today’s newsletters, I do have some thoughts on the news and standout performances from yesterday’s action, of course, but we’re also turning our attention ahead to this weekend’s games, looking at 18 pitchers on the schedule who have something to prove to Fantasy players. Whether that’s just proving that you don’t need to sit them, that you don’t need to drop them, or that, maybe, you need to pick them up, they’ve all got something on the line this weekend.

Here’s you’re weekend viewing guide:

What to watch this weekend

Mar 31, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty (9) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Getty Images

Just give us a reason to be optimistic …

Max Fried, Braves @MIA, Friday – He’s been dreadful in both of his starts so far, with 10 earned runs allowed in five innings of work. I haven’t lost faith in Fried, but I’m going to start to if he doesn’t show us something.

Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks vs. STL, Friday – Pfaadt opened the season with a solid start, and he does have 13 strikeouts to just one walk in 10.2 innings, which is nice. Still, if he gives up a bunch of hard contact to a struggling Cardinals lineup, it might be time to give up.

Triston McKenzie, Guardians vs. NYY, Saturday – McKenzie has six walks to four strikeouts in the early going, with just 12 swinging strikes in nine innings of work. I don’t want to give up on him, given how good he was in 2023, but if he struggles again, it might be time to drop him.

Gavin Stone, Dodgers vs. SD, Saturday – Stone hasn’t been nearly as bad as he was last season, and the 27% strikeout rate is especially promising. However, he was such a disaster last season that I’m not sure how much of the benefit of the doubt he deserves at this point. I’d be more likely to hold him through another bad start than I am McKenzie, but he’s gotta show us something after getting through just three innings last time around.

Brayan Bello, Red Sox vs. LAA, Sunday – I kind of think Bello might be a bit of a buy-low candidate, because while he has just 11 strikeouts in 15.1 innings so far, he does have a very strong whiff rate with both his changeup and slider. If that starts to turn into strikeouts, he could really take off with how he keeps the ball in the yard. I’d love to see that from him this weekend.

DL Hall, Brewers @BAL, Saturday – I expected a velocity dip as Hall returned to a full-time starting role, but his 92.4 mph fastball velocity so far is downright pedestrian, as his 12.2% whiff rate. It’d be one thing if he was still getting strikeouts or was limiting walks, but neither has been a strong suit. He might be pitching for his spot on Fantasy rosters this weekend, in a revenge game against the Orioles, a tough spot to be in.

Still worth rostering?

Sean Manaea, Mets vs. KC, Saturday (81%) – Manaea is off to a terrific start, with one earned run in 11 innings. And, with increased sweeper usage and a new cutter, it might be for real. But, given his lengthy and pretty underwhelming track record, it definitely won’t take much for Fantasy players to lose interest.

Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies vs. PIT, Friday (78%) – Sanchez’s breakout last season was fueled by a big step forward in control, but he walked three with just one strikeout in his second outing, a big step forward. I’m not ready to drop him, necessarily, but a repeat of his first outing, where he struck out eight with one walk would be really welcome.

Jack Flaherty, Tigers vs. MIN, Sunday (78%) – Back in spring, Flaherty was throwing harder than he had since 2019, when he was a Cy Young contender. But he hasn’t been able to sustain that, with his velocity through two starts only 0.3 mph up from last season. And that 5.25 ERA is even more ugly when you realize his two starts so far have come against the White Sox (good start) and Athletics (terrible start). He needs a good one against a very beatable Twins lineup.

Luis Severino, Mets vs. KC, Friday (73%) – The thing I need to see from Severino in this start more than anything is an effective slider. He’s thrown it just 12.3% of the time so far and has a paltry 22.2% whiff rate with it. That was once an elite pitch, and I just don’t see how he can succeed consistently without it. He certainly didn’t last season.

Mackenzie Gore, Nationals @OAK, Saturday (71%) – The results don’t look much different this year than they did last, but as I’ve written already this week, I think there’s a lot of interesting stuff going on under the hood with Gore. Let’s hope he can ride that improved fastball and changeup to his first quality start of the season after falling short in his first two outings.

Spencer Turnbull, Phillies vs. PIT, Saturday (59%) – Turnbull has a new sweeper, and he’s using it 33% of the time to great effect in the early going. I don’t really buy his hot start, but it’ll grow increasingly hard to write it off with another good performance.

Time to buy in?

Javier Assad, Cubs @SEA, Sunday (47%) – The Cubs are going to have some decisions to make with their rotation when Justin Steele (hamstring) and Jameson Taillon (back) are ready to come back, and Assad might be pitching himself into their long-term plans. He’s kind of doing that kitchen-sink thing in the early going without one go-to whiff pitch, but if he puts up a third straight good start, it’s going to be hard to ignore him even in the leagues where his SPaRP eligibility doesn’t give him extra appeal.

Andrew Abbott, Reds @CHW, Saturday (45%) – With Nick Lodolo back from the IL this weekend, Abbott has added pressure to pitch effectively. He isn’t getting the strikeouts he did last season, with his curveball and sweeper both sporting whiff rates below 15% so far. Given his flyball tendencies, he probably needs to be closer to a 30% strikeout rate than a 20% one to be successful, and his current mark is at just 17.8% through two starts.

Max Meyer, Marlins vs. ATL, Saturday (43%) – Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett are on the verge of returning from their shoulder injuries, the Marlins are about to have some decisions to make with their rotation. I don’t know if those will be particularly difficult decisions, but with Meyer likely facing some kind of innings limit after missing last season coming back from Tommy John surgery, he might need to force the Marlins to keep him in the rotation – which means he probably needs to find a way to get strikeouts with a pitch other than his slider, which has accounted for six of his seven through two starts.

Jordan Wicks, Cubs @SEA, Friday (37%) – Wicks is garnering a miss on 37% of swings against his four-seamer so far, which is especially impressive since the pitch only comes in at 92.6 mph. That’s helping fuel his massive strikeout rate through two starts, and if he can keep that up, it’s going to be tough to keep him out of the rotation.

Ryan Feltner, Rockies @TOR, Friday (5%) – Alright, so I don’t really believe in Feltner in any real way, especially since he pitches half his games in Coors Field. But he did just have a 10-strikeout performance against the Rays at home, and I think we have to take notice of that kind of performance. He has the eighth-highest swinging strike rate in baseball right now, including the fourth-lowest in-zone contact rate among starters. If he does anything like his last outing again, we’re going to have to at least consider him as a viable Fantasy option away from Coors.

Marco Gonzales, Pirates @PHI, Saturday (5%) – It’s been a pretty long time since Gonzales was Fantasy relevant, but let’s not forget that four-year stretch from 2018 through 2021 when he had a 3.88 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and was very useful for Fantasy. He’s throwing his fastball around 1.5 mph harder right now than he did last season and focusing more on his cutter, which has led to pretty solid results in the early going. I’m not expecting that to continue, but if it does, we’ll have to take him a bit more seriously as a streamer.

News and Notes

Rafael Devers was absent from Thursday’s lineup due to left shoulder soreness and is unlikely for Friday, too. This is something that first popped during the first series of the season, and might explain Devers’ slow start, so hopefully some time off helps him get right.

Justin Verlander remains scheduled for his second minor league rehab start this weekend. It’s not clear how many more starts he’s likely to need before he is activated, but Verlander remains worth stashing.

Lars Nootbaar will be activated from the IL to make his season debut Friday. The biggest question here is what the Cardinals want to do in center field, where Victor Scott has really struggled with the bat. Nootbaar can handle center field well enough, but he’s definitely a step back from Scott, especially coming off the injury.

Nathaniel Lowe will begin a minor-league rehab assignment on Friday at Double-A. He’s been out with an oblique injury since the spring, and is worth adding in some of the 46% of CBS Fantasy leagues where he is available.

Brandon Lowe has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 right oblique strain. He’ll be placed on the IL Friday, and will likely miss at least a couple of weeks.

Vaughn Grissom will start a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Friday. He could be back from his groin injury in a couple of weeks and is definitely worth adding if available.

Brent Rooker was placed on the IL with a costochondral cartilage injury. The A’s started Seth Brown, JJ Bleday, Lawrence Butler in the outfield with Tyler Nevin at first base and Ryan Noda at DH. For what it’s worth, Esteury Ruiz is playing well in Triple-A and could be back soon.

Chase Silseth, who was placed on the IL with an elbow injury, said he expects to return in about three weeks.

Taj Bradley threw a bullpen session recently but isn’t expected to return until May. He’s on the IL with a pectoral injury.

Taijuan Walker made a rehab start at Single-A Thursday. He allowed two runs over four innings, and will likely need at least a few more turns through the rotation before he’s ready to return. When he is, the Phillies will have a tough decision to make, given how well Spencer Turnbull has pitched in his absence.

John Means made a rehab start at Triple-A Thursday. He allowed two runs over three innings in his third rehab outing as he works his way back from his elbow injury. Kyle Bradish, working his way back from his own elbow injury, had his scheduled rehab start Thursday derailed by rain, so he threw a bullpen session instead. Means is a couple weeks ahead of Bradish, who won’t have to be activated from the IL for 30 days after his first rehab outing.

Thursday’s standouts 

Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles @BOS: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – I’m not sure I’ve actually written about Rodriguez yet since the season started, but don’t mistake that for a lack of interest or enthusiasm. It’s just that, well, I expected him to be really good, and he’s been really good in the ways I expected him to be. He got multiple whiffs with all five of his pitches Thursday despite his velocity being down across the board – 1.7 mph on his four-seamer, most notably, which might explain why he threw his sinker a season-high 8 times. Rodriguez’s velocity has been down a tick in the early going this season and it hasn’t limited his effectiveness yet, so I’m not too concerned there.

Jared Jones, Pirates @PHI: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – I mean, if this is what the bad starts are going to look like … I don’t want to overreact to three really good starts, but Jones kind of looks like Spencer Strider right now, riding a mostly two-pitch mix to tons of strikeouts and whiffs, thanks to a dominant fastball/slider combination. The most impressive thing might actually be the two walks in 18 innings, because control was supposed to be Jones’ biggest liability. I’ve already moved Jones into my top-36 at starting pitcher, and I genuinely think he has top-12 upside based on what he’s shown so far.

Hunter Brown, Astros @KC: 0.2 IP, 11 H, 9 ER, 1 BB, 0 K – Oh boy. This was such a disastrous start for Brown that I actually don’t think you can or should really take much from it. It’s just one of those days, you know? On the other hand, Brown had just eight strikeouts to six walks while pitching seven innings in his first two starts, and after watching him fall apart in the second half of last season, I definitely wouldn’t blame you for spite-dropping him. It’s not like there’s anything in his profile I can point you to as a reason not to drop him.

Ranger Suarez, Phillies vs. PIT: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Suarez lowered his ERA for the season to 2.65 through three starts, with 19 strikeouts to just three walks in 17 innings of work. Suarez is back to featuring his sinker the way he did in 2022, when he had a 3.65 ERA, though his velocity is down several mph from that point, so I’m not sure how much I buy this. Still, he’s been good enough through three starts that I don’t mind rolling him out there in a home start against the Rockies next week.

Jon Gray, Rangers vs. OAK: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Gray will have starts like this where he looks impressive, but he usually doesn’t sustain it for longer than a few starts. Given the cake matchup and the fact that his velocity continues to be down, I don’t see much reason to be excited about this performance.

JP Sears, Athletics @TEX: 6.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – This was a pretty great performance against what is supposed to be one of the toughest matchups in the league, but I have a hard time getting even moderately excited about the potential of starting Sears at this point. He has a decent matchup on the way next week against the Cardinals at home, but I’d have to be pretty desperate to want to use him.

Mason Miller, SP(/RP), Athletics – Before the season, I said Miller has a chance to be one of the best relievers in baseball, and honestly, I think he might already be there. He’s throwing flames out of the bullpen, averaging 102.3 mph with his four-seamer Thursday, and he struck out two en route to his second save. You’re probably not going to get huge save totals from Miller this season, but his 12 strikeouts in seven innings of work are, I think, indicative of the upside here. As long as he stays healthy, my expectations are sky-high for Miller, even if he only saves 25 games.

Bobby Witt, SS, Royals – Witt went 4 for 5 with a pair of homers Thursday, giving him four for the season, and he’s just absolutely crushing the ball right now. His average exit velocity is up to 99.4 mph, while 71% of his batted balls have been hit at least 95 mph so far. He broke out in a big way in the second half of last season, and he’s just kept rolling right along in the early going this season.

Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals – Please, stop panicking after a dozen bad games. A few days ago, Pasquantino was a source of much consternation in Fantasy circles, but now he’s had consecutive three-hit games with eight combined RBI. There’s still some lingering concern here about whether Pasquantino can live up to expectations after last season’s shoulder surgery, but I hope this has talked some of you out of dropping him. That should never have been a consideration.

Yainer Diaz, C, Astros – Speaking of rolling right along, Diaz has picked up where he left off in 2023, hitting .333/.382/.549 through his first 13 games. His quality of contact metrics don’t necessarily match up with what he’s done so far,  but he also had three hard-hit balls Thursday as part of his 2-for-5 showing, including a 107.3 mph homer, so I can’t say I’m actually concerned about that.

Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers – There wasn’t a player who had more hype around him this spring than Langford, who forced his way into the Rangers lineup with a massive spring. But after an 0-for-4 performance Thursday against the A’s, he’s hitting just .240/.291/.300. And, it’s not like it’s just been bad luck – he doesn’t have a homer yet, and has only had one batted ball that would have left the yard in even one park in the majors so far. His .281 wOBA is actually slightly ahead of his .273 xwOBA, because he just isn’t hitting the ball well right now. I don’t actually have much concern that Langford’s struggles will last much longer than this, but it’s just a reminder that even the most seemingly can’t-miss rookies often need an adjustment period.

Starling Marte, OF, Mets – Marte is starting to get going, as he went 2 for 5 with his third steal of the season Thursday. He’s hitting just .271 with only two extra-base hits, but he’s hitting the ball hard (90.5 mph average exit velocity), making plenty of contact, and has all three of his steals in the past five games. He might just have something left in the tank.