Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR's Las Vegas race

NASCAR Cup Series driver Ross Chastain.

NASCAR is headed to Las Vegas this weekend for the third race of the season. Let’s highlight three drivers — a favorite, a contender and a dark horse — to watch out for during Sunday’s Pennzoil 400, as well as one who you probably don’t want to put your money on.

Favorite: Ross Chastain (+1000, per Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon)

It was extremely tempting to go with the odds-on favorite in Kyle Larson here, as in 2023 he was a late caution in the spring away from sweeping both Las Vegas races. That said, at +450 he doesn’t give you much of a payoff, and Chastain is also exceptionally good at Vegas.

In 2022, he led a combined 151 laps in the two races there and earned a pair of top-three finishes. His Trackhouse Racing team took a slight step back last year, but it appears poised for a resurgence and has some momentum with teammate Daniel Suarez’s victory in Atlanta.

Chastain has a great opportunity to assert himself as one of the early favorites in the 2024 title race, and sitting tied for the fourth-highest odds at +1000, he may be your best bet on the season’s first non-drafting track.

Contender: Bubba Wallace (+2000)

Wallace’s season is off to such a strong start that he can’t even really be considered a dark horse with his +2000 odds, so he’s instead been bumped up to “contender” status (also because there’s an even longer shot who deserves to be highlighted).

Wallace finished fourth in this race a year ago and is always fast on the 1.5-mile intermediates, and Sunday should be no exception. The only question is whether or not he and his 23XI Racing team can execute, as both he and teammate Tyler Reddick have been known to consistently run into trouble with pit road issues and parts failures.

Dark horse: Erik Jones (+5500)

Those +5500 odds for Jones almost have to be a typo. He’s a good intermediate racer who showed the ability to consistently run inside the top 10 at the end of last season on such tracks. Sunday will be his Legacy Motor Club team’s first opportunity to truly showcase itself since switching manufacturers to Toyota.

It’s far from a sure thing that Jones will run up front, but he may be your best value in the field. If you’re the type who likes to gamble on the underdog, he’s worth the risk.

Avoid: Ryan Blaney (+1000)

Blaney has the same odds as Chastain at +1000, but he does not seem to be worth that same money — at least, unless Ford and Team Penske suddenly figure how to run well on intermediate tracks where they have vastly struggled since the introduction of the Gen-7 car.

Since 2022, Blaney’s best finish at Las Vegas is sixth last fall, and he didn’t lead in either 2023 race. He may be considered a top contender due to his recent hot streak overall, dating to winning the title last season, but it’s hard to have much confidence in him this week.

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