How China is preparing for a 'protracted war' in Indo-Pacific region

How China is preparing for a ‘protracted war’ in Indo-Pacific region

According to an International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) analysis, China is drawing lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and is beginning to gear up for a “protracted” conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.

China’s approach to preparing for a potential prolonged conflict in the Indo-Pacific region is multifaceted and strategic. This preparation is not only military in nature but also involves significant legal and structural changes within China to ensure a seamless integration of civilian resources and infrastructure with military capabilities.

Learning from the Ukraine conflict

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) notes that China is closely observing the conflict in Ukraine, which underscores the importance of long-term readiness and the integration of various national resources for sustained military engagement. This observation is guiding China’s preparation for its own potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.

What all China is doing

China has been implementing legal reforms to make it easier for reservists and veterans to rejoin their former military units. This step indicates a move towards enhancing the readiness and flexibility of the Chinese military by ensuring that experienced personnel can be quickly mobilized in times of need.

Beyond personnel, China is also focusing on the utilization of civilian infrastructure for military purposes. This includes granting military forces access to civilian fuel supplies and infrastructure, which would be crucial in maintaining logistical support for operations over an extended period.

Strategic implications for the Indo-Pacific

The actions taken by China signal a strategic shift towards ensuring readiness for a “protracted” war scenario. This not only involves direct military preparations but also the strategic use of national resources, highlighting a comprehensive approach to warfare that encompasses both military and civilian sectors.

The measures being adopted by China reflect deep strategic considerations about the nature of future conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region. By preparing for scenarios that require sustained engagement, China is signaling its intent to maintain its interests and security objectives over the long term.

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These developments have significant implications for global security and the military balance in the Indo-Pacific region. Other countries in the region and global powers are closely watching China’s moves, which could lead to adjustments in their own security and military strategies in response to China’s preparations.

‘Dangerous decade’

According to ISIS’s latest “Military Balance” report, conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas war, the ongoing strife in Ukraine, and rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific and Africa signal the dawn of a perilous era.

The IISS’s annual report paints a grim picture of the current global security situation. “The current military-security situation heralds what is likely to be a more dangerous decade, characterized by the brazen application by some of military power to pursue claims — evoking a ‘might is right’ approach — as well as the desire among like-minded democracies for stronger bilateral and multilateral defense ties in response,’’ the report said.

Global defense spending rose 9% to $2.2 trillion last year as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now entering its third year, heightened concerns that China and other militarily powerful states may try to impose their will on neighbors, the IISS said.

This “era of insecurity” is not just reshaping geopolitical dynamics but is also transforming the global defence-industrial landscape. Notably, the United States and Europe are significantly increasing their production of missiles and ammunition. This surge in military manufacturing comes “after decades of underinvestment,” underscoring a strategic shift towards bolstering defense capabilities in response to the evolving threats, the IISS report said.

(With inputs from agencies)

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