Russia Unable To Sustain Scale of Losses: ISW

Russian servicemen ride atop military vehicles during the Victory Day military parade in central Moscow on May 9, 2024.The Institute for the Study of War has said that Russia will not be able to replenish stocks of its Soviet-era vehicles in Ukraine.

Russian equipment losses in Ukraine are thought to be so high that it will be difficult to find replacements as Moscow draws down on its vast stores of Soviet-era vehicles.

That assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Wednesday follows reports on how satellite imagery had shown the extent of depletion of Russian military vehicles in storage facilities over the course of the war in Ukraine.

Open-source intelligence X account Jompy, which tracks Russian military depots, posted on May 6 that Russian stores of armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) had decreased by nearly a third (32 percent) compared with prewar levels—down from 15,152 in 2021 to 10,389, a loss of 4,763.

The X account said that satellite imagery had also found Russia had pulled most of its MT-LB multipurpose AFVs from storage, where only 922 remain compared with 2,527 prewar.

Its tally suggested that only 244 BMD airborne amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) remained, compared with 637 before the full-scale invasion.

Figures also revealed dwindling reserves of other vehicles, such as newer model BTR-60s, 70s, and 80s and the account said Russia is only fielding between 1,000 and 2,000 of its remaining MT-LB multi-purpose, amphibious AFVs.

The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said on February 12 Russia could probably sustain its annual rate of vehicle losses—over 3,000 AFVs for at least two or three years—mainly by reactivating vehicles from storage.

The IISS said Moscow’s forces lost over 3,000 AFVs last year, and around 8,000 of the vehicles over the course of the war, forcing it to reactivate at least 1,180 main battle tanks and about 2,470 IFVs and armored personnel carriers from storage.

Meanwhile, the Open source intelligence X account Marsed posted on Wednesday that satellite imagery has suggested that during the war Russia has removed roughly 60 percent of its artillery systems from a towed artillery storage base.

However, half the remaining artillery systems at the base are probably unusable because of degradation in storage and too old to be compatible with modern ammunition, the post added.

The ISW said Wednesday that losses of Russia’s Soviet-era stores of vehicles are at levels far higher than can be compensated for by its defense industrial base, which will not be able to replace them “for many years.”

The think tank added that Russia “will likely struggle to adequately supply its units with materiel in the long term without transferring the Russian economy to a wartime footing,” which Putin has so far tried to avoid.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.

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