RCB stay alive, Punjab Kings knocked out: All IPL playoff scenarios in 10 points
With 12 games left to be played in the league stage of IPL 2024, there remain nearly 4,100 possible combinations of match results. No one is yet certain of making the playoffs, but two teams (MI and PBKS) are totally ruled out.
Use TOI’s interactive utility to see possible playoff scenariosWe look at the chances of each team:
KKR – The team currently topping the table have a 36% chance of finishing the sole toppers and they could do that even with just one win from their remaining three games. Their chances of finishing joint toppers on points are an impressive 62.5%. Yet, they are still not sure of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining games, they could end up tied fourth with DC or LSG depending on results in other games. But there’s just a 0.4% chance of such a scenario.
RR – Like KKR, they have a 36% chance of being sole toppers at the end of the league phase and a 62.5% chance of being at least tied for the first spot on points. Yet, they too are still not sure of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining games, they could end up tied fourth with DC or LSG depending on results in other games. But again, there’s just a 0.4% chance of such a scenario.
IPL ORANGE CAP | IPL PURPLE CAP | IPL POINTS TABLESRH – Currently in third place, SRH have nearly 94% chance of finishing among the top four in terms of points. The best they can hope for is a joint first spot with one to three other teams and the chances of that are a little under 5%.
CSK – Fourth-placed CSK have a little over 73% chance of finishing within the top four slots either singly or jointly. Like SRH, the best they can do is tied for top spot with one to three other teams. And the chances of that are a mere 4%.
DC – Lying in fifth place at the moment, DC have no chance of finishing the toppers or even joint toppers. Their chances of ending up among the top four singly or jointly are just under 50%. Their best case scenario is joint second on points and there’s a little under 4% chance of that happening.
LSG – At the moment in sixth place, LSG’s chances of making the top four singly or jointly are just under 50%. Like DC, the best they can do is tie for the second spot with one to three other teams. The chances of that happening are just under 4%.
RCB – Despite Thursday’s win, RCB remain in seventh place and the best they can hope for is tied third or fourth. The win, however, upped the chances of that from around 8% to over 16%.
GT – The 2022 title holders find themselves at the bottom of the table and their chances of progressing are slim at a little under 8%.
PBKS – Thursday’s loss to RCB has effectively ended Punjab’s 2024 campaign as they can no longer make it to the last four. Even the chances of a joint fifth spot are a lowly 0.3%.
MI – MI were already out of the playoffs. They too can at best end up joint 5th and even that is just a 0.6% chance.
In short: Bet on KKR and RR making the playoffs to be joined by two out of CSK, SRH, LSG and DC, with the first two having a distinctly better chance. For RCB or GT to get into the mix would need much to go their way.
How we calculate the chances
With 12 games remaining, there remain 4,096 possible combinations of match outcomes. We look at each one of those and what it would mean in terms of the final rankings of the teams. Then we work out the percentage of outcomes that would give team “A” a chance of finishing in the top four, or the first spot and so on. The underlying assumption is that any given match is a 50-50 game, not unreasonable given how the IPL has unfolded this year and in other years. For instance, of the 4,096 combinations, SRH finish among the top four slots singly or jointly in 3,840 combinations, which means a 93.8% chance of making the top four spots singly or jointly.