ANC crushes opposition in KZN with resounding Imbali victory, EFF and IFP trail with middling results

The ANC produced one of its best KwaZulu-Natal by-election performances of the year, trouncing the opposition in Imbali township just outside Pietermaritzburg.

ANC crushes opposition in KZN with resounding Imbali victory, EFF and IFP trail with middling results

Ward 41 (Imbali) in Msunduzi, uMgungundlovu: ANC 82% (71% PR) EFF 11% (13% PR) IFP 7% (3% PR)

The setting: Imbali township is southwest of the town centre of the provincial capital of Pietermaritzburg. It sits above the Edendale township. Msunduzi is the second-most populous municipality in KwaZulu-Natal. It forms part of the uMgungundlovu district which includes Howick, Richmond and Mooi River.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won Ward 41 by a landslide. There was a tabulation error on the ward ballot which cut the ANC’s majority on the ward ballot. The proportional representation (PR) ballot is a more accurate description of what transpired in Ward 41. The total vote count for the ward ballot was 932 fewer than the PR ballot. The total for the ANC was 929 votes fewer on the ward ballot than the PR ballot. There is a very strong correlation between the lower vote count on the ward ballot and the ANC’s ward-ballot count.

Only two parties reached double figures on the PR ballot – the ANC and the EFF. The IFP finished sixth, well off the pace. It received fewer votes than their Multi-Party Charter partner, the DA.

Voting was relatively consistent in the three voting districts, with the ANC getting 70% or more in all three, and the EFF getting 12% to 15%.

Despite the ANC’s dominance in Imbali, it still lost its outright majority in Msunduzi. The party lost 13 seats in Msunduzi, falling from 53 to 40 in the 82-seat council. The DA grew in Msunduzi, from 14 seats to 16. The EFF was the main beneficiary of the ANC’s decline in support as it surged from three to 10. The IFP too benefited, growing from five eight seats. The Abantu Batho Congress (ABC) won two and a range of smaller parties won a single seat. The ANC won the mayoral chain by obtaining the support of some of the smaller parties.

The by-election: Ward councillor Mabhungu Mkhize was shot and killed in the ward he represented. Three people were arrested and appeared in court. They abandoned their bail application. The ANC, EFF and IFP contested this by-election. The DA endorsed the IFP. The combined percentage of the Multi-Party Charter from 2021 was 6%.

In March 2023, the IFP shocked the ANC in the safe seat of Sweetwaters near Pietermaritzburg. The IFP was hoping to build on that success in Ward 41, although it has less of a base in Ward 41.

The ANC recorded a resounding victory in the by-election. It won more than 80% of the vote in three of the four voting districts in the ward. This included the Unit 14 Community Hall, the most vote-rich part of the ward. Here the ANC bagged more than 1,100 votes to get 84% of the vote, well up from the 71% it garnered in the district in 2021.

It was a mixed bag for the EFF. It held onto second place but declined in three of the four voting districts in the ward. It did grow in the Philani Primary School District, from 13% to 21%. While the party’s overall percentage vote share declined, it was not as severe as other recent KwaZulu-Natal by-elections.

The IFP showed some growth. It did outperform the combined total of the IFP and the DA from 2021, but not by much. Its growth was centred on Zamazulu High School where the party grew from 3% to 15% and beat the EFF for second place in this district. The IFP will need to show more growth in townships like Imbali if it wants to be in a position to take power from the ANC and its allies in 2024.

Poll: 36% (43% PR)

The next by-election will be on 29 November when the DA will defend a competitive seat in Mangaung. The party will have to fend off the ANC and the Patriotic Alliance in this ward. DM