Chiefs vs. Dolphins odds, line, time: 2024 NFL Super Wild Card Weekend picks, predictions, by computer model

Sep 9, 2018; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos mascot performs to the crowd in the fourth quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Broncos Stadium at Mile High.

The third-seeded Kansas City Chiefs will try to continue their recent dominance in the all-time series when they host the sixth-seeded Miami Dolphins on Saturday in an AFC matchup during Super Wild Card Weekend of the 2024 NFL playoffs. Kansas City (11-6) has won the last four meetings between the teams, including a 21-14 triumph in Germany in Week 9 this season. Miami (11-6) is seeking its first playoff victory since 2000 as it attempts to overcome the absence of several key injured players and potential sub-zero temperatures.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Dolphins odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 43.5. Before locking in any Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks, you need to see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 183-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 37-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and has nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Chiefs vs. Dolphins and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can see the model’s picks only at SportsLine. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Dolphins vs. Chiefs:

• Chiefs vs. Dolphins spread: Kansas City -4.5
• Chiefs vs. Dolphins over/under: 43.5 points
• Chiefs vs. Dolphins money line: Kansas City -226, Miami +184
• KC: Chiefs are 4-4 against the spread at home this season
• MIA: Dolphins are 1-5 ATS as underdogs this campaign 
• Chiefs vs. Dolphins picks: See picks here

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City was one of the best teams against the pass in the NFL during the regular season, ranking fourth with an average of 176.5 yards allowed. The Chiefs limited Tua Tagovailoa, who led the league with 4,624 passing yards, to just 193 in their Week 9 showdown – the first of only two games in 2023 in which Miami’s quarterback had fewer than 200. Tagovailoa could be in for another rough outing as temperatures could dip below zero at Arrowhead on Saturday, and he is 6-13 in contests in which it was under 70 degrees and has lost the five coldest games of his NFL career.

The Chiefs rested Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco – among others – in their 13-12 victory at the Los Angeles Chargers in their regular-season finale, meaning their top offensive players will be fully energized for Saturday’s matchup. Mahomes, who is 2-0 lifetime against Miami, eclipsed the 4,000-yard mark for the sixth time in as many seasons as Kansas City’s starting QB, finishing sixth in the NFL with 4,183. The two-time Super Bowl MVP was superb in his only previous appearance in a wild-card game as he threw for 404 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-21 triumph over Pittsburgh in 2021. See which team to pick here.

Why the Dolphins can cover

Already without team sacks leader Bradley Chubb (11) and Jaelan Phillips (6.5) due to season-ending injuries, Miami also will be missing three other linebackers on Saturday. Not only did the Dolphins drop a 21-14 decision to Buffalo in the regular-season finale, they also lost Andrew Van Ginkel (foot), Jerome Baker (wrist) and Cameron Goode (knee) for the remainder of the campaign. Cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) didn’t play against the Bills and also will miss the wild-card game, but Miami coach Mike McDaniel expects to have a pair of key players on the other side of the ball back on the field for the showdown with the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Raheem Mostert missed the final two regular-season games (both losses) with knee and ankle ailments but likely will be in Miami’s backfield on Saturday. Despite appearing in only 15 contests, the 31-year-old led the NFL with 18 touchdown runs and set another career high as he ranked 10th in the league with 1,012 rushing yards. Wideout Jayden Waddle, who also sat out Miami’s last two games with an ankle injury, should be back after racking up 1,014 receiving yards in 14 outings this season. See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Dolphins picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the point total, predicting 42 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50% of simulations. You can see the model’s NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine.

So who wins Dolphins vs. Chiefs, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Chiefs spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model on a 183-129 roll on NFL picks, and find out.