Labour yet to convince 40% of target voters, new poll suggests

Labour is yet to win over around 40 per cent of key target voters who remain undecided or disillusioned, despite leading with a wide margin against the Tories.

Sir Keir Starmer is persuading swing voters – many of whom deserted Labour in 2019 – to move back to the party without also losing support from its core base of left-wing voters.

But election danger lurks among those who say they have still not decided who to support or whether to vote at all, YouGov data seen exclusively by i have revealed.

Polling analysis of key groups by the pro-Starmer think-tank Labour Together, shows the key groups of voters – expected to decide the next election – are shifting to Labour.

The groups – labelled the Patriotic Left (or Workington Man) and Disillusioned Suburbans (or Stevenage Woman) – have been identified as the key swing voters up for grabs.

Labour has a comfortable lead against the Conservative Party among both these groups, with significant swings against the Tories.

But in both segments there are still around 40 per cent who remain undecided or who say they are not planning to vote.

The election outcome scenarios created in light of these polls suggests the difference could dramatically reduce a Labour majority at the election. Under another scenario – albeit unlikely – in which Reform voters moved en masse to the Tories, there would be a hung Parliament.

Labour’s share of seats in the House of Commons will be dramatically affected by the choice of undecided swing voters.

The so-called “Patriotic Left” in “Red Wall” seats across the Midlands, North West and North East have swung against the Conservatives after largely supporting them in 2019 with 34 per cent now backing Labour, the polling shows.

It demonstrates significant progress for Labour among this core group. In 2019 just one in five (20 per cent) of these voters supported Labour.

The remaining voters have, however, splintered between Reform (10 per cent), and “none of the above”. And more than one in three (37 per cent) said they would not vote for any of the parties.

Of the so-called “Disillusioned Suburbans” in small cities and towns – identified by the think-tank as the “largest group of voters in the marginal constituencies that will determine the outcome of the next election” – a similar pattern has emerged.

Around a third (31 per cent) are backing the Labour party with only 11 per cent saying that they would vote Conservative.

But more than four in 10 (43 per cent) remain undecided or say that they will not vote. In 2019, a significant proportion of this group (41 per cent) did not vote.

The data underline the reasons behind Sir Keir’s fear – and that of his head of campaigns Morgan McSweeney – not to be complacent in the lead up to the election.

As many as 40% of voters in two key Labour target groups are undecided

This will embolden Conservative headquarters, where Tory election strategists are pinning their hopes on the Labour lead being “soft”, and suggested that the recent by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood were lost not by voters turning to Labour, but Tory voters staying at home.

“If Starmer truly had momentum, those numbers would be huge. The Tories are not turning out,” a Tory MP told i recently.

Michael Fabricant, a former Tory party vice-chairman, also told i : “Conservatives are staying at home at the moment, but we can win if we are seen to deliver.”

With a pre-election budget next week and a potential Autumn Statement before the election, Tory strategists feel there is still everything to play with a focus on getting the Tory vote out.

Labour’s lead in the polls has been holding firm with around a 20-point lead. But often such voting intention polling excludes results from those who say they would not vote, don’t know who they would vote for or who refused to answer.

The Labour Together YouGov polling, carried out in mid-January and including just over 2,000 adults, shows this group makes up more than a third (34 per cent) of all adults.

Josh Simons, director at the think-tank, told i: “Labour has wide leads amongst the groups of voters who will be vital to this election. But this election is far from over.

“Many voters remain undecided, and will remain so for months to come. Labour and the Tories are still in a fight for a lot of crucial votes between now and polling day.”

Polling exposes fragility of Labour lead

Labour has been enjoying a lead in the polls that Sir Keir Starmer would only have dreamt of back in 2020, when he took over as party leader. But the message repeated from the leadership – after every positive poll, every against-the-odds by-election win – has been that the party cannot afford to become complacent. These data underline why this is so crucial.

The party is seeking to reverse a pattern of voters turning away from Labour, to the Conservatives, that culminated in 2019 but had begun many years prior to that crunch election.

Senior sources often point out that voters in target swing seats have been moving away from Labour since 2010 and – even if they are tentatively swinging back to the party now – there vote can in no way be guaranteed.

The fragility, and uncertainty, of the support for Labour among target voters is exemplified in the sheer volume of undecided and disillusioned voters shown here.

Whilst these data are not broken down by specific target seats – making it hard to really know the true impact on an election victory – the fact that this group makes up almost 40 per cent of the group of people Labour is trying to win over shows that there is still work to be done by Starmer and his party.

On the other hand, the polling analysis here shows that concerns Labour would lose its core vote of traditionally left-leaning voters if it spent all its energy trying to win over swing seats have not come to pass.

With little in the way of alternative parties, and clearly a desire to oust the Conservative Government, the majority of the activist and progressive left are sticking with Starmer, despite his move away from the more radical left-wing policies.

Chloe Chaplain

Labour Together has used the data to create modelling which sets out scenarios beyond the sweeping majority with more than 400 seats – a result the think-tank describes as “improbable”.

Instead, it argues that if voters who are currently undecided go back to the party they supported in 2019, the party could be on course for a more conservative majority of 78.

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In another scenario modelled, which predicted the collapse of a Reform UK vote, Labour could be left with no majority at all and a hung Parliament.

While this scenario is considered improbable – not all Reform votes would necessarily to to the Tories – Reform nevertheless poses a threat to the Tories by taking some of their support.

CCHQ strategists will want to persuade many Tory voters to stick with them.

With Reform standing in every seat, and the high-profile former vice-chairman Lee Anderson openly talking about joining Reform, the party will still pose a threat.

In positive news for the Labour leader, the analysis shows the party is not losing the support of its core voters – those traditionally more left-leaning.

Critics of the Starmer leadership, such as grassroots group Momentum, have warned the party would risk losing left-leaning voters without a more progressive policy platform.

But the analysis suggests that the party has not lost significant support from these groups to the Green Party, or to not voting at all.

One group, labelled “Activist Left”, is more supportive of Labour now than in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn – with 62 per cent now supporting the party, 6 points higher than the 56 per cent who backed it under the former leader.

So-called “Centrist Liberals” – older and more affluent left-leaning voters – have swung considerably to Labour since 2019.

Five years ago this group split almost evenly between backing Labour (26 per cent) and the Conservatives (28 per cent).

Now Labour leads among these voters by 28 points, with 41 per cent supporting the party versus 13 per cent supporting the Conservatives.

Christabel Cooper, director of Research at Labour Together, said the analysis indicates support for Labour “across very different types of voters”.

She said: “Starmer has achieved what Corbyn could not. Labour has both held on to its core progressive vote and gained the backing of more socially conservative and centrist segments.”

Who are the key groups identified?

Labour Together split the electorate into six key groups in a 2023 paper.

Of these six groups, the “Patriotic Left” and “Disillusioned Suburbans” were highlighted as being critical to a Labour victory.

The Patriotic Left – “Workington Man”

These make up the so-called red wall seats of Brexit-supporting parts of the North and Midlands. They are older than average and classed as traditionally economically left wing but socially conservative.

Disillusioned Suburbans – “Stevenage Woman”

Another target group these are younger but more economically insecure living in smaller towns and cities. Labour Together defines them as “a little to the left on economics, a touch to the right on social and cultural issues”.

The Activist Left

These make up part of Labour’s core vote – young, well educated and the most progressive group. They live in cities and university towns and are left-leaning economically and very liberal on cultural issues.

Centrist Liberals

Another core group of voters for Labour these are the most affluent group and are usually university educated, living mainly in cities and the South. They are to the left of centre.

English Traditionalists

This group, the oldest of the six, make up part of the core Conservative base. They are generally financially secure, socially conservative and right of centre on economics.

The Rural Right

Another older core group of Tory voters. These are the most financially secure and are the most right wing on economic issues.