Blaming Israel for the military strike (Israel hasn’t claimed responsibility for it), Iran vowed revenge, sparking fears of a wider regional conflict that could further destabilise the global economy.
Sure enough, Iran retaliated with a mix of drone and missile attacks on the night of April 13. The retaliation was an unprecedented development as this was the first time that Iran directly attacked Israel from its soil. Tehran’s actions against its archenemy so far were limited to funding militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and taking out Israeli assets through proxies in what came to be known as the Iran-Israel shadow war.
The developments of the past couple of weeks have left both countries teetering on the brink of a full-fledged war, even as major global capitals, including Washington, DC, urge restraint.
The one silver lining, however, has been that Israel was able to intercept ‘99%’ of the Iranian projectiles with its fabled multi-layered defence systems and with a little help from the US, which acts as a bulwark for Israel against regional hostilities. According to Israel’s ambassador to India, Naor Gilon, there was only one casualty. (Read more on Israel’s Iron Dome system here)
How will Israel respond?
There has been speculation about Israel striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, but it might have to wait, given the world has little appetite left for another full-blown war. More importantly, the US, Israel’s principal backer, has said it won’t participate in any military response by Israel. (Read why US and Israel want to avoid a direct military attack on Israel here)
The international community is still grappling with the consequences of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Israel’s own actions in Gaza. Entering into a retributive and uncontrollable cycle of state violence with Iran may lead to another PR disaster for Israel. Israel will remember how the global mood changed because of some of its actions in Gaza, even though these were provoked by a despicable act of Hamas terrorism on October 7, 2023.
The Israeli government will also know that the foiled Iranian strikes only reaffirmed the reputation of Israel’s vastly superior military capabilities which was dented by the October 7 attacks.
The US and others are working to convince Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu that even if Israel retaliates under pressure from hardliners, the action is measured. Significantly, even though the Iranian projectiles failed to hit any of their intended targets, Tehran has declared its retaliatory action has ended and the matter can be now “deemed concluded”. The Iranian statement seemed designed to avoid any further escalation and Tehran will hope for an acknowledgement by both Israel and the US.
While Israel is still said to be weighing its options, it has so far acted with responsibility by resorting to diplomacy. Its UN envoy demanded before a meeting of the UN Security Council on Sunday (April 14) that “crippling sanctions” be reimposed on Iran and that IRGC be declared a terrorist organisation.
Significantly for Israel, the G7 has unequivocally condemned Iran’s actions and demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks, while also asserting they will respond to “destabilising initiatives”.
Can India help?
India’s first and immediate priority is to ensure quick release of the 17 Indian crew members onboard a cargo vessel while sails under the Portuguese flag, MSC Aries, that was seized by the IRGC off the coast of UAE for its links with Israel. Foreign minister S Jaishankar spoke to his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Sunday and the latter is said to have assured him that Iran will soon allow Indian diplomats in Tehran to meet the crew members.
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Other than that, India can definitely play a role in defusing tensions as it has strong ties with both Israel and Iran, although some would say India’s policy towards the region is skewed now more in favour of Israel, one of India’s foremost defence and security partners.
India was not among the first to call for a ceasefire in Gaza last year and finally came around to supporting it only in the form of a vote in December in favour of a United Nation General Assembly (UNGA) resolution that sought a humanitarian ceasefire.
However, despite the complexities generated by the sanctions on Iran, India has continued to maintain a healthy relationship with Tehran and in a meeting with Iran President Ebrahim Raisi last year, PM Narendra Modi underlined the significance of the partnership in trade and investment, connectivity, energy and counter-terrorism. They also have a common interest in ensuring Afghanistan is not used for promoting terrorism.
Jaishankar has already spoken to his Iran and Israel counterparts about the need for restraint. Modi had spoken to both Raisi and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu last year about the need for an early and peaceful resolution of the Gaza conflict.
If the current Iran-Israel situation worsens, and given India’s own extensive interests in the region, it perhaps won’t be out of place for Modi to dial both again and tell them what he famously told Vladimir Putin in 2022: that this is not the era of war (Watch below).
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Implications for India
The consequences for India of a broader regional conflict will perhaps be far greater than those of the war in Ukraine, given its wide-ranging interests from energy to connectivity and, not least, the responsibility of ensuring the safety and security of the almost 9-million strong Indian expatriate community in the Gulf.
The Indians living in the region are together the largest source of remittances for India.
India’s import of discounted Russian oil has meant a decrease in the Gulf’s share of Indian energy imports but the region still remains one of the most reliable and largest sources of oil and gas for the country.
For India, another serious concern would be the likely impact on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, a transcontinental initiative for economic growth through better connectivity and integration which was launched in India but has been delayed by the Israel-Hamas conflict. Actions that destabilise the region further augur ill for the future of the project that found its way even into the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) election manifesto.
As a country which claims to speak for the Global South, India will also be wary of the consequences of another war for the developing world which has had to bear the brunt of the Ukraine war and disruption in global supply chains. There’s also the fear of airfares soaring as airlines explore new flight paths to avoid airspace that could potentially pose a risk.
Lead image: Varun Vashishtha/AI