Rishi Sunak’s 5 options to turn the tide for the Tories after local election defeats

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak congratulates Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen on his re-election on Friday – he is now the Tories’ only metro mayor (Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)

Stick to the plan has been the message coming out of the Government since damaging local election results over the weekend.

But Rishi Sunak is facing calls from within his own party to change course to save the Tories from a general election drubbing.

He does not have many options left to move the dial.

Here are some:

Rwanda deportation plan

Widely acknowledged in the Tories and beyond in Westminster as one of the few cards Mr Sunak has left to play, if the Prime Minister can get deportation flights going it may help win back some voters who have drifted right to Reform.

However for a decisive impact, Mr Sunak will need to demonstrate that the controversial policy is beginning to have its much heralded deterrent effect on Channel crossings, given voters were promised the Tories would “stop the boats”.

It appears unlikely the scheme can be scaled up quickly enough for that impact to take hold ahead of a general election, although ministers have been pointing to asylum seekers fleeing the UK for Ireland as evidence the plan is already working.

The economy

The Prime Minister has all but no chance of a miraculous comeback unless and until the economy begins to perform significantly better, given the cost of living and economy invariably come out on top of opinion polls as voters.

Mr Sunak will be hoping for data showing the UK is over its recession in the latest quarterly growth figures on Friday.

Inflation is expected to drop to its 2 per cent target soon, which could be accompanied by the Bank of England acting to bring down interest rates which have risen sharply in the last two years, hammering family finances.

The Prime Minister will hope this generates enough of a feel-good factor for voters to begin listening to the Tories again, after he made cutting inflation and boosting growth two key promises.

Tax cuts

Suella Braverman and other right-wingers want Mr Sunak to go even further than the 4p he has taken off national insurance (NICs) in the Budget and Autumn Statement.

But the Prime Minister is likely to resist calls to cut income tax as he has pledged to abolish NICs entirely in the long-term.

The Treasury has judged that NICs cuts deliver more of a growth effect for the cash spent than more expensive income tax reductions.

But Ms Braverman and others will continue arguing for a change of focus to the more totemic income tax, given this will help Tory voters in pensioners and because the NICs cuts have barely delivered a dent in the polls.

Be radical

Mr Sunak could try to shake things up by promising to quit the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) in a bid to get his Rwanda scheme going.

But other radical moves, such as his proposed smoking ban, have failed to move the dial much.

Something turns up

Perhaps one of the main reasons Mr Sunak appears to be going long for a general election in autumn or later is the hope simply that something might turn up to change the political weather.

It could be a scandal engulfing Labour, or perhaps Sir Keir Starmer’s party will wither under the spotlight of appearing like a government-in-waiting.

Mr Sunak will be hoping for an unexpected twist yet.