Buying China 10-year government bond might not be a silly idea over the medium term: Strategist

You believe that China is not uninvestable and it looks like you’re not the only one with that view. Given the fact that the Chinese market has come off its early February lows and is trying to find some kind of stabilisation, what’s the case? Yeah, I mean, for the equity market, the case is so many people are so negative on China and valuations are relatively cheap. I mean, that’s the main case for China. I mean, that Q1 GDP was, was, was good. I mean, there were parts of it. There were, there were pretty good parts of it. There were still soft. The external facing side, look, we’ve talked about the US potentially not cutting interest rates this year. Part of that is because the economy is doing so well and China’s benefiting on terms of the export side. But I’m actually looking a little bit more about the fixed income, the credit side, the, the, the, the well, the government bond yield side. And you could probably call me crazy for wanting to buy 10 year Chinese government bonds at 2 1/4%. But if you do think that China is the, the, the credit side is, is decreasing. So they, they, they’re borrowing less, they’re going to be creating fewer currency, fewer renminbi. They need to keep cutting interest rates. Monetary policy needs to be looser and looser and looser to try and get themselves out of the Japanification. I suspect yields in China are going to continue to go down. And buying 10 year Chinese government bonds at 2 1/4% might not seem that silly over the medium term. And could we also see also an, excuse me, an appreciation of the Chinese UN as a result? Yeah. So again, this is very non consensus. I mean, a lot of people think that the the Chinese currency will depreciate and against the dollar it has of course, it’s been weakening, but on a trade rated basis, it’s been going up and up and up. And it’s it’s only been stronger for a few months in the last well several years. So, and the key driver here is the, the, the, the reduction in credit. So China used to just create so much debt over many, many years and that was creating currency that ultimately should weaken currency. But as they retrench, as this credit decreased in size, you could, because there’s fewer renminbi about, you could see appreciation of that currency. It happened in Japan in the 90s and early 2000s. The current most people thought the currency would weaken, the yen would weaken over that period, but actually it appreciated and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if China had that same that that that same theme over the next few years. You know, Ben, you’re probably you’re some consolation here. You may not be totally crazy for buying a 10 year job, 10 year Chinese govies, right, because they probably are safer bet than Chinese credits. We’d probably be fair to say what about and this is going to get interesting, right. Not that long ago we talked about EM, EM high yield HY what we actually meant was Chinese property developer high yield. Obviously the the waiting that’s been totally reject right now. But how do some of these Chinese high yield credits look the property developer ones? I mean, are they are any of them worth the risk? Is that still really difficult part of the market? I mean, for, for the private developers, they’re mostly wiped out. I mean, so it doesn’t really matter what you think ’cause they’re worth very, very little on the, on the, the government owned, the state owned ones. I mean, that’s the crucial aspect. I mean, we’re all looking at Van Ki, aren’t we, to see how they go over the next few months, if they survive or not. Hopefully they do survive. They draw a line in the sand and say these are the ones that are going to go forward. And the Chinese government are obviously trying to support the property sector, trying to support consumption going forward. And this is going to be a real crucial test. So hopefully that would that will that will stop the rot, yeah.