Risk of dangerous outbreak of tornadoes in plains

Let’s bring in our Chief Meteorologist, John Porter. And you know, John, let’s let’s take a one by one. You have the ingredients. The first ingredient. You need it generally on the warm side. You sure do. And here is that. Set up plenty of warm air across the central plains. And not only is it warm, it’s increasingly moist. Take a look at these dew points that are in the upper 60s and low 70s. And that warm moist air is being drawn north by gusty winds from the South right into the plains. This is the air that’s primed for severe thunderstorm and tornado development. You know, John, you and I had a a famous Penn State professor doctor Michael Fritsch and he always talked about when you analyze the dew point temperature, when you analyze the wind, it always points, it always points to where the severe weather is going to start. And this is a classic example of that. Look at that, that tongue of of higher moisture air in the low levels coming right up into Kansas, Oklahoma and toward the Red River. That’s why we’re so concerned about this area. And the problem with today, Bernie, is if you were to look at a meteorology textbook about how do we get a tornado outbreak in the Southern Plains, it’s this set up today. Yeah, let’s talk about that. So we have the warmth and humidity, but you need a trigger. Well, you’ve got this strong upper low, John. And even on the water vapor loop, look how fast things are moving on the southern tail of that across Arizona and New Mexico. My eye is immediately caught to that, Bernie. There’s that spin associated with that upper low, but watch how quick the clouds are moving across New Mexico in a West TX. This is that acceleration jet stream disturbance that’s going to be moving out into the plains, That’s the trigger that’s going to ignite this whole set up here later today. And the energy map. A couple of things to point out here, John, not only what we’re going to be looking at as the red, but I’m going to stop this here. Let’s talk about difluins, what that is and how that is important. I walked the winds around this area of this upper level low pressure area. They’re going to be coming around just like this and see how the air is spreading out here across it’s fanning out across the plains states. And when you see that type of configuration that means that the air is going to be lifted quite rapidly deep into the atmosphere leading to the development of these severe thunderstorms. And this is one of those main things that you just look back as with all the experience of AccuWeather Meteorologist, we look at that and we say this is a dangerous set up. Yeah, let me, let’s clear that John. That’s the other thing. Watch that energy then a lot of red showing up as well as we head toward the afternoon and evening. Sure does that shows you the intensity of this jet stream disturbance, this upper level low. Also why we think it’s going to be more of a line set across portions of Kansas and the thunderstorms could be more widely separated but still very potent across Oklahoma. And that’s we’re especially concerned about these long track and particularly intense tornadoes. All right, John, let’s go take a look at the future radar here as we go forward here. There we go about mid afternoon, the convection I’m going to let this play, we’re going to stop this late afternoon and evening and there’s that destructive line. There it is and that’s how it’s setting up notice at 7:00 PM Central. This is the kind of thing, if you live in Wichita or Oklahoma City or anywhere along that I-35 corridor, know where you are going to be in a safe spot to ride out the storm if a tornado or severe thunderstorm threatens your community later. So you want to get there early this afternoon and stay there if you can. You don’t want to be driving around during this situation and then watch the whole situation congeals into a squaw line of severe thunderstorms. This may have embedded tornadoes. It’s going to race into eastern Kansas, southeastern Oklahoma and toward Missouri, western Missouri, and then down even toward Bentonville, AR before everything shifts north and east into tomorrow morning. Still a damaging wind concern near Chicago first thing tomorrow. And let’s take a look at the risk map, John. And of course, it was this morning at 6:00, the decision was made. We were all a MAP discussion about that extreme risk for for someone that is the chief of the meteorology department here at AccuWeather, that extreme risk is very rare. We only do this, Bernie, once or twice a year. It’s our designation for the most significant concerns about widespread and intense severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. And notice I’ve got our spotlight tool right on the Area I-35 corridor from Wichita to Oklahoma City. But don’t let your guard down, of course, anywhere else across the Central Plains. This is going to be a widespread, severe weather event, and we want people to be prepared, not scared, Know where you can seek safe shelter. And I want to urge you if you have people, if you have family members in this area, give them a call. Send them a text message. Let them know it truly can save their life. Ask them to download the AccuWeather app, Turn on push notifications, and we’ll keep you updated here and on the AccuWeather Network. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter. Again, John, thanks for joining us this morning.