Professor Allen Lichtman's 2024 presidential pick

A distinguished professor of history at American University, Allen Lichtman has made a name for himself through one unusual talent: He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine elections out of the 10 most recent presidential races, using a model he invented known as the 13 keys.

The only election he has incorrectly predicted was the 2000 presidential election, selecting Al Gore over George Bush in a prediction he insists was the correct choice, saying the 2000 election was stolen.

The 13 keys method was created in partnership with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. The pair adapted models used to predict earthquakes to better understand the American political sphere.

According to the American University’s website, the 13 keys are:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.  
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.  
4. Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.  
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.  
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.  
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.  
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.  
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.  
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.  
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. 
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.  
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. 

President Joe Biden gives his remarks during a campaign event for re-election on April 16, 2024 in Scranton, Pennsylvania. President Biden, who grew up in Scranton, will be in Pennsylvania for three straight days of election campaigning.

Lichtman is not slated to give his official prediction until August, but so far, he thinks Joe Biden has the upper hand.

“A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” he told the Guardian.

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Maya Homan is a 2024 election fellow at USA TODAY, focusing on Georgia politics. Follow her on X, formerly Twitter, as @MayaHoman.

This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: Professor Allen Lichtman’s 2024 presidential pick