Cyclone odds shorten for northern Australia

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A tropical low that has formed over the Gulf of Carpentaria has a moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by tonight or tomorrow, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

The BoM rates the weather system’s chances of further development at 25 per cent by 11pm tonight, rising to 40 per cent by 11am tomorrow, before declining again to five per cent and below by Saturday.

Weatherzone reported that the low should strengthen further as it moves slowly over the Gulf of Carpentaria during the next day and a half, with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures feeding moisture into the low.

“This length of time the low will spend over water increases the risk of the system developing into a tropical cyclone on Thursday and Friday,” the weather reporting site said.

“The next tropical cyclone to develop in Australian waters will be named Lincoln.”

Whether or not the system develops into a cyclone, it is likely to bring heavy rain to the Gulf region, the Top End, and the Kimberley on the weekend and into early next week.

Widespread falls of between 100mm-200mm are expected, Weatherzone said, with isolated totals of up to 500mm.

If a cyclone does develop, heavy winds and damaging surf could also have an impact along the coast and islands in the region.